[SMM Analysis] Steel Billet Sees Notable YoY Growth, UAE's Decline Hits a New Low By product: Steel billet continued to achieve high growth, while HRC remained the product with the largest decline. In January-May 2026, China's cumulative steel billet exports reached 6.76 million mt (compared with 4.72 million mt in the same period last year), a substantial increase of 2.04 million mt, with growth momentum still strong. This was mainly due to periodic supply-demand mismatch in overseas supply chains and the subsequent impact of global buyers' active inquiries to China, especially the marginal support from purchasing sentiment in markets like Southeast Asia. In contrast, HRC exports plummeted from 10.51 million mt in the same period last year to 7.21 million mt, a decrease of 3.3 million mt, closely related to the implementation of anti-dumping policies on HRC outside China and the high base effect. Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs By country: Singapore replaced Djibouti as the top contributor to growth. Its product breakdown pie chart clearly shows that bars (61%) and wire rod (12%) formed the dominant products, together accounting for 73%. As a global shipping and trade settlement hub, Singapore's significant growth was mainly due to concentrated procurement and trade settlement by ASEAN and China-invested construction projects there, providing strong support for China's exports of bars, wire rod, and related infrastructure supporting products. On the decline list, the UAE (down 1.18 million mt), Brazil (down 850,000 mt), Vietnam (down 780,000 mt), and Saudi Arabia (down 570,000 mt) were the main losers, mainly affected by geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and the direct impact of trade barrier policies in some regions. Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Outlook According to SMM's latest data on steel export orders, the US-Iran conflict remains volatile in the short term, and amid uncertainty, Middle Eastern buyers will be relatively cautious in procurement. China's export price advantage over other markets continues to narrow, and the overall export order volume is unlikely to improve significantly. However, considering the noticeable decline in sheets & plates transactions last week, some recovery is expected in the short term. Data Source: SMM Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

Focused on H1-2026 customs data — a cliff in sulfur imports with a reshuffled source mix; acid exports collapsing under the export ban. Three charts decode the shifts in volume, source and momentum.

[Plate/HRC]HRC export down USD 2-3 d/d to 486-491; mills hold offers, trade muted HRC and other flat-product export prices fell USD 2-3/tonne day on day, with HRC export deals in the 486-491 USD/tonne range. Some mills kept relatively high offers, but overseas inquiries and actual deals were mediocre and the market stayed largely wait-and-see. [Billet]Export billet FOB weak-stable at 458-460 ex-Jiangyin; fierce competition, some deals below 455 Export billet FOB was weak-stable, quoted at 458-460 USD/tonne ex-Jiangyin. Competition was fierce, with export billet orders aggressively bid down and final deal prices pressed lower — some traders concluded FOB below 455 USD/tonne, and several East-China mills stopped taking orders at such low levels; overall trade was mediocre. [Rebar]Rebar export down USD 1 to 479-484 ex-Tianjin; buyers press, trade weak Tianjin rebar export prices edged down USD 1/tonne day on day to 479-484 USD/tonne. Downstream sentiment was wait-and-see with buyers pressing on price and sellers reluctant to sell low; deal intent was subdued and volumes stayed weak. [Turkey]Turkey HRC domestic breaks below 600, export eases to 580 FOB as EU route stalls Turkish HRC domestic prices slid faster this week, with mainstream ex-works breaking below USD 600 — down 10 to 590 USD/tonne EXW — while export offers eased 5 to 580 USD/tonne FOB. With the EU route blocked, cargoes flowed back into the domestic market, intensifying competition; mainstream mills have booked September orders and some can offer late-August spot. Quarter-to-date EU clearance topped 370kt, far above the 160kt quarterly quota; a recent deal to Greece (October shipment) was concluded at 580-585 USD/tonne FOB. [EU]EU safeguard tightens: over-quota tariff to 50%, in-transit cargoes diverted Since the EU's new steel safeguard took effect on 1 July — sharply cutting the tariff-free quota and lifting the over-quota tariff to 50% — with the implementing rules published only on 30 June, numerous in-transit orders have been forced to divert: part of the Indonesian and Thai HRC cargoes were re-routed to North Africa (the rest cancelled or renegotiated), while Brazilian CRC cargoes were diverted to the UK. The higher quota wall is reshaping import flows into the EU. [Southeast Asia]SE-Asia HRC import eases to 523 CFR; Indonesia steady, Vietnam standoff Southeast Asia HRC import offers eased to 523 USD/tonne CFR this week. Indonesia's offers to Vietnam held steady at 520-525 USD/tonne CFR, but Vietnamese buyers' target prices were low, leaving a wide bid-offer gap and a standoff. On the export side, a mainstream Vietnamese mill last week shipped HRC to Korea at 545-550 USD/tonne CFR. [India]India HRC CFR-Europe down 10 to 640; mills rush EU quota, FOB 560-570 India's HRC CFR-Europe assessment fell 10 to 640 USD/tonne this week, with FOB at 560-570 USD/tonne. Nominal CFR was quoted 650-660, but bulk deals were discounted to 635-640 (small lots above 650). EU customers booked about 100kt over the past two weeks, prompting mills to rush shipments; under 50kt of the EU's 149,319-tonne HRC quota remains uncleared, with dispatch concentrated in July-August; Middle East trade was disrupted by shipping and port congestion.

