SMM, Aug 5: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals rose almost across the board. SHFE copper rose 0.79%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%. SHFE lead rose 2.61%. SHFE zinc rose 1.38%. SHFE tin rose 0.5%. SHFE nickel fell 0.78%. In addition, foundry aluminum most-traded futures were flat at 23,365 yuan/mt, alumina most-traded contract rose 0.99%, lithium carbonate most-traded contract rose 1.45%, silicon metal most-traded contract rose 0.72%, and polysilicon most-traded futures rose 1.83%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.93%, rebar rose 0.34%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.5%. Stainless steel fell 2.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 3.27%, and coke most-traded contract rose 2.13%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:45, LME metals broadly rose. LME copper was flat at $14,043/mt, LME aluminum rose 0.22%, LME lead rose 0.71%, LME zinc rose 0.59%, LME tin rose 0.13%, and LME nickel fell 0.2%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.8% and COMEX silver rose 1.33%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.92%, and SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 5.35%. In addition, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded futures rose 7.04%, and palladium most-traded futures rose 6.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping freight index futures contract fell 8.96% to 1,635 points. As of 11:45 Aug 5, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 110 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 106,990 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper averaged 106,890 yuan/mt, up 460 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories ended a two-day rising streak and declined again, mainly due to fewer arrivals... Macro Front China: [PBOC net drains 201.5 billion yuan from the open market today] The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from last. Today, 206.5 billion yuan of reverse repos mature. US Dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 99.82. Oil prices fell further, with markets betting that the tight energy supply situation will ease, potentially reducing inflationary pressures, and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME "FedWatch," the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 41.6%, while there is a 58.4% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike. For October, the probability of rates staying unchanged is 30.5%, with a 53.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 15.5% probability of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos wrote that US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s policy reaction function has shifted to a less dovish stance. His remarks this year suggest that the Fed should continue to hold rates steady. Earlier this year, Bessent cited models showing that the Fed’s policy rate could be anywhere from more than 25bp to over 100bp above the neutral rate. Today (August 4), he put forward two points. He first defended Warsh’s decision last week not to articulate any policy reaction function: "I believe every meeting should be open, and market participants should judge for themselves... I think Warsh wants to keep his options open to achieve the best outcome." Secondly, he did propose a policy reaction function that could be seen as dovish, arguing that near-term shocks should be ignored: "What exactly will be the impact of rising short-term rates? We’ll have to wait and see." He raised this question, but then responded by noting that underlying inflation is "very mild... very steady." "In core inflation, after stripping out the more volatile components influenced by energy, the rest has been very steady. I expect this to continue." (Jin10 Data APP) On the economic data front, US job openings declined somewhat in June, but hiring rebounded slightly, indicating that labour market demand remained relatively stable. eToro’s Bret Kenwell noted that this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be the next key period: "If the data is strong, especially amid still-elevated inflation, it will reinforce expectations for a September rate hike; but if the data is weak, combined with last week’s lower-than-expected GDP growth, it could provide more justification for the Fed to stay on hold." (Wall Street CN) Data: Today will see the release of France’s June industrial production m/m, final July services PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, Eurozone June PPI m/m, US July ADP employment change, final US July S&P Global services PMI, and US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI, among other data. Watch: 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on the Fed, monetary policy, and the agricultural economic outlook. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets extended the declines from the previous two trading days, continuing to fall, with WTI down 1.36% and Brent down 1.06%. Qatar stated that both the US and Iran are optimistic about an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the relevant proposal has been drafted. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the agreement could be finalized on Tuesday or Wednesday. Affected by this, crude oil futures continued their downward trend. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy supply; if reopened, it is expected to promote the normalization of global oil supply. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baqaei said on August 4 that Iran is still in negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, with "positive progress" on technical and political levels. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that an agreement could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday this week. According to a report by the US news website Axios on August 4, regional sources and US officials indicated that the US, Iran, and Oman are "close to reaching" an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the US side hopes to announce the deal on August 5. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Spot Market: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Daily Review: US-Iran Strait Standoff, Silver Prices Move Sideways] SMM Aug 5 – Easing US-Iran geopolitical tensions, along with the US dollar halting its decline, led to a slight rebound in silver prices, but strong economic data capped upside room. Spot demand remained sluggish, with transactions at parity and orders sluggish.

