Record industrial demand, supply deficits, and new U.S. policy changes now place silver at the center of modern manufacturing.

Steep price reversal: Silver plunged nearly 11% and gold turned volatile after India hiked import duties to 15%, reversing initial post-hike gains. Policy-driven impact: The government raised duties to curb imports, protect forex reserves, and support the rupee amid the West Asia crisis. Market outlook: Higher tariffs may hurt demand, slow industrial imports, and prompt smuggling, while global inflation and dollar strength keep pressure on bullion. Immediate market reaction to duty hike The import duty increase from 6% to 15% on gold and silver triggered a dramatic reversal in silver prices, with MCX silver plunging nearly 11% or ₹32,624 per kilogram in just two sessions. Gold prices also turned volatile, with spot gold trading around 4% below its recent peak as inflation data and a stronger US dollar sapped momentum. The initial rally from higher landed costs was quickly erased as traders booked profits and demand weakened at elevated prices. Economic and policy rationale behind the hike The Finance Ministry's move to restore the earlier higher duty structure aims to curb non-essential imports, safeguard foreign exchange reserves, and support macroeconomic stability amid the West Asia crisis. Officials highlighted the need to prioritise forex for essential imports like crude oil and fertilisers, noting the rupee’s record low this year. The hike follows Prime Minister Modi’s call for citizens to avoid non-essential gold purchases, reversing 2024’s duty cuts intended to curb smuggling and aid the jewellery sector. Live Mint + 4 "The increase in customs duty on imports of gold, and precious metals announced by the government is aimed at safeguarding macroeconomic stability and conserving foreign exchange reserves. The measures have been taken also to moderate non-essential imports during a period of heightened global uncertainty arising from the ongoing West Asia crisis." Fortune India Why volatility matters for India’s bullion market India, the world’s largest silver importer and second-largest gold consumer, faces potential demand destruction as higher tariffs lift local prices. Silver’s significant industrial demand—from solar panels to EVs—means it is trading more like an industrial commodity, making it sensitive to growth concerns from elevated oil prices. Analysts warn that reduced official imports could revive smuggling and dampen both jewellery and industrial demand, especially if geopolitical tensions keep inflation risks high. The Economic Times + 4 Short- and long-term outlook In the short term, bullion prices may remain range-bound as profit booking offsets structural support from central bank purchases and ETF inflows. Over the longer term, silver retains strong global demand drivers from AI infrastructure, green energy, and electronics, though a weaker economic outlook could limit gains. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing macroeconomic stability with potential social and market disruptions from sharp tax interventions. The Economic Times + 4 Source： https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/insight/gold-and-silver-prices-tumble-after-steep-import-duty-hike

Inter-product price spreads are a segment of the rebar spread system characterized by complex logic and abundant trading opportunities. Unlike the spot-futures price spread, which reflects the spot-futures structure, and calendar spreads, which reflect near- and far-term expectations, the core of inter-product price spreads lies in macroeconomic structural adjustment and profit distribution across the industry chain. From the perspective of the industry chain, inter-product price spreads for long steel products are mainly concentrated in the following four areas:

