June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 16 news: Overnight, LME lead opened at a low of $1,965/mt and fluctuated upward during the Asian session. After entering the European session, due to a decline in LME lead inventory, it touched a high of $1,981/mt, then gave back some gains toward the close, and finally closed at $1,968.5/mt, up 0.08%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,240 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,210 yuan/mt early in the session, then edged up to touch a high of 16,315 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,265 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Last week, lead prices declined, and downstream buying interest on dips picked up. Influenced by secondary lead smelters holding back from selling and their relatively high quotes, purchasing demand shifted significantly to EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters, and currently, smelters in Henan are still shipping goods based on order schedules. Yesterday, the SHFE lead 2606 contract was settled, with suppliers concentrating shipments to delivery warehouses, and social inventory increased as expected. At present, both primary and secondary lead enterprises face maintenance and raw material shortages, and supply remains tight with uncertainties. SMM believes that after the delivery is completed, the pressure of lead ingot inventory buildup will gradually ease, and the upward resistance to lead prices is expected to weaken.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at a low of $1,965/mt, fluctuating upward during Asian trading hours; entering the European session, it touched a high of $1,981/mt, then gave back some gains towards the close, eventually ending at $1,968.5/mt, up 0.08%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,240 yuan/mt, dipping to a session low of 16,210 yuan/mt early on before edging up to a high of 16,315 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,265 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. On the macro front: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a 43-year low. Middle East situation – Trump: Will allow Iran to conduct low-level uranium enrichment. May or may not attend the agreement signing on the 19th. The strait will fully open on Friday. Importantly, oil prices have dropped sharply while the stock market is rising. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice to launch a three-year campaign to tackle energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries. SAFE: In May, foreign-invested enterprises' dividend and profit distribution expenditures increased seasonally, and foreign investors were net buyers of domestic stocks and bonds overall. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead reversed course and rebounded, with suppliers selling along with the market. Some offered wider discounts from last Friday, but some smelters, with low inventory, remained relatively firm in their pricing. Mainstream production region primary lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt, EXW. For secondary lead, smelters had divergent attitudes toward selling. Secondary refined lead quotations against SMM #1 lead were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt, EXW. Downstream enterprises mostly turned cautious, with fewer inquiries; some temporarily focused on digesting inventories, and spot market transactions weakened. Inventory: On June 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,025 mt to 304,850 mt; as of June 15, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, an increase of 3,000 mt from June 8 and an increase of 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast today: Last week, lead prices declined, and downstream dip-buying demand warmed up. Affected by secondary lead smelters holding back from selling and their high quotes, purchasing demand shifted significantly to EXW primary lead cargoes. At present, Henan smelters are still shipping on order. Yesterday, the SHFE lead 2606 contract completed delivery, with suppliers shipping to delivery warehouses in a concentrated manner, and social inventory increased as expected. Currently, both primary and secondary lead enterprises face maintenance and raw material shortages, with supply tight and uncertain. SMM believes that after the delivery, lead ingot inventory buildup pressure will gradually ease, and upside resistance to lead prices is expected to weaken.

SMM, June 15 – The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,115 yuan/mt intraday, fluctuating upward initially to hit a high of 16,290 yuan/mt. Prices moved sideways in a range of 16,230-16,285 yuan/mt during midday, and futures pulled back slightly in the afternoon, trading at 16,210-16,255 yuan/mt, before closing at 16,240 yuan/mt, up 185 yuan/mt or 1.15% from the previous trading day. The US and Iran reached a peace agreement, the Strait of Hormuz reopened for navigation, and the easing of geopolitical risks drove non-ferrous metals higher across the board today. Supply side, domestic primary and secondary lead enterprises saw mixed production changes, with the overall supply landscape relatively unchanged. Inventory side, LME lead inventory and SMM social inventory across five regions continued their pullback trend, though the destocking pace remained slow. Despite higher lead prices intraday, downstream end-use consumption remained weak, market wait-and-see sentiment increased, and enterprises' inquiry and purchase willingness was generally low. Overall, short-term lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. Intraday, the SHFE lead 2606 contract closed at 16,190 yuan/mt, with a settlement price of 16,130 yuan/mt, open interest of 4,360 lots, delivery volume of 21,800 mt, and warrant inventory of 63,201 mt, achieving a smooth delivery. Data source statement: All data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and not as a basis for decision-making.

