With the continued expansion of aluminum processing and downstream industries in Southeast Asia, regional aluminum billet production, consumption and trade markets have attracted growing attention. Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are not only important aluminum billet production and consumption hubs in Southeast Asia, but also play a key role in regional aluminum billet trade flows. Markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia, meanwhile, are still at a stage where local processing capacity development and demand for imported aluminum billet are growing simultaneously. Since March 2026, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has caused significant disruption to the global aluminum supply chain. On the one hand, uncertainty over the supply of primary aluminum and aluminum processed products from the Middle East has increased, pushing up procurement interest in primary aluminum, aluminum billet and secondary aluminum resources across Asian markets outside China. On the other hand, fluctuations in crude oil prices and ocean freight costs have further lifted regional aluminum processing and trading costs. Against this backdrop, LME aluminum prices, Asian regional premiums and Southeast Asian local aluminum billet processing fees have all fluctuated to varying degrees. At the same time, changes in the SHFE/LME price ratio have periodically affected the export arbitrage window for Chinese aluminum processed products. When overseas aluminum prices are stronger than domestic prices and export margins improve, Chinese aluminum processed products and some processing-trade resources show greater willingness to flow into the Southeast Asian market, creating certain disruptions to local billet supply-demand dynamics and quotations. When the price spread narrows, however, regional pricing returns to a framework driven jointly by local supply, imports from the Middle East and other overseas resources. Trade Flows From the perspective of export destinations, the flow of Southeast Asian products under HS760120 is relatively concentrated. In 2025, the top ten export destinations for Southeast Asian HS760120 products totaled around 1.2695 million mt, accounting for approximately 93.3% of total Southeast Asian exports. China was the largest destination, with full-year exports of around 602,100 mt, accounting for approximately 44.3%. Japan, Vietnam and India followed, with around 149,300 mt, 143,500 mt and 111,700 mt respectively, accounting for approximately 11.0%, 10.5% and 8.2%. It should be noted that HS760120 includes primary aluminum alloy ingots, secondary aluminum alloy ingots, other aluminum alloy billets and some cast aluminum alloy products. Therefore, this data mainly serves as a reference for observing trade flows of unwrought aluminum alloys and aluminum alloy billets in Southeast Asia, and cannot be directly equated with 6063 aluminum billet export volumes. Entering 2026, affected by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, uncertainty in the global supply chain for primary aluminum and aluminum processed products increased, and trade flows of aluminum raw materials and aluminum billets in Asia saw certain adjustments. Data shows that total Southeast Asian HS760120 exports fell to around 88,800 mt in February 2026, before rebounding to around 110,700 mt in March and further increasing to around 116,600 mt in April. From February to April, cumulative growth reached approximately 31.2%. In terms of destination changes, China remained the largest export destination, although exports to China declined in April compared with March. India, South Korea, Taiwan, China and Japan showed more obvious increases from March to April. Among them, exports to India rose from around 8,200 mt in February to around 15,700 mt in April; exports to South Korea increased from around 2,400 mt in February to around 10,000 mt in April; exports to Taiwan, China climbed from around 1,500 mt in February to around 4,100 mt in April; while exports to Japan recovered to around 13,700 mt in April. Overall, the rebound in Southeast Asian HS760120 exports from February to April 2026 reflected, on the one hand, the gradual recovery of regional trade after the Chinese New Year holiday. On the other hand, it may also have been related to Asian buyers increasing procurement of Southeast Asian regional resources and supplementing alternative supply sources after the Middle East conflict raised supply risks for overseas primary aluminum, aluminum billet and secondary aluminum. Considering that China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China are all important aluminum processing and consumption markets in Asia, the increase in Southeast Asian product flows to these markets indicates that regional unwrought aluminum alloys and aluminum alloy billets have played a certain supplementary and balancing role in trade during periods of supply chain disruption. For the 6063 aluminum billet market, this trend cannot be directly equated with changes in 6063 aluminum billet exports, but it can serve as an important reference for assessing the circulation activity of aluminum billets and aluminum alloy raw materials in Southeast Asia, regional substitution demand and fluctuations in processing fees. Market and Price Analysis With the continued expansion of aluminum processing and downstream enterprises in Southeast Asia, the situation of 6063 aluminum billet differs across countries due to variations in processing levels and downstream demand. Overall, Malaysia and Thailand are the main aluminum billet producing countries in the region and also have certain local consumption capacity. Vietnam’s aluminum processing capacity is growing rapidly, but some local quotations are still mainly for non-homogenized cast billets. Markets such as Cambodia and the Philippines remain at a stage where local processing capacity development coexists with demand for imported aluminum billet. In terms of homogenization status, mainstream 6063 aluminum billet quotations in Malaysia and Thailand usually already include homogenization treatment, and the relevant homogenization cost is mostly included in the aluminum billet processing fee quoted by producers. A small number of non-homogenized 6063 aluminum billet quotations also exist in the Thai market, which can be used to observe the basic processing cost of cast billets. The situation in Vietnam is different. As some enterprises mainly quote non-homogenized cast