Q1 SHFE Aluminum Price Review (By Stage) January: Market traded on Fed rate-cut expectations, decoupled from fundamentals Fundamentals: Spring Festival low season + demand vacuum + inventory accumulationAluminum prices rose continuously and hit a historical high for the period, squeezing downstream profit margins and weighing on primary aluminum demand.Environmental production restrictions in some regions constrained raw material consumption.Social inventories of primary aluminum kept accumulating. By the end of January, SMM social aluminum ingot inventory rose to 782,000 tonnes, the highest level for the same period in nearly three years. Macroeconomics: The Federal Reserve was in a rate-cut cycle in January. The U.S. dollar weakened notably, and large capital inflows into commodity futures boosted broad commodity prices.Coupled with positive domestic consumption-boosting policies, aluminum prices were well supported. February: Market traded on Fed rate-hold expectations, decoupled from fundamentals Fundamentals: Aluminum prices traded in a weak range.Domestic downstream fabricators sharply reduced purchases due to the Spring Festival holiday, while smelters raised ingot-casting activity, leading to continued accumulation in primary aluminum social inventories.After the holiday, SMM social aluminum ingot inventory climbed to 1.108 million tonnes. High inventory provided little upward support for aluminum prices. Macroeconomics: Diminished U.S. rate-cut expectations drove the DXY stronger. Profit-taking capital outflows triggered a pullback in aluminum prices, reinforcing the weak sideways pattern. March: Market swung between Middle East supply disruptions and demand headwinds Intensive long-short competition drove aluminum prices into a “rally – correction – rebound” volatile structure. Supply side: Frequent overseas production cuts continued to roil the market.Mozal entered maintenance. Qatar Aluminum announced it would halt further cuts and maintain 60% operating rate.Alba Bahrain shut down Lines 1, 2 and 3 under controlled and safe conditions, with market rumors later emerging that Line 4 may also face production cuts or shutdowns.EGA suffered severe facility damage, with the extent still under assessment; the market expects large-scale production cuts or shutdowns.Worsening concerns over global supply shortages became the key driver of periodic aluminum price gains. Escalating Middle East conflicts and safety concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened uncertainty over global primary aluminum supply, injecting sustained geopolitical risk premium and supporting high price levels. Demand side: Rising stagflation fears boosted risk aversion, pressuring aluminum prices to correct and limiting upside. Downside risks in overseas demand became prominent, as downstream fabricators faced multiple constraints:(1) High aluminum prices significantly suppressed purchasing willingness and restrained demand realization;(2) Shortages of natural gas, crude oil and other energy resources forced some fabricators to cut or halt production;(3) Sharply rising freight and smelting costs squeezed downstream margins, further dampening demand indirectly.

The gold price has undergone a sharp correction since its January high, unsettling many investors. The price decline of more than $1,000 per ounce appears at first glance to represent a break in the previous uptrend. However, according to analysts at WisdomTree, this movement reflects less a fundamental change in the macroeconomic situation than a combination of position adjustments, liquidity needs, and short-term market pressure.

According to SMM, mainstream Indonesian stainless steel mills have raised their export quotations by a significant USD 50/mt today. Beyond the fundamental tightness in raw materials, this sharp upward adjustment is heavily driven by the lingering ripple effects of global geopolitical conflicts. The prolonged war has severely disrupted international supply chains, triggering a broad rally in safe-haven commodities and driving up global energy and shipping costs. This macroeconomic spillover has intensified cost-push inflation across the nickel and stainless steel industry chain, forcing mills to aggressively hike prices to hedge against surging comprehensive costs and mounting geopolitical uncertainties.

