[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesian Nickel Ore Quota News Hits Futures, Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices Pull Back in Tandem According to an SMM report on Aug 6, SS futures trended downward and hit bottom. The SHFE nickel and SS futures dropped together, impacted by news of additional nickel ore quotas under Indonesia's RKAB. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,380 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the SS futures' successive declines intensified the wait-and-see sentiment in the industry. Although traders generally lowered their quotes in line with futures, inquiries remained sluggish, and transactions weakened further. SS most-traded futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 was reported at 14,465 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B material in the Wuxi area were in the 405-855 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held stable. For cold-rolled unedged 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell 75 yuan/mt, while that in Foshan fell 50 yuan/mt. Cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat. Quotes for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi were unchanged. Cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were steady. This week, macro sentiment shifted bearish, dominating metal market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note overall. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its meeting this week, but its overall stance was hawkish. Commodity valuations generally came under pressure, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened collectively. Dragged by the spillover effect of macro headwinds, SS futures followed suit and consolidated on a subdued note, with the center of the futures moving lower. The overall market...

[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare Earth Prices Generally Weak, Downstream Wait-and-See Keeps Transactions Sluggish] Overall, affected by downstream magnetic material enterprises' wait-and-see approach to inquiries, market trading activity remains persistently sluggish, rare earth prices are generally in the doldrums, and actual transactions are still weak. In the short term, influenced by the stalemate in the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream, Pr-Nd product prices may continue to move sideways.

[Pr-Nd oxide continued to weaken, large factories’ evening purchases boosted confidence, medium-heavy rare earth followed the decline.] Yesterday, affected by wild swings in futures prices, most market participants had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Factories were reluctant to sell and purchase, and some traders continued to sell small quantities at low prices. However, large factories’ purchases in the evening boosted some market confidence, and low-priced supply tightened again. In the medium-heavy rare earth market, prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide also edged down with the market, but most factories kept their offers firm, and the decline was relatively small.

[Pr-Nd Oxide Continues to Decline, Dragging Metals Down, Magnetic Material Scrap Waits and Sees, Medium-Heavy Rare Earths Stable] Yesterday, some traders continued to sell at low prices, but metal plants' purchase willingness remained poor. Pr-Nd oxide prices further dropped, market confidence was unstable, and downstream inquiries and trading continued to be sluggish. For medium-heavy rare earths, downstream purchasing enthusiasm for dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide markets remained relatively low, plant quotations remained firm, and prices fluctuated relatively little for the time being.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was around 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was near 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt. The most-traded futures contract was disturbed by supply-side production cut news and PV anti-involution bullish sentiment, causing the most-traded silicon metal futures contract to trend stronger. Silicon enterprises' quotes were generally stable, with a strong willingness to sell. Watch for the impact of variables on short-term price spikes, with resistance above focused on silicon enterprises' willingness to sell. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 31.6-33.5 yuan/kg. Currently, most manufacturers continue to hold back from selling, market transactions are very few, but expectations for price hikes are relatively common. Some forward traders received higher quotes, with some prices even exceeding 40 yuan. However, this is limited to forward traders. Spot trading is currently basically at a standstill, awaiting the outcome of today's meeting.

SMM August 4 news: Today, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 23,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 23,825 yuan/mt, a low of 23,510 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 23,800 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt or 1.06% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 9,805 lots, open interest stood at 35,500 lots, with a daily position change of -4,865 lots. The price stood above MA5 (23,620), MA10 (23,422), MA20 (23,271.50), MA40 (23,352.63), and MA60 (23,745.50), indicating strengthening short-term repair momentum. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (55.87) was above the DEA (-46.64), with the histogram recording 205.02, as bullish momentum continued to release. Trading volume remained low, and the daily position change of -4,865 lots showed continued capital outflow. Today’s rise was more of a short-covering rally, and the sustainability of the upward momentum still needs to be observed. SMM Comment: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centered on fund repatriation and strait security, and the nuclear issue is about to initiate consultations. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow. Disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation in the strait. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell both in China and overseas. In the short term, bearish factors are dominant, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 2,655 yuan/mt, a low of 2,623 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,641 yuan/mt, up 7 yuan/mt or 0.27% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 124,000 lots, open interest was 215,600 lots, with a daily position change of -11,536 lots. Prices remained below MA5 (2,645.20), MA10 (2,673.90), MA20 (2,687.55), MA40 (2,761.45), and MA60 (2,770.80). The moving average system maintained a bearish alignment, with the weak pattern yet to reverse. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-35.48) was below the DEA (-32.66), with the histogram recording -5.62, indicating residual bearish momentum. Trading volume pulled back, and the daily position change of -11,536 lots showed significant capital outflow. Today’s rebound was more a reflection of short-covering at low levels. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. By inventory segment, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued mild destocking, but due to sharp price fluctuations and market divergence over the outlook, restocking willingness was weak, with terminal users mainly taking a wait-and-see attitude. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly due to phased maintenance at some plants in the north. Under production constraints, in-factory inventory was consumed first. After the maintenance ends next week, this impact is expected to gradually fade. Port inventory continued to build, as overseas port arrivals stayed high, with imported resources supplementing spot supply and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, the inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to slight buildup, with supply and demand staying loose, and alumina prices continuing to consolidate on a weak note. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]