SMM August 5: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.68%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.08%. SHFE lead rose 1.79%, SHFE zinc rose 0.84%, and SHFE tin rose 0.63%. SHFE nickel fell 0.75%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.19%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.09%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 1.25%, iron ore was flat at 699.5 yuan/mt, rebar fell 0.07%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.01%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 1.41%. LME aluminum fell 0.29%. LME lead rose 1.23%. LME zinc rose 0.74%. LME tin rose 0.84%. LME nickel fell 0.35%. Overnight, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.07%, and COMEX silver rose 3.27%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.87%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.45%. CITIC Securities said in a research note that gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly this year, but they believe gold is still in a major bull market, citing accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, difficult-to-heal geopolitical rifts under deglobalization, and continued support from global central bank gold purchases. They therefore view the current pullback as only a temporary correction within the bull market. The current drawdown has approached historical extremes, and the $4,000/oz area is likely the bottom zone of this round. Looking ahead, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to shift from a drag to a boost for gold prices, the Fed’s monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and the surge in US military spending is pushing up the deficit; gold prices are expected to return to an upward trajectory within the year. (Jin10 Data App) As of 7:11 on August 5, closing prices for overnight trading were: Macro front China: [MIIT: Strengthen the screening and testing/verification of risks and hidden dangers in "aggressive" innovative designs of road motor vehicle products, and strengthen the safety evaluation of combined driver assistance and autonomous driving functions] On August 4, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) organized a discussion with road motor vehicle inspection and testing institutions to analyze the current product safety and inspection work situation and to arrange efforts to regulate the competitive order and improve the quality of inspection and testing in the road motor vehicle sector. The meeting called for inspection and testing institutions to thoroughly implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, firmly resist irrational competition, and strictly control product testing. First, conduct in-depth self-checks to systematically identify problems in the inspection and testing of road motor vehicle products and earnestly carry out rectifications. Second, strengthen industry self-discipline, focus on main responsibilities, reinforce responsibility, enhance integrity and self-discipline, and jointly safeguard the credibility of the entire industry. Third, hold the bottom line of product safety by implementing quality control measures for sample vehicle management, personnel management, and process management, strengthen the screening and testing/verification of risks and hidden dangers in "aggressive" innovative designs, and enhance the safety evaluation of combined driver assistance and autonomous driving functions. Fourth, improve capabilities by actively participating in the formulation and revision of standards and regulations, accelerate the establishment of a testing and evaluation system for intelligent connected vehicles, strengthen the capacity for road motor vehicle inspection and testing, and provide objective, fair information and professional opinions to the industry. Going forward, the MIIT will work with relevant departments to in-depth carry out actions on production consistency and quality improvement for road motor vehicle products, intensify work inspections, urge and guide inspection and testing institutions to fulfill their role as "gatekeepers" of product safety, improve the quality of inspection and testing work, impose joint penalties on institutions with problems, and resolutely hold the bottom line of product safety. (From the Wallstreetcn App) [PBOC: Net injection of 50 billion yuan via open market government bond transactions in July] The PBOC released its liquidity injection data for various tools in July 2026. In terms of central bank lending, the standing lending facility (SLF) recorded a net withdrawal of 1 billion yuan; the medium-term lending facility (MLF) recorded a net injection of 100 billion yuan; and the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) recorded a net withdrawal of 116.1 billion yuan. In terms of open market operations, 7-day reverse repos recorded a net injection of 249.5 billion yuan, open market government bond transactions recorded a net injection of 50 billion yuan, and central treasury cash management recorded a net injection of 30 billion yuan. Dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.11% to 99.86. According to CME "Fed Watch," the probability that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in September was 41.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 58.4%. The probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged through October was 30.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike was 53.