According to the latest customs data, China's imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods in May 2026 reached 2,766.41 mt in physical content, up 8.19% YoY and surging 13.02% MoM. In January-May 2026, cumulative imports were 11,400 mt in physical content, a cumulative decline of 1.23% YoY (HS codes 74072111, 74072119, 74072190). From April to May, downstream users in China maintained a normal restocking pace, and with steady export order deliveries, monthly imports recovered on a MoM basis for consecutive months. However, overall end-use consumption showed no significant pickup, leaving cumulative imports still weak YoY. By source, South Korea remained China's largest supplier of brass billet, with imports from South Korea reaching 1,117.9 mt in May, up 13.85% MoM and 16.79% YoY, accounting for 40.41% of the total. Japan ranked second, with May imports at 439.88 mt, up 19.05% MoM but down 0.82% YoY, representing a 15.9% share. In May, imports from these two key source countries both rose MoM, as overseas producers' shipments and the domestic procurement pace picked up simultaneously. Japan and South Korea together supplied over 50% of the total, and the import source structure remained stable. On the import value side, growth remained divergent, and cost pressures continued to stand out. Import value in May was $26.7529 million, up 18.33% MoM and 38.04% YoY. In January-May 2026, cumulative import value reached $105.7079 million, a 23.42% YoY increase. A comparison shows that while imports in January-May fell 1.23% YoY in volume, import value surged 23.42% YoY, a sharp divergence. The key reason is that international copper raw material prices have been fluctuating at highs, pushing up the ex-factory cost of overseas brass billet, which then passed through to import prices and drove up unit transaction prices. Even though total import volumes were weak, overall import value maintained high growth. The core contradiction of "high costs, weak demand, and pessimistic expectations" in the brass billet market has not fundamentally reversed. On one hand, international copper prices have been fluctuating at highs, continuously raising production and import costs for brass billet, squeezing profits at domestic processing enterprises, and making import purchase willingness more cautious. On the other hand, end-use consumption in traditional sectors such as real estate, home appliances, and hardware has recovered slowly, downstream finished product orders have been mediocre, spot trades in the market have remained sluggish overall, and there has been insufficient drive for large-scale restocking. Based on import performance in May and downstream fundamentals, SMM expects that the brass billet import market will continue to operate at low levels for the rest of Q2 this year. Without a concentrated recovery in end-use demand, imports are unlikely to see a sustained significant rebound, and the game between high import prices and weak end-use demand will persist.

The settlement mechanism for LFP is evolving, but the “lithium + phosphoric acid” dual linkage covers only a portion of costs and carries structural flaws such as process mismatch and lagging price references. SMM believes the industry should move directly to the ultimate “lithium carbonate + iron phosphate” solution. The SMM iron phosphate price is a settlement benchmark recognized by both upstream and downstream players.

SMM June 23 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals all fell, SHFE copper fell 0.71%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%. SHFE lead fell 0.12%. SHFE zinc fell 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 3.26%. SHFE nickel fell 0.72%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 2.43%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.79%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.41%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 0.56%. Ferrous metals all fell, iron ore fell 0.94%, rebar fell 0.51%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.57%, stainless steel fell 1.42%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.93%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 4.53%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals all moved lower. LME copper fell 0.89%, LME aluminum fell 1.56%, LME lead fell 0.84%. LME zinc, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell nearly 1%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 1.07%, COMEX silver fell 3.78%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.36%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 4.91%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.85%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 2.36%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight futures contract fell 2.23% to 3,689 points. As of 11:43 on June 23, some futures market midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at 24,585-24,770 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transactions were at 24,685-24,860 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions were at 24,515-24,700 yuan/mt. Morning session market quotes against SMM average prices were at a premium of 10-20 yuan/mt, with no quotes against the contract for now... Macro front China: [Notice from the Ministry of Commerce and Nine Other Departments on Cultivating and Expanding Consumption in the Automotive Aftermarket] The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on implementing measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket, stating that the development of automotive modification should be standardized and orderly. Establish and improve automotive modification management systems. Formulate policy documents to promote the development of the automobile modification market, clarify graded and categorized management of automobile modification, determine a list of automobile modification items, and improve management requirements for vehicle inspection