In 2025, sulfur prices surged to 4,261 yuan/mt, a 10-year high. The uptrend extended into 2026, with the highest transaction price in China reaching 4,680 yuan/mt, up nearly 20 from the beginning of the year. At the core of this rally was an intense game between rigid supply constraints and a concentrated demand outbreak. Supply side, geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to escalate, and hindered transportation through the Strait of Hormuz directly disrupted the global supply chain. Combined with normalized supply cutoffs at Russian refineries, globally circulating resources dropped sharply. Demand side, Indonesia’s MHP capacity is seeing a “flood peak” — in 2026, five new MHP projects are expected to be added, with combined annual capacity of about 400,000 mt Ni. According to SMM estimates, sulfur consumption required for MHP production throughout the year will exceed 6 million mt, while China’s LFP production also expanded rapidly. The “dual engines” of new energy are reshaping global sulfur trade flows. SMM’s model predicts that the global sulfur supply-demand gap will continue to widen from 2025 to 2027. At the key March period, the resonance between fertilizer stockpiling for spring farming and new energy’s “scramble for sulfur” is driving an intense game around costs, policy, and supply and demand.

Highlights

1. Competitive Landscape of Different Acid Production Types: Market Share of Sulfuric Acid from Sulfur and Smelting Acid

2. Three Major Changes on the Global Supply Side: Russia’s Supply Cut Becoming the Norm, Kazakhstan’s Capacity Internalization, and the Restructuring of Middle East Trade Flows

3. Dual-Core Demand-Side Drivers: Rigid Demand from Traditional Fertilizers Providing Support and an Explosion in New Energy Demand from Indonesia’s MHP

4. China vs. Indonesia in the Import Game: Competition Between Two Major Demand Engines for the Same Resource Pool and the Pass-Through of Procurement Costs

5. 2026 Supply-Demand Gap Forecast: The SMM Model Shows a Widening Gap, with the Price Center More Likely to Rise Than Fall

6. Tracking Key Variables: Indonesia MHP Commissioning Progress, Geopolitical Risks in the Middle East, and the Window of Competition for Sulfur Between Spring Plowing and New Energy