SMM June 15 News: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals moved higher across the board. SHFE copper rose 1.35%, SHFE tin rose 4.35%. SHFE nickel rose 1.27%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.31%, SHFE zinc rose 2.37%, SHFE lead rose 1.21%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.67%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged lower. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.8%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.67%. Ferrous metals rose broadly, with iron ore up 0.39%, rebar up 0.41%, hot-rolled coil up 0.5%, and stainless steel up 1.54%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.97%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.06%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:38, LME metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.89%, LME aluminum fell 0.17%, LME lead rose 0.56%, LME zinc rose 0.85%, LME tin rose 2.35%, LME nickel rose 1.12%. Precious metals: As of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 2.47%, COMEX silver rose 3.52%. Domestic precious metals: The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 4.58%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 7.93%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.67%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.36%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe route container shipping futures contract fell 3.44% to 3,773.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 15, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc were concentrated at 24,650-24,885 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transactions were at 24,740-24,945 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions were at 24,580-24,815 yuan/mt. In early trading, market quotes against SMM’s average price were at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt, with no quotes against the futures price yet... Macro Front Domestic: [NDRC and Other Departments: Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Key Industries’ Energy-Saving and Carbon-Reducing Transformation] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments have decided to organize a three-year campaign for energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformation in key industries, including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It was mentioned that key industries have large-scale and high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them the top priority for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting from 2026, nine key industries—steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power—will be the focus of a three-year initiative to fully implement energy-saving and carbon-reduction retrofits. This aims to drive enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency levels as much as possible, leading to a marked improvement in the green and low-carbon development of these industries. Beginning in 2028, the scope of implementation will be further expanded based on practical circumstances, with additional industries advanced in a phased manner. All regions may proceed in an orderly fashion as needed, based on local conditions. [PBOC Reverse Repo Injects Net 206.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted a 425 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.27% to 99.53. Easing tensions in the Middle East led the market to scale back bets on US Fed interest rate hikes. Interest rate swaps showed traders now see a roughly 60% probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points before December, down from about 80% last Friday. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, according to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. The probability of holding rates steady through July is 91.3%, with a 7.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 1.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: US consumer confidence rebounded for the first time in four months in early June, as lower gasoline prices offered some relief to Americans grappling with surging inflation. A survey released Friday showed the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for June rose to 48.9 from May's record low of 44.8. Economists had expected a modest recovery to 46. Consumers anticipated prices would rise 4.6% YoY over the next year, down from 4.8% in May. They also projected costs would climb at an average annual rate of 3.4% over the next five to ten years, also below the prior month's expected increase. Although gasoline prices remain higher than pre-Ukraine war levels, the decline in recent weeks has lessened pessimism about personal finances among Americans. The report showed a notable improvement in sentiment among lower-income consumers, who typically allocate a larger share of their budgets to fuel costs. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the Iran war and the resulting wave of inflation, overall economic sentiment remains at historically depressed levels. Survey Director Joanne Hsu stated, "While there has been some relief, gasoline prices still have a significant impact on consumers. As a result, current price levels remain broadly unacceptable to consumers and have dampened their view of the economy." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Switzerland’s May Consumer Confidence Index, the Eurozone’s April seasonally adjusted trade balance, Eurozone April industrial production MoM, Canada April wholesale sales MoM, the US June Empire State manufacturing index, US May industrial production MoM, the US June NAHB Housing Market Index, and China’s May total electricity consumption YoY (to be determined), among other data. Attention should also be paid to: ECB President Lagarde’s speech; the National Energy Administration’s release of total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; and the opening of the G7 summit, which runs through June 17. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell sharply, with WTI down 5.58% and Brent down 4.76%. A US-Iran peace agreement is expected to be signed soon, easing market concerns over crude supply and putting oil prices under pressure. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump stated on social media on the 14th that with the signing of the US-Iran agreement on the 19th, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened for mine-clearing operations. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister also indicated that an immediate and permanent halt to military operations on multiple fronts, including in Lebanon, will be announced starting tonight. Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the US nationwide average gasoline price fell below $4 per gallon on Sunday for the first time since April 20. He expects that in an optimistic scenario, the nationwide average price could fall below $3.75 per gallon before July 4, but the hurricane season could be a major variable in the latter half of the summer. " The coming weeks are critical—any major misstep could significantly impact the subsequent oil price trajectory." (Wall Street CN) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, June 15: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt, swung wildly during the Asian session, hitting a low of $1,947.5/mt; after entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward, touched a high of $1,968.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $1,967/mt, up 0.49%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,055 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,035 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then moved sideways, touched a high of 16,125 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 16,100 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. Demand side, production at lead-acid battery enterprises was relatively stable; after lead prices fell, downstream enterprises bought the dip on demand; and, considering the potential mid-year book closing and inventory check in late June, some downstream enterprises bought in advance. Supply side, production at primary and secondary lead enterprises saw both increases and decreases, and supply differences are expected to be relatively small. In-factory inventories at both declined, easing smelters' shipment pressure. In particular, secondary lead smelters, suffering severe losses, showed limited willingness to sell. Spot lead is expected to continue selling at a small premium (over SMM #1 lead). If SHFE lead falls again, the possibility of spot lead trading above futures cannot be ruled out.