billets, the apparent processing fee for 6063 aluminum billet is usually around $50-100/mt lower than homogenized quotations in Malaysia and Thailand. Aluminum billet homogenization is an important heat-treatment process in the production of 6063 aluminum billet. It usually refers to placing cast aluminum billets into a homogenizing furnace for heating, holding and cooling treatment, so that the internal composition distribution of the billet becomes more uniform and microstructural segregation formed during casting is improved. For 6063 aluminum billet, homogenization helps improve stability in the subsequent extrusion process, reduce extrusion cracking, surface defects and performance fluctuations, and improve the surface quality and yield of extruded profiles. Therefore, in the aluminum extrusion value chain, homogenized aluminum billet generally has higher use value than non-homogenized cast billet. According to SMM market research, since March 2026, under the influence of factors such as the escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, tighter supply of overseas primary aluminum and aluminum billet resources, and fluctuations in energy and ocean freight costs, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in major Southeast Asian countries rose to varying degrees. Among them, processing fees for homogenized 6063 aluminum billet in Malaysia and Thailand once increased from the previous $200-250/mt to $250-300/mt, with some high-end quotations even exceeding $300/mt during the peak period. As the Middle East situation eased periodically in mid-June, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in Malaysia and Thailand declined. At present, mainstream 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in Malaysia have stabilized around $250/mt, and mainstream processing fees for homogenized aluminum billet in Thailand have also stabilized around $250/mt. However, due to differences in raw material structure, product status and quotation basis among enterprises, processing fees still show a wide range. In Thailand, some 6063 aluminum billet processing fees have fallen to as low as around $100-150/mt. In Vietnam, from March to June, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees rose from the previous $150-200/mt to $200-250/mt, before falling back to around $200/mt in mid-June. In addition, from the perspective of the imported aluminum billet arrival market, from May to June, SMM learned that CIF Thailand and Malaysia 6063 aluminum billet premiums/discounts were mostly around a premium of $100/mt, while some low-priced resources even fell to a discount of around $100/mt. These resources were mainly 6063 aluminum billets processed in China under processing trade and then re-exported to the Southeast Asian market. Amid cost advantages and an increase in cargo inflows at certain stages, these resources exerted some impact on the local aluminum billet market in Southeast Asia. From March to April, affected by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, uncertainty over some Middle Eastern aluminum supply increased. Asian buyers in India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China showed higher interest in Southeast Asian aluminum billets and related aluminum alloy resources, driving some Southeast Asian aluminum billet resources to flow out of the region and supporting stronger regional quotations. However, entering May and June, as Chinese aluminum billets flowed into markets such as Thailand and Malaysia through processing trade and re-export channels, competition pressure faced by local Southeast Asian aluminum billet plants increased. SMM research shows that sales pressure for some 6063 aluminum billet producers in Malaysia and Thailand has increased compared with earlier levels, and low-priced imported arrival resources have put certain downward pressure on local ex-works processing fees and the transaction price center. Outlook for Southeast Asian Aluminum Processing Looking ahead, the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market will continue to evolve around regional processing capacity expansion, import substitution, changes in raw material structure and overseas low-carbon requirements. In the short term, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam will remain the core markets for 6063 aluminum billet production and consumption in Southeast Asia. Malaysia and Thailand have relatively mature local billet casting and homogenization capacity, and their pricing systems are closer to a quotation logic based on “LME + regional premium + homogenized processing fee.” Vietnam, meanwhile, still has room for growth in aluminum billet demand as aluminum extrusion and downstream processing capacity improves, but the quotation basis for homogenized and non-homogenized products still needs to be further differentiated. Although local sample coverage in markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia remains limited at present, with the advancement of local aluminum processing projects, future demand for imported aluminum billet, secondary aluminum billet and intra-regional trade flows will remain worth monitoring. In the medium to long term, CBAM and overseas customers’ low-carbon procurement requirements may further drive segmentation in the price system of the Southeast Asian aluminum value chain. For the Southeast Asian aluminum billet market, the impact of CBAM may not necessarily be directly reflected through large-scale exports of aluminum billet itself to Europe, but may instead be transmitted through the export value chain of aluminum profiles, window and door profiles, industrial profiles and other deep-processed products. In the future, when European customers procure aluminum processed products from Southeast Asia, they may pay greater attention to raw material sources, the ratio of primary aluminum, in-house new scrap and aluminum scrap, carbon emission data during production, supply chain traceability and third-party verification capability. Against this backdrop, enterprises with stable homogenization capacity, clear raw material structures, the ability to provide emissions data and low-carbon material options may gain stronger advantages in securing export orders and price negotiations. From the perspective of the price system, CBAM may not immediately drive a one-sided increase in Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fees, but it will raise market requirements for differentiating “product status” and “raw material attributes.” In the future, price spreads between liquid aluminum direct-cast billets, remelted aluminum ingot billets and remelted aluminum scrap billets, price spreads between homogenized and non-homogenized aluminum billets, and differences between CIF imported aluminum billet premiums and local ex-works processing fees are all expected to become key areas of market attention. As the aluminum processing industry in Southeast Asia continues to expand, the 6063 aluminum billet market may gradually develop from relatively broad trade quotations in the past toward a more segmented price system differentiated by country, alloy grade, homogenization status, raw material attribute and trade term. SMM Price Points Against the backdrop of regional processing expansion and low-carbon trends, Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fees have gradually become one of the key price indicators followed by the market. To help enterprises better track price changes in the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market, SMM, after market research and improvement of its pricing methodology, will add a series of Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fee, calculated reference price and CIF premium/discount price points starting from 3rd July 2026 (Friday) onward for market reference. The Southeast Asian 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium price points will be updated on a weekly basis every Friday at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. Due to differences in settlement methods among enterprises, the full aluminum billet price may vary. For reference, it can be estimated using the following formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price + Quarterly MJP + 6063 Aluminum Billet Processing Fee】. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: Cambodia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Cambodia, USD/tonne Malaysia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Malaysia, USD/tonne Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium, ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne Vietnam 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium, ex-works Vietnam, USD/tonne The SMM Southeast Asian 6063 Aluminum Billet price points will be updated on a daily basis every working day at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. The SMM calculated reference price will be derived using the formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price (D-1) + Quarterly MJP + Latest 6063 Aluminum Billet Processing Fee】. Based on this, SMM will publish low-end, high-end and average calculated reference prices. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: SMM Cambodia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Cambodia, USD/tonne SMM Malaysia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Malaysia, USD/tonne SMM Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne SMM Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized), ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne SMM Vietnam 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized), ex-works Vietnam, USD/tonne At the same time, to provide a reference comparison for the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing and trading market, SMM will also launch CIF Southeast Asia 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium price points for market reference. The CIF Southeast Asia 6063 aluminum billet premium/discount price points will be updated on a weekly basis every Friday at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. Due to differences in settlement methods among enterprises, the full imported aluminum billet price may vary. For reference, it can be settled using the following formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price + Quarterly MJP + 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium/Discount】. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: CIF Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium Summary Overall, the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market is currently at a stage where regional processing capacity expansion, trade flow adjustments and price system segmentation are taking place simultaneously. In the short term, Middle East geopolitical conflicts, changes in overseas primary aluminum and aluminum billet supply, and fluctuations in energy and ocean freight costs will continue to affect Southeast Asian aluminum billet processing fees and import premiums/discounts. At the same time, changes in the SHFE/LME price ratio will also continue to periodically affect the willingness of Chinese aluminum processed products and related aluminum billet resources to flow into the Southeast Asian market. From the perspective of market structure, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam remain the core markets for 6063 aluminum billet production, consumption and trade circulation in Southeast Asia. Among them, Malaysia and Thailand have relatively mature pricing systems for homogenized aluminum billet, while Vietnam still requires separate differentiation in price basis due to the relatively high share of non-homogenized cast billet quotations. Going forward, as local processing capacity develops in markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia, changes in regional imported aluminum billet, secondary aluminum billet and local processing fees will also become areas worth continuous tracking. In the medium to long term, CBAM and overseas low-carbon procurement requirements will further increase the importance attached by the Southeast Asian aluminum processing value chain to raw material structure, homogenization capability, carbon emission data and supply chain traceability. Although CBAM may not necessarily drive an immediate one-sided increase in 6063 aluminum billet processing fees, it will prompt the market to more clearly distinguish between different product bases, including liquid aluminum direct-cast billets, remelted aluminum ingot billets, remelted aluminum scrap billets, as well as homogenized and non-homogenized products. Against this backdrop, the launch of SMM Southeast Asia 6063 aluminum billet processing fee, calculated reference price and CIF premium/discount price points will help the market more clearly track changes in regional aluminum billet costs, import substitution space, trade flow adjustments and price differentiation trends under the low-carbon transition.