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike was 15.5%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent, in an interview with CNBC, said Fed Chairman Warsh wants to preserve flexibility to achieve the best outcome. When discussing the strategy of the Fed and Warsh, he called it a "detox" for the Fed. He said every meeting should be live (full of possibilities) and participants should exercise their own judgment. He believed the Fed will balance its growth and inflation objectives, and he trusted that Warsh will help the Fed strike a balance between the two. On the economy and inflation, he noted that after stripping out sectors affected by energy prices, core inflation performance has been very steady, and underlying inflation data has been very mild, a trend he expects to continue. He also noted that core inflation is slowing. "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos wrote that US Treasury Secretary Bessent's policy reaction function has shifted to become less dovish. His comments this year suggested that the Fed should continue to hold rates steady. Earlier this year, Bessent cited models indicating the Fed's policy rate could be as little as more than 25 bp or as much as more than 100 bp above the neutral rate. Today (August 4), he made two points. First, he defended Warsh's decision last week not to articulate any policy reaction function: "I think every meeting should be open, and market participants should make their own judgments... I think Warsh wants to keep his options open to achieve the best results." Second, he did lay out what could be seen as a dovish reaction function, advocating that near-term shocks should be ignored: "What exactly will the rise in short-term interest rates bring? We will wait and see." He raised that question but then responded by pointing out that underlying inflation is "very mild... very steady." "Within core inflation, after stripping out the volatile components significantly influenced by energy, the rest has been very steady. I think that will continue." (Jin10 Data App) Macro front: Data to be released today include China's July RatingDog Services PMI, France's June industrial output m/m, the final France July Services PMI, the final Germany July Services PMI, the final Eurozone July Services PMI, the final UK July Services PMI, the Eurozone June PPI m/m, the US July ADP employment change, the final US July S&P Global Services PMI, and the US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Also on the radar: a speech by Kansas City Fed President Schmid, a 2028 FOMC voter, on the Fed, monetary policy, and the agricultural economic outlook. Crude oil front: Overnight, both crude oil futures extended their declines from the previous trading day, with WTI falling 6.47% and Brent dropping 6.08%. Wallstreetcn noted that on Tuesday, August 4 (US Eastern Time), Reuters, citing informed sources, reported that Iran has abandoned its earlier demand for full control over two-way shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and instead proposed that Iran manage all vessel navigation entering the Strait while retaining supervisory rights and the right to intervene when necessary over vessels departing the Strait. Xinhua News Agency, citing US media, reported that US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Tuesday that an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz could be reached on August 4 or 5. Also according to Xinhua, US Secretary of State Rubio said on the same day that negotiations with Iran on reopening the Strait had "made progress" but a deal had not yet been finalized. The sharp drop in oil prices meant cooling inflation expectations for the market. Tony Miano of Wells Fargo Investment Institute noted: "The market is reacting to the prospect that a reopening of Hormuz could help normalize global oil supplies and ease recent energy price pressures, and lower oil prices could ease inflation concerns." However, he cautioned that inflation is unlikely to normalize overnight, and even after energy pressures ease, overall prices could remain sticky in the near term. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM August 4 news: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals almost all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.91%, SHFE aluminum rose 1%. SHFE lead rose 0.23%. SHFE zinc fell 0.58%. SHFE tin rose 0.81%. SHFE nickel rose 1.55%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.58%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.38%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.07%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.36%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.4%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was flat at 702.5 yuan/mt, rebar edged up, while hot-rolled coil edged down. Stainless steel rose 2.06%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.91%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.85%. Overseas base metals market, as of 11:41, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.77%, LME aluminum rose 0.56%, LME lead rose 0.80%, LME zinc rose 0.61%. LME tin rose 0.77%. LME nickel rose 0.81%. Precious metals: as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.54%, COMEX silver rose 1.87%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.35%, the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 1.64%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures edged up, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.54%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European freight futures contract rose 3.19% to 1,843 points. As of 11:41, August 4, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: In Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot were mainly traded at 24,760-24,950 yuan/mt, Zijin was traded at 24,880-25,010 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot were mainly traded at around 24,760-24,870 yuan/mt. Zijin was quoted at a premium of around 0-30 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, Huxin was quoted at 26,220 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of around 30-120 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, and Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of