[India] This week, the assessed CFR Europe price for Indian HRC fell 10 USD/tonne to 640 USD/tonne (FOB indications at 560–570 USD/tonne). Although nominal CFR offers remained at 650–660 USD/tonne, actual transaction prices for large orders have been pushed down to 635–640 USD/tonne (small orders quoted at 650 USD/tonne and above). Over the past two weeks, EU clients have ordered a total of around 100,000 tonnes, prompting Indian steel mills to rush shipments; currently, of the EU's total HRC quota of 149,319 tonnes for India, less than 50,000 tonnes remains uncleared, with shipments concentrated in July-August to ensure arrivals at ports from end-August to early September. Additionally, trade with the Middle East has been disrupted by shipping and port congestion, and the detailed rules for sharing quotas under the EU free trade agreement remain uncertain.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in June 2026, China imported 210,900 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap, up 10.43% MoM and up 15.11% YoY. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports reached 1.2415 million mt in physical content, up 8.39% YoY.

SMM, July 20: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract 2609 closed at 23,010 yuan/mt, down 270 yuan/mt, a decline of 1.16%. Trading volume reached 182,000 lots, up 122,000 lots WoW, surging significantly as capital fled the market, with bears actively adding positions to drive prices down. Open interest came in at 261,400 lots, up 13,708 lots WoW, also rising notably as both bulls and bears entered the fray, though bearish positioning showed greater strength. The VR reading remained above 100, pointing to a high-volume sell-off this cycle, a concentrated release of bearish momentum, and ample downward energy. The medium-term bearish trend remains unchanged, the short-term bounce has ended, and the market has shifted into a pullback after breaking below short-term moving averages on heavy volume. SMM Commentary: Macro front, the US-Iran conflict continued to escalate. On July 17, US forces carried out further airstrikes on Iran, while Iran launched large-scale strikes on US military targets in Kuwait and Syria, and attacked US-related facilities in Bahrain. Middle East tensions lingered, and rate-hike worries persisted. On the supply side, recovery continued, but the destocking pattern is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Future focus should remain on the progress of production resumptions and the trajectory of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, as well as China's downstream processing orders and aluminum semis export data. Today, the most-traded alumina contract 2609 settled at 2,710 yuan/mt, down 9 yuan/mt, a loss of 0.33%. Trading volume shrank sharply to 170,000 lots, down 109,000 lots WoW. Compared with the volume expansion during the previous candlestick rebound, the current contraction in momentum raises questions about the sustainability of any recovery. Open interest fell to 331,000 lots, down 29,960 WoW, declining for a consecutive session as both bears and bulls exited their positions, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment with no trend-driven capital entering the market. The short-term 5- and 10-day moving averages flattened and converged, with the closing price pressing against the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term balance of power between longs and shorts. The medium-to-long-term 40- and 60-day moving averages continued to trend downward, suggesting the broader medium-term picture remains capped by bearish pressure. The VR reading remained below 100, pointing to weak trading sentiment, insufficient buying momentum from bulls, and a lack of proactive capital pushing prices higher. SMM Commentary: Total alumina inventory nationwide edged up MoM, with overall fluctuations remaining limited. Structurally, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters decreased, mainly because some smelters proactively slowed their procurement pace for high-priced ore, as spot alumina prices remained at a relatively high level, resulting in a reduction of in-factory inventory. Alumina refinery inventory saw a small increase, though this growth was largely offset by maintenance-related production cuts at some Shanxi enterprises and the release of new capacity in south China. Port-side inventory rose, influenced by the gradual arrival of new vessels. Warrant inventory continued to decline, as narrowing spreads between futures and spot prices combined with invoicing issues dampened the incentive to ship to delivery warehouses. In-transit and terminal inventories accumulated, mainly due to previously expired warrants being released as spot cargoes, combined with continued shipments from Guangxi, which increased the flow of goods through circulation channels. The market's operating structure for alumina is expected to remain largely stable in the short term. Some enterprises reliant on domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to tightening ore supply, but this will have a limited impact on monthly production, with inventory levels most likely holding at their current state. On the pricing front, as regional spot mismatch issues gradually ease, the spot price center may pull back slightly, and the subsequent trend will likely come under pressure. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients shall have no bearing on Shanghai Metals Market.]