As of May 26, the Shanghai-LME zinc price ratio stood at 6.97, continuing its downward trend from 7.4 recorded in late March, which has led to a widening import loss of refined zinc ingots in China. According to calculations by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), the current import loss of China’s refined zinc ingots has expanded to approximately RMB 3,800 per metric ton of metal.

[Geopolitical Tensions Fluctuate as SHFE and LME Zinc Prices Fluctuate Upward] At the beginning of the week, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified. On the macro front, the Middle East situation remained unresolved and market uncertainty persisted, but the US dollar index retreated from highs. Combined with persistently low ex-China zinc ingot inventory, LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend......

[Will Refined Zinc Maintain Net Imports in April with Exports Increasing in May?] According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in April 2026 were 6,000 mt, down 8,400 mt or 58.27%% MoM, and down 78.62% YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports from January to April were 49,000 mt, down 61.98% YoY cumulatively. Refined zinc exports in April were 3,900 mt, down 16.22% MoM and up 59.21% YoY.

[Continuous Overseas Supply Disruptions Drive SHFE and LME Zinc Prices Higher] At the beginning of the week, LME zinc continued the fluctuating trend from last week; subsequently, zinc prices edged down as the U.S.-Iran peace agreement was not reached; however, the ongoing fermentation of Peru's energy emergency decree drove a broad rally in non-ferrous metals, and LME zinc rebounded; immediately after, Zazzinc's lead-zinc mine in Kazakhstan reduced its operating load following an accident, and LME zinc continued to surge......

On May 13, 2026, Nexa Resources announced that an accident occurred in the morning at the Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru, triggering a fire. The fire has been brought under control, and operations have been suspended. It was reported that no fatalities resulted from the incident. Some infrastructure at the smelter sustained damage. Based on currently available information, the company expects the incident will not have a significant impact. Last night, LME zinc prices surged to $3,582.5/mt at one point, hitting a new high since August 2022. According to SMM, Cajamarquilla is the largest zinc smelter in Latin America, with refined zinc production reaching 345,300 mt in 2025, the highest output since commissioning. The actual impact going forward still requires further monitoring.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 24,350 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE zinc briefly rose to a high of 24,410 yuan/mt, then pulled back under pressure. Near the end of the session, it moved below the daily average line to a low of 24,280 yuan/mt, ultimately closing up at 24,315 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.12%. Trading volume decreased to 41,272 lots, and open interest increased by 895 lots to 90,766 lots.