around 110 yuan/mt against Shanghai market. Macro front Domestic: [State Administration for Market Regulation: 20 places including Beijing, Shanghai, etc., designated as national trade secret protection innovation pilot sites] The General Office of the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on promoting typical experiences and practices of national trade secret protection innovation pilot sites. Among them, Beijing Haidian District, Beijing Tongzhou District, Tianjin Binhai High-tech Zone, Shanghai Pudong New Area, Shanghai Fengxian District, Jiangsu Nanjing, Jiangsu Wuxi, Jiangsu Suzhou, Zhejiang Hangzhou, Zhejiang Ningbo, Zhejiang Wenzhou, Anhui Hefei, Fujian Xiamen Haicang District, Hubei Wuhan, Hunan Changsha, Guangdong Guangzhou, Guangdong Shenzhen, Guangdong Foshan, Chongqing Jiangjin District, Sichuan Chengdu Wuhou District were identified as the first batch of national trade secret protection innovation pilot sites. ()Market Regulation Administration [PBOC Net Withdraws 559 Billion Yuan from Open Market Today] PBOC conducted 46.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operations, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous session. Today, 605.5 billion yuan reverse repos matured. [Shenzhen New Home Sales Up Over 30% YoY in July] According to data from Shenzhen's real estate information platform, the city's new commercial housing sales totaled 3,773 units in July, down 35.2% MoM but up 19.3% YoY; among these, residential sales were 2,664 units, down 6.8% MoM but up 32.5% YoY. Looking at a longer period, new home sales from January to July totaled 35,104 units, a slight 0.7% YoY increase; of these, residential sales totaled 21,935 units, down 10.6% YoY, with the decline narrowing compared with H1. (JIN10 APP) On the US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 100.01. The July US manufacturing PMI data showed strong demand, surging output, and accelerated hiring, marking the fastest expansion in over four years, which to some extent offset the interest rate cut expectations driven by declining oil prices, leaving overall market rate hike expectations relatively unchanged. According to CME FedWatch, the market priced in a 64.5% probability of at least a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September. (Wall Street CN) (JIN10 APP) Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the US ISM manufacturing PMI registered 55.6 in July, the highest level since May 2022. A reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, and the industry has remained above that threshold for seven consecutive months. The production index rose to 58.5, the highest since the end of 2021, while the employment gauge indicated that manufacturers added workers for the first time since September 2023. New orders — a signal of demand — also rebounded. Manufacturing momentum has been strong this year, with factories benefiting from solid consumer demand, robust business investment, and government spending on national defense. All but one manufacturing industry reported growth in July, including printing, apparel, and electrical equipment. The only sector reporting contraction was chemical products. Fed’s Williams said he remains optimistic that inflationary pressures will gradually ease, but if that does not happen, the Fed will not hesitate to raise interest rates to ensure price pressures return to target. In an interview with Reuters last Friday, Williams said that if energy prices and trade tariffs have peaked and the economy maintains solid momentum, "I think some of the main factors that have pushed up inflation over the past year and a half will no longer play such a large role, and the disinflationary forces we observed earlier should reemerge."He added: "I am watching very closely what happens to core inflation measures over the coming months, whether that is consistent with inflation trending down to 2% and continuing to move lower, so that we achieve that sustained 2% inflation goal over the longer run by 2028." He also stated: "My own forecast is that inflation will come down somewhat in H2 this year and pull back further next year." Williams reiterated that the current monetary policy stance is "well positioned" to bring inflation back to the target. However, he noted: "If we are not on a path to bring inflation down to 2%... then it would be entirely appropriate to take action to get us back on a path to 2% inflation." (Jin10 Data APP) In terms of data: Today, the US June trade balance, US June JOLTS job openings, US June factory orders MoM, and other figures will be released. Items to watch: SpaceX announces Q2 2026 results; FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit takes place from August 4-6, with Samsung, SK, and other storage giants in attendance. In terms of crude oil: As of 11:41, both crude benchmarks were up, with WTI rising 0.73% and Brent gaining 1.16%. With the outlook for US-Iran negotiations uncertain and market concerns over supply disruptions persisting, oil prices rebounded after the previous session's plunge. Shipping tracking data shows that six empty Saudi-flagged supertankers changed course in the Gulf of Aden in recent days, heading toward southern Africa. One of them is destined for Gibraltar. On August 3, the six tankers were sailing in formation in the high seas off the coast of Somalia. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market at a glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: ISM 55.6 Strengthens September Rate Hike, Intensifying Tug-of-War in SHFE Tin Prices at High Levels]