SMM June 26 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE tin rose 0.91%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.17%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc fell 0.12%, and SHFE aluminum fell 0.17%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.78%, and the most-traded cast aluminum continuous contract fell 0.44%. Overnight, most ferrous metals fell. Iron ore fell 1.08%, rebar fell 0.61%, HRC fell 0.48%, and stainless steel rose 1.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1%. Overnight LME base metals posted near across-the-board gains. LME copper rose 2.22%. LME aluminum rose 2.26%. LME lead edged lower. LME zinc rose 0.88%. LME tin rose 1.31%. LME nickel rose 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.82%, and COMEX silver fell 0.34%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose 1.17%, and SHFE silver rose 1.24%. As of 7:09 a.m. on June 26, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: [Two departments: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New-Type Energy System." The main objectives are: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030. Raise overall energy production capacity to 5.8 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent, comprehensively enhance the complementary and mutual support capabilities and security resilience of the power system, and achieve diversified and controllable energy imports; coal and oil consumption will peak, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%, wind and solar installed capacity will exceed 50%, becoming the mainstay of installed power capacity, and non-fossil energy power generation will account for 50% of the total, becoming the dominant source of electricity; accelerate building a resilient, green, low-carbon, integrated, smart and efficient new-type energy infrastructure system and initially complete a new-type power system; achieve overall independent controllability of key technological equipment across the energy industry chain, and rank among the world's leading countries in energy technology innovation; accelerate the improvement of market and pricing mechanisms suited to the new-type energy system, and basically establish a unified national electricity market system. US dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.11% to 101.46. As US data sent mixed signals and oil prices fell below pre-war levels, the decline in energy costs is expected to cool future inflation, and the dollar declined. (Jinshi Data APP) Driven by the Middle East conflict which pushed up energy prices, US inflation edged higher in May, with the annual PCE rate breaking above 4% for the first time in three years, potentially bringing the Fed closer to raising interest rates this year. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the US PCE price index rose 4.1% YoY in May, the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023. The US-led war against Iran pushed up oil prices, which in turn drove gasoline prices higher. Although crude oil and gasoline prices have pulled back in recent weeks after a fragile ceasefire was reached, economists expect inflation to remain elevated for some time. And even before the latest conflict, consumers were already grappling with higher prices triggered by Trump's sweeping import tariffs. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range last week, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers are expected to raise rates this year amid heightened inflation concerns. Financial markets are betting on a rate increase as early as September, potentially followed by another hike. According to CME's FedWatch tool: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 31%. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady by September is 36.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike 48.8%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 14.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the final estimate for Q1 GDP showed an annualized growth rate of 2.1%, revised up by 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate and far above economists' expectations. This final reading markedly outperformed the earlier second estimate of 1.6% and was also above the initial 2.0% pace published by the department. Markets had expected the final figure to be basically flat compared to the second estimate. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a sharp acceleration in business investment—likely fueled by an AI investment boom—was the key driver of the upward revision, with expanding exports and shrinking imports also providing a favorable backdrop. Yet the headline numbers also masked concerns over domestic demand. A key gauge of the economy's internal growth momentum—final sales to domestic private purchasers—was revised down by 0.7 percentage points from the second estimate to 1.7%; consumer spending also decelerated notably from Q4 2025 and from the previous estimate, underscoring pressure on household consumption. New York Fed President John Williams said the current monetary policy stance is effective in suppressing inflation, but numerous risks remain and rates are expected to stay unchanged in the near term. Williams said on Thursday that inflation is "undeniably high," and the current rate stance is "well positioned" to guide inflation back toward the 2% long-run target. He expects inflation to ease to 3.5% by the end of this year, then continue to decline along a "glide path" and reach the 2% target in 2028. (Wall Street CN) On the macro front: Today will see the release of the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June and the final one-year inflation expectations for June, among others. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers a speech; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari delivers a speech. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures gained, with WTI rising 1.61% and Brent rising 1.65%. Oil prices, which had rapidly pulled back following the Iran ceasefire, came under renewed pressure from fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz. As noted by Wall Street CN, reports said Iran proposed charging a transit fee for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and US Secretary of State Rubio promptly responded that such a move would "set an unacceptable precedent." Notably, inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, have fallen to about 19 million barrels, below the level considered the operational minimum. Nevertheless, prices remain far below pre-Iran-war levels, and near-dated futures contracts are still in bearish contango. (Wall Street CN) According to Xinhua News Agency, the United Nations maritime regulator, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), announced on Thursday that a ship was attacked in the Gulf of Oman the same day, and the organization decided to suspend evacuation operations for vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to further verify whether related security measures remain effective. Market sources said: crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; over the three days ending Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude. (Jinshi Data APP)