and change registration. Improve the standard system for automobile modification. Study the establishment of an automotive modification sub-technical committee under the National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee, sort out a list of standards to be proposed or revised, accelerate the formulation of a batch of national standards, and research and develop automotive modification parts and modification technical specifications. The notice proposes supporting the development of the RV and camping industry. Improving the environment for RV travel and use. Support local governments in optimizing management policies for RV road travel. Simplify the land approval process for RV campsites. Enhance the supporting service level of RV campsites. Leveraging regional cultural and tourism resources, encourage the construction of a number of high-standard, multi-functional RV campsites in areas along scenic routes and in suburban areas, and improve supporting services such as maintenance and replenishment, water and electricity supply, medical rescue, and dining and accommodation. Optimize the setup of RV campsite signage, and release premium RV travel routes. When constructing or renovating public parking lots in cities, where conditions permit, dedicated parking spaces for motorhomes and towable caravans may be set up and management strengthened to better meet the parking demand for RVs. [Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments: Announce 40 pilot cities for automotive distribution and consumption reform] On June 23, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued a notice, announcing 40 pilot cities for automotive distribution and consumption reform and their key reform and innovation directions. For example, Tianjin focuses on automobile modification, classic cars, and auto racing, Shenyang in Liaoning focuses on used car circulation, Yangzhou in Jiangsu focuses on RV camping, Weinan in Shaanxi focuses on retired vehicle recycling, and so on. The notice requires each pilot city to, based on local industrial characteristics, market features, resource endowments, location conditions, functional positioning, and other actual situations, address bottleneck issues such as unreasonable restrictions on automotive distribution and consumption, improve reform and innovation measures, cultivate new scenarios, new formats, and new models of automotive consumption, and drive the integrated development of commerce, tourism, culture, sports, and healthcare. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments synchronously issued a notice on several measures to cultivate and strengthen the automotive aftermarket consumption. (Xinhua News Agency) [Draft Financial Law submitted to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for first review] On June 23, 2026, the Financial Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft) was submitted to the 23rd meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress for first review. The Financial Law is a fundamental, comprehensive, and overarching law that governs the financial sector in China. It is positioned as the "1" in the financial legal system, playing a guiding, overarching, and standardizing role. Laws in areas such as banking, insurance, and securities constitute the "N," and other financial laws and regulations form the "X." These must align with the basic provisions established by the "1," with equal emphasis on formulation and revision, to specifically regulate financial activities in each field. Together, "1+N+X" build a scientific, complete, and unified financial legal system. The draft Financial Law adheres to the main theme of strengthening regulation, preventing risks, and promoting high-quality development, focusing on coordinating development and security, and striving to solve legal difficulties that hinder the high-quality development of finance. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC's reverse repo operation today net injects 75 billion yuan] PBOC today conducted a 524.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from previous. Today, 449.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. On the US dollar side: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.03%, at 101.03. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 36.3%. Through September, the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged is 26.1%, with a 52.2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 21.4% chance of a 50-basis-point hike. (Jinshi Data APP) Citadel Securities said that Fed Chairman Warsh's commitment to reducing inflation has enhanced the Fed's credibility, thereby supporting long-term US Treasury yields and lowering term premiums. Following last week's Fed meeting, trading in the US Treasury market, worth $31 trillion, displayed a characteristic: long-term yields were more stable compared to two-year yields, which are more sensitive to policy. The firm's head of fixed income sales, Nohshad Shah, stated, "A highly credible Fed should benefit long-end rate performance." (Jinshi Data APP) Bank of America currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year, the latest sign that Wall Street is bracing for more aggressive Fed rate hikes. The bank's economists had previously expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged this year. The reason for the revision is strong economic data and a hawkish shift in the Fed's communication, signaling a more proactive approach to tackling inflation. Bank of America's forecast of three rate hikes remains in the minority: currently, only 19% of market investors expect three hikes, although this proportion has climbed from 3% a week ago. Investors see two rate hikes this year as the most likely outcome. In other currencies: After the yen weakened further and reports emerged of an online meeting between Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki and US Treasury Secretary Bessent, foreign exchange