SMM August 4 News: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper gained 0.43%. SHFE aluminum added 0.61%. SHFE lead fell 1.17%, SHFE zinc dropped 0.82%, and SHFE tin rose 0.44%. SHFE nickel climbed 1.13%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.08%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract edged up 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly declined. Stainless steel surged 3.09%, iron ore fell 0.71%, and rebar slipped 0.4%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.56%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.55%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.46%. Overnight on the overseas metals market, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper gained 0.33%. LME aluminum rose 1%. LME lead fell 0.72%. LME zinc dipped 0.16%. LME tin inched up 0.03%. LME nickel slipped 0.26%. Overnight in the precious metals segment : COMEX gold rose 0.09%, while COMEX silver gained 1.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.11%, while the most-traded SHFE silver contract added 0.34%. As of 7:17 a.m. on August 4, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestic side: [Li Qiang Signs State Council Decree to Promulgate Revised Regulations on the Protection of Layout-Designs of Integrated Circuits] Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council decree to promulgate the revised Regulations on the Protection of Layout-Designs of Integrated Circuits, effective October 15, 2026. The Regulations aim to protect exclusive rights to integrated circuit layout-designs, encourage technological innovation in integrated circuits, and promote scientific and technological development. The Regulations consist of six chapters and 54 articles, with the main revisions as follows. First, clarify the overall requirements. The protection of integrated circuit layout-designs shall implement the strategic deployment of the Party and the state on intellectual property rights, expand the scope of protection, and emphasize good faith. Second, improve the application and examination procedures. Regulate fraudulent applications, refine material requirements, improve rejection and revocation procedures, and add procedures for restoration of rights. Third, strengthen protection of exclusive rights. Clarify standards for defining the scope of rights and increase compensation for infringement. Fourth, promote the utilization of layout-designs. Strengthen public services, specify reward and remuneration measures, improve requirements for transfer, licensing, and pledge, and regulate the exercise of co-owners' rights. (Xinhua News Agency) [NDRC and National Energy Administration Issue the 15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Power System Construction] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Power System Construction. It proposes that by 2030, the new-type power system will be initially established: a green and low-carbon power supply pattern will have basically taken shape, with non-fossil energy accounting for 50% of power generation; power supply capability will be continuously enhanced, complementarity and mutual support among power systems will be greatly improved, and security and resilience will be significantly strengthened, keeping power supply adequacy at a reasonable level to effectively meet the electricity needs of socioeconomic development and people's aspirations for a better life; a safe, reliable, green, low-carbon, strong, resilient, intelligent, and flexible new-type power grid will be initially built, giving full play to its role as a resource allocation platform and service functions, achieving high-level consumption of over 2.8 billion kW of new energy, and establishing a charging infrastructure network capable of supporting more than 110 million EVs. The institutional mechanisms for the new-type power system will be further improved, and a unified national power market system will be basically established. The plan proposes promoting wide-load high-efficiency retrofits for existing coal-fired power units, controlling the increase in coal consumption under low-load operating conditions to within 25%. It also calls for promoting full-load denitrification retrofits for coal-fired units based on local conditions. Implement a batch of cross-generation upgrade projects for 600,000-kW-level units. In areas with suitable conditions, build a number of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and carbon capture, utilization, and storage projects. Formulate policies for the integrated development of coal power and new energy, support the priority implementation of a batch of coal power-new energy integration projects in areas where conditions permit, carry out retrofits to enhance coal power's regulating capability, and promote the coupling and integration of coal power and new energy systems to achieve integrated regulation and delivery and reduce coal-fired power generation. [SHFE Issues Notice on Launching Spread Orders] To meet market needs and improve market operation efficiency, the Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch spread orders starting from August 24, 2026 (i.e., the night continuous trading session on August 21, 2026). Initially, spread orders will be applicable to copper, gold, rebar, and natural rubber futures. Subsequent plans to extend to other products and introduce cross-product spread combinations will be notified separately by the exchange. Spread orders are supported only for futures products, with a minimum order size of 1 lot and a maximum of 500 lots. [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launching Spread Orders] To meet market needs and improve market operation efficiency, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange will launch spread orders starting from August 24, 2026 (i.e., the night continuous trading session on August 21, 2026). Initially, spread orders will be applicable to crude oil futures. Subsequent plans to extend to other products and introduce cross-product spread combinations will be notified separately by INE. Spread orders are supported only for futures products, with a minimum order size of 1 lot and a maximum of 500 lots. (Shanghai International Energy Exchange) [CISA: In the Next Stage, Strictly Implement the Steel Export License Management System] In H1 2026, steel exports saw an overall decline in volume and stable prices, while steel billet exports surged significantly. Overseas, 12 original anti-dumping investigations were