[US-Iran Talks Ease, Pressuring LME Aluminum; SHFE Aluminum Destocking Support Limits Decline] In the absence of new macro bullish catalysts, SHFE aluminum tracked LME aluminum under pressure, but the decline was relatively contained by destocking in China. Going forward, close attention should be paid to: the progress of physical production resumptions at Middle Eastern aluminum enterprises after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens for navigation; the trajectory of the US dollar after hawkish signals from the US Fed materialize and its transmission to commodities; and whether destocking in China continues to accelerate. Aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

SMM June 22: Metals markets: On Friday night, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18, we see: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. On Friday night, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. On Friday night in the overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. On Friday night in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 1.55%; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 4.51%. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold posted a weekly gain, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver posted a weekly gain, up 5.25% for the week. As it no longer expects the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a note: "We revised down our December gold price target to $4,900/oz (previous target $5,400), implying gold is still expected to rise in H2, though by less than previously expected. Our view on gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downgrade was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back the first US rate cut to June and December next year, from prior expectations of December 2026 and March 2027, and also by a lower forecast for gold ETF inflows. Additionally, they added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh. (Jinshi) As of 7:47 a.m. June 20, closing prices from Friday night: Macro front China side: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidance on the development and application of safe AI in the banking and insurance sectors. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support cities in improving the reserve pools of IPO-ready enterprises and M&A and restructuring projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages and other institutions to thoroughly deliver full-cycle counseling services for pre-IPO enterprises, optimize approval processes for land use rights, property, stock transfers involved in M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Weifang: Expand the implementation of 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on expanding the implementation of Weifang's 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities. According to the province-wide unified categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuums (including floor scrubbers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting discounts at all stages. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery place of the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang. (Published by Weifang) [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launch of Market Orders and Order Quantities for Related Trading Instructions] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the evening of July 3, 2026). Market orders are applicable to all listed futures and options products. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots for futures products and 100 lots for options products. For market orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 60 lots for futures products and 30 lots for options products. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots. Dollar aspects: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, hitting a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index rose for the week, up 0.97% for the week. Market pricing showed that bets on Fed rate hikes increased, with a 25-basis-point rate hike in September fully priced in. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were buying large amounts of options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sends a hawkish signal this week and reinforces US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds started buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which would increase in value if the dollar appreciates. That demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the new Fed Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation remarks. Bank of America’s head of Americas FX options, Tobias Jungmann, said: “We’re seeing massive dollar call buying, concentrated mainly in G-10 currencies. Given how low implied volatility is currently, building long dollar positions via options looks very attractive.” James Swindell, senior FX options trader at Barclays in London, said: “We’re seeing broad-based, notable demand for dollar calls, especially in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 39.6%. By the September meeting, the probability of unchanged rates is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. The ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years, responding to the surge in energy prices since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. However, oil and natural gas prices subsequently tumbled after Iran and the US announced a peace deal. Lane said the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate-hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. “We think food prices will rise, and prices of goods and services will rise too. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified,” he said. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see rising services inflation, we could consider another 25bp rate hike as insurance. If the data are ambiguous, I see no need to rush into action. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rates on hold in a 7-2 vote, says it will watch Middle East situation closely] The BoE kept the interest rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike, worried about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—April’s sole dissenter—in voting to lift rates to 4% immediately, arguing that the price outlook remains uncertain despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China’s one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada’s May CPI month-on-month rate, the eurozone’s June flash consumer confidence index, France’s June flash manufacturing PMI, Germany’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash services PMI, the UK’s June CBI industrial orders balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6, the US June S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, the US June S&P Global flash services PMI, the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia’s May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany’s June IFO business climate index, Switzerland’s June ZEW investor sentiment index, the US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the US May personal spending month-on-month rate, the final Q1 US real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, the US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, the US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, and the US June one-year inflation expectations final rate. Additionally, this week, attention should also be paid to: European Central Bank President Lagarde Christine speaks at the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Tiff delivers remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releases the results of its annual bank stress test; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature today; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams John speaks; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Austan speaks; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Neel speaks. Crude Oil: Both crude oil futures rose in overnight trading last Friday: WTI rose 0.91%, Brent rose 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for two consecutive weeks, down 9.83% for the week; Brent fell for two straight weeks, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, then struggled to rebound and turned lower several times during the session, hitting a low for the day after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As news emerged that both sides continued to attack each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent struggled around the $80 level throughout the day. (Wall Street View) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated: Negotiations on a permanent deal with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts blockades, the US grants waivers for Iranian oil, and Iran's frozen assets are released. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping out a large volume of oil that was previously unable to be exported due to the US blockade, which could be welcome news for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers sailed from Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman this week, carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil. Previously, the US military had blocked these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at limiting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data showed that for the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, due to the contract rollover, the floor trading of NYMEX New York crude oil July futures will close at 2:30 on June 23, and electronic trading will close at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.

Staff Writer | June 15, 2026 | 8:19 am Amid gold’s recent weakness, UBS Group has slashed its near-term outlook on the yellow metal, though the bank still sees prices reaching higher over the longer horizon. In a note published last week, the Swiss bank said it sees prices to drop by another $300-$900/oz., citing what it calls a “double whammy” of stronger US economic data and a delayed Federal Reserve easing. “Gold has faced renewed pressure as resilient labor market data and higher real yields prompted markets to shift expectations toward a possible rate hike this year,” UBS strategists Dominic Schnider, Giovanni Staunovo and Wayne Gordon wrote. The momentum indicators now suggest that prices “may continue to gravitate toward the $3,850-4,000/oz. range in the near term,” they added. The revision, according to the UBS analysts, follows gold’s “muted response to the escalation between the US and Iran has encouraged some profit-taking,” which they believe left prices “more exposed to traditional macro drivers like real yields and the dollar.” It follows the bank’s downward revision in May, when it trimmed its year-end target from $5,900 to $5,500/oz. Since then, gold prices have declined further after the latest round of US data releases, which included a stronger-than-expected jobs report. That print reinforced market expectations of a Fed rate hike, which could begin as early as December. Bullion tends to thrive during periods of low interest, and the threat of rate hikes in the wake of the US-Iran war has created downward pressure on the metal. After surging to a record high of nearly $5,600/oz. in January, gold has now erased almost all of its gains this year. Long-term bullish Still, banks including UBS see gold rebounding in the coming months, with prices supported by strong central bank demand for the metal as well as the deteriorating US fiscal situation. A potential end to the Middle East conflict is also seen as a tailwind. On Monday, gold rose by 3.3% following reports of a US-Iran deal. In its note, UBS said it remains “constructive on gold over the next 12 months,” with its base case still assuming the Fed cuts rates by up to 50 basis points in 2027 alongside below-trend US growth. Source： https://www.mining.com/ubs-sees-gold-price-falling-further-but-remains-long-term-bullish/

[Destocking Logic Continues to Materialize, Macro Pressure Caps Aluminum Price Upside] SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end‑June/early July, providing some support for aluminum prices. However, China’s high inventory pressure remains relatively evident, and with the current bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, domestic aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate in consolidation in the short term.