According to SMM data, during the first week of the traditional "Golden March" peak season (March 2 - March 6, 2026), the most-traded stainless steel futures contract (SS2604) exhibited a strong, high-level oscillating trend. This was driven by the resonance of international geopolitical storms and the tone set by China's macroeconomic policies. By the close at 10:15 on March 6, the contract traded higher at 14,235 yuan/mt (approx. $2,063/mt), up 85 yuan/mt (approx. $12/mt) (+0.60%) from last Friday's close of 14,150 yuan/mt (approx. $2,051/mt). The market this week was characterized by "strong expectations but weak reality." A sudden global supply chain crisis and firm raw material costs provided a solid floor for market valuations. However, high spot inventories and the looming pressure of resumed production kept prices cautious when attempting upward breakouts. Macro-Economy: A "Super Macro Week" Defined by Geopolitics and Policy Support On the macroeconomic front, this was undeniably a "super macro week" with exceptionally strong signals from China and the global market. Internationally, a geopolitical "black swan" emerged as Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed and threatened to strike passing vessels. This extreme event immediately sparked fears of a global supply chain crisis and surging energy expectations. U.S. Federal Reserve officials subsequently voiced concerns over the war's spillover effects and a potential rebound in inflation, significantly cooling expectations for interest rate cuts. However, in the commodities market, trades driven by "inflation hedging" and "supply chain disruptions" boosted the overall premium of the base metals sector. In China, the government work report delivered at the "Two Sessions" set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%-5%. It explicitly proposed utilizing capacity regulations and standard-setting to deeply rectify "involutionary" (cut-throat) competition. This policy direction provides strong expectation-driven support for supply-side optimization in traditional Chinese manufacturing. Fundamentals: Inventories Near Peak, Clash of Supply and Demand Imminent Fundamentally, social inventories are showing early signs of peaking, though the market will soon face the test of surging supply. The latest SMM data shows social inventories at 1.0164 million mt this week, a marginal increase of just 300 mt from last week's 1.0161 million mt. The seasonal inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival fully aligns with industry patterns and remains within market expectations. Traders have not resorted to panic selling, keeping short-term inventory pressure manageable. However, a shift is brewing on the supply side. The output reduction caused by concentrated maintenance at Chinese steel mills in February is nearing its end. As mills enter a concentrated resumption phase in March, scheduled production is expected to rise sharply. This surge in supply will clash head-on with recovering demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, leading to a phased reshaping of the market's supply-demand dynamics. Costs: Robust Upward Resilience Sets a Solid Floor On the cost side, raw materials continued to show robust upward resilience, establishing a solid baseline for futures prices. Driven by the ongoing fallout from Indonesian nickel ore quotas and premium news, raw material prices rose across the board this week. As of March 6, high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) quotes climbed to 1,088 yuan/mtu (approx. $158/mtu), and high-carbon ferrochrome prices were adjusted upwards to 8,600 yuan/50 mt (approx. $1,246/50 mt). Although mainstream steel mills currently show low acceptance of high NPI prices and remain cautious in procurement—resulting in sparse actual market transactions—the raw material sector has minimal room to yield on price, dominated by expectations of tight ore supply and bullish sentiment. The steady climb in spot costs has effectively capped the downside risk for stainless steel prices. Outlook and Strategy In conclusion, the stainless steel market this week sought a balance amid the fierce tug-of-war between "geopolitical premiums + cost support" and "million-ton inventories + production resumption expectations." The macroeconomic shifts triggered by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, coupled with China's "Two Sessions" mandate to curb cut-throat competition, have injected immense confidence into the bulls regarding macro sentiment. Looking ahead to next week, the market will deeply enter the reality-check phase of the "Golden March" peak season. The core focus will shift to the actual implementation of steel mill resumptions in March and the pace at which downstream end-users digest substantial orders. In the short term, futures prices are expected to maintain wide fluctuations at high levels, underpinned by the cost line. Industry clients are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments and the pace of spot inventory destocking, while rationally utilizing futures tools to lock in production margins.

Global precious metals markets witnessed significant pressure on Tuesday as silver prices declined sharply, with the XAG/USD pair falling below the critical $94.00 threshold amid renewed demand for the US Dollar.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,474.5/mt, initially fluctuating rangebound and reaching $13,527/mt. Later, the center of copper prices gradually shifted downward, touching $13,290/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $13,296/mt, with a gain of 0.28%. Trading volume reached 25,300 lots, and open interest stood at 315,000 lots, down by 497 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing their positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 104,230 yuan/mt, quickly rising to 104,520 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward, bottoming out at 103,100 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 103,280 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0.45%. Trading volume reached 77,700 lots, and open interest stood at 202,000 lots, down by 2,150 lots from the previous trading day, also characterized by bears reducing their positions.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Coexistence of Energy Supply Pressure and Lead Ingot Inventory Buildup May Lead to Continued Price Consolidation] The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, obstruction of major shipping routes, and expectations for rising transportation costs are anticipated to increase pressure on Europe's energy supply. After the domestic holiday, the lead market has experienced severe inventory buildup...