traders are on high alert for possible intervention. In early trading on Tuesday, the yen was at about 161.57 per dollar, near its lowest level in 40 years. NHK and Kyodo News reported that Katayama and Bessent may have discussed exchange rate issues. The market is concerned that after the Bank of Japan's rate hike at last week's policy meeting, it still has not raised borrowing costs quickly enough to curb inflation, keeping the yen under continuous pressure. Moreover, oil prices boosted by the US-Iran war also weighed additionally on the yen. Yamamoto Takeru, a trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in New York, said: "Japanese authorities may hope to send a signal through the US-Japan talks that they are coordinating actions with the US, while hinting that the threshold for implementing intervention is not high. Although market concerns about intervention have intensified, the fundamental factors for a weaker yen have not changed, and USD/JPY could test the 162 level this week." (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: data to be released today include France's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, Germany's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the Eurozone's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the UK's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the UK's preliminary June services PMI, the UK's June CBI industrial order balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 6, the US preliminary June S&P Global manufacturing PMI, the US preliminary June S&P Global services PMI, and the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, among others. Also worth noting: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivers a speech; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; MSCI releases its annual market classification review results, with South Korea expected to be added to the watch list for developed markets. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic edged lower, with WTI down 0.32% and Brent down 0.43%. As the market weighed early progress in peace talks on the Iran war, which included US permission to sell some Iranian crude, oil prices stabilized. The US 60-day license allows Iran to sell some oil and petroleum products. Babin Rebecca, managing director and senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, said, "The road to negotiations remains long, but the market may anticipate an oversupply before crude oil oversupply actually arrives, just as it had anticipated supply deficits before a genuine crude oil supply deficit materialized. Oil prices often overshoot." (Jin10 Data APP) Danske Bank forecasts that for the remainder of 2026, Brent crude will average $80 per barrel, and rise to $85 per barrel next year. The bank also said that even if a US-Iran deal is reached, oil prices will not return to the pre-war level of $60-$70 per barrel. The institution said a US-Iran deal would reopen oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but warned it would take months for Iran's oil production and exports to return to normal. The bank pointed out that the US's continued release of strategic petroleum reserves could affect the near-term supply landscape, and said the US may choose to maintain this policy for political reasons ahead of the November midterm elections. Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), US domestic raw steel production reached 1.851 million net tons for the week ending June 20, 2026, representing a 3.3% year-on-year increase compared to the 1.792 million net tons produced in the same week of 2025, though experiencing a marginal 0.2% week-on-week decline from 1.854 million net tons. The capability utilization rate stood at 80.2%, up from 79.8% last year but slightly down from 80.3% in the preceding week. Adjusted year-to-date production through June 20, 2026, totaled 44.395 million net tons with an average capability utilization rate of 78.6%, marking a robust 6.1% increase from the 41.828 million net tons and 76.8% utilization recorded during the same period in 2025. Geographically, the Southern district led production with 833,000 net tons, followed by the Great Lakes (496,000 net tons), the Midwest (318,000 net tons), the North East (129,000 net tons), and the Western region (75,000 net tons). The market impact points to a solid stabilization in domestic steel output; the consistent capability utilization above 80% and strong year-to-date growth reflect that North American mills are successfully sustaining production volumes to meet steady regional consumption amid a highly protected trade environment.

SMM Nickel Report, June 23: Macro and Market News: (1) Ministry of Finance: In January–May, national general public budget revenue reached 10,046.5 billion yuan, up 4% YoY; securities transaction stamp tax revenue was 126.2 billion yuan, up 88.8% YoY. (2) UK Prime Minister Starmer announced his resignation, stating that he will offer unreserved support to his successor. The new leader will take office in September. Spot Market: On June 23, SMM #1 refined nickel price rose 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel ranged from -600 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2607) opened lower and declined in the morning session, closing the morning session at 133,690 yuan/mt, down 0.72%. The US Fed's hawkish signals raised rate hike expectations, the US dollar index broke through the 100 mark, and the nonferrous metals sector came under systemic pressure. US-Iran negotiations remain volatile; while expectations for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz persist, uncertainty is high. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, fluctuating in the 133,000–140,000 yuan/mt range.

On June 23, the SMM #1 refined nickel price rose 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,350 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands were in the range of -600 to 400 yuan/mt.