initiated against Chinese steel, and trade friction pressure remained unabated. In H2, external constraints tightened: the EU's new steel safeguard measures reduced quotas and introduced the "melted and poured" origin rule, and coupled with global geopolitical disruptions, the export environment became more complex. In the next stage, strictly implement the steel export license management system, adhere to the orientation of "promoting high-end products, stabilizing peripheral markets, and strict supervision," strengthen industry self-discipline, optimize the export structure, deepen cultivation of peripheral and emerging markets, actively respond to trade frictions, proactively adapt to international rules, and drive the transformation of exports toward high-end and green development to achieve steady and orderly progress. (CISA) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.19% to 99.97. In July, the US manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in more than four years, driven by sustained strong demand, surging production, and increased hiring. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6 in July, the highest since May 2022. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and the sector has now been above that level for seven consecutive months. The Production Index climbed to 58.5, the highest since the end of 2021, while the employment gauge signaled that manufacturers added workers for the first time since September 2023. New order growth — a signal of demand — also rebounded. Manufacturing has been robust this year, with factories benefiting from solid consumer demand, firm business investment, and government spending on national defense. All but one manufacturing industry reported growth in July, including printing, apparel, and electrical equipment. The only industry reporting contraction was chemical products. According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 32.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 67.2%. For the October meeting, the probability of holding rates steady is 23.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 57.3% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 19.3%. Fed's Williams said he remains optimistic that inflation pressures will gradually ease, but if that does not happen, the Fed will not hesitate to raise rates to ensure price pressures return to target. In an interview with Reuters last Friday, Williams said that if energy prices and trade tariffs have peaked and the economy remains on a solid footing, "I think some of the main factors that had been pushing up inflation over the last year and a half or so will fade, and some of the disinflationary forces that we had observed earlier should reassert themselves." He added, "I'm watching very carefully the next few months' readings on core inflation to see if they are consistent with inflation moving toward 2% and continuing to trend lower, to give us confidence that we can achieve our 2% inflation goal durably by 2028." He also said, "My own forecast is that inflation will come down in the second half of this year and come down further next year." Williams reiterated that the current policy stance is "well positioned" to bring inflation back to target. But he noted, "If we are not on a path to bring inflation down to 2% ... then taking action to get us back to that 2% path would be entirely appropriate." (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: Data from the Bank of Japan's accounts suggest that Japan likely spent about $34 billion on Friday to intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, building on the coordinated action with the US on Thursday. Based on a comparison of BOJ account data released Monday with money broker forecasts, the estimated intervention was about 5.33 trillion yen (approximately $34 billion). Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed earlier Monday that Japan had stepped into the market on Friday. The continued yen-buying by Japanese authorities underscores their determination to counter bearish bets against the yen. The US Treasury joined the effort last week to shore up the yen, marking the closest coordination on exchange rate policy in 15 years. Analysis of the BOJ accounts does not reflect the scale of US intervention in the market, but US involvement may have reduced the amount of funds Japan needed to achieve the same exchange rate effect. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Today, data such as the US Trade Balance for June, US JOLTS Job Openings for June, and US Factory Orders MoM for June will be released. Attention should be paid to: SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings release; the FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit to be held August 4-6, with storage giants such as Samsung and SK hynix in attendance. Crude Oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures plunged, with WTI tumbling 5.44% and Brent falling 4.81%. Last Sunday, Trump said publicly that the US and Iran would start talks on Monday, adding that "after the Hormuz agreement comes the nuclear deal." Iran earlier Monday denied the claim of talks with the US. During afternoon US stock trading, Trump again said negotiations with Iran were still ongoing. He said the US is currently in dialogue with Iran at its request, a process supported by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and other countries, and stressed that this will be Iran's "last chance to sign a good deal." Signals are currently mixed, and the market has turned to a wait-and-see mode. Substantive risks in the Strait of Hormuz have yet to dissipate. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported an explosion near a tanker off the coast of Oman on Sunday. This waterway, which in peacetime carries about one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG shipments, already saw an LNG carrier attacked late last week. On the futures curve, Brent is in a pronounced backwardation structure, reflecting still-tight physical market supply. (Wall Street Insights)