[Zinc Fundamental Trading Logic Amid the Middle East Conflict: Risk Identification and Opportunity Capture] Global geopolitical conflicts have continued unabated, and news of the recent Middle East conflict has emerged frequently. What impact will this have on the zinc industry? This article provides an analysis from both fundamental and market perspectives:

[Weaker Macro Sentiment, SHFE Zinc Center Shifted Lower]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,460 yuan/mt. Early in the session, bulls reduced open interest, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward to a low below 24,300 yuan/mt. As downward momentum proved insufficient, the SHFE zinc center moved higher. It closed down at 24,415 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.02%. Trading volume fell to 105,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 5,934 lots to 74,747 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: US Dollar Index Plunged; LME Zinc Center Moved Higher] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,313/mt and dipped to $3,282/mt in early trading. It then fluctuated upward, with its center moving higher to a peak of $3,367.5/mt. After entering the European trading session, prices pulled back. During the night session, LME zinc gradually recouped its losses and returned to trade near the daily moving average.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened higher with a gap at 24,505 yuan/mt, touched a high of 24,525 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to a low of 24,375 yuan/mt as bulls reduced open interest. As bears also reduced open interest, prices rebounded and fluctuated near the daily average line, finally closing up at 24,425 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.02%. Trading volume fell to 47,061 lots, and open interest decreased by 3,653 lots to 770.28 million lots.

[SHFE Zinc Center Shifted Higher]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,255 yuan/mt. Early in the session, bulls reduced open interest, and SHFE zinc edged lower to test 24,160 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bears reduced open interest, lifting the center of SHFE zinc. It touched a high and finally closed up at 24,420 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.66%. Trading volume increased to 161,000 lots, while open interest fell by 4,635 lots to 80,681 lots.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,350 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE zinc fluctuated downward, dipping to below 24,220 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bears reduced their open interest, and the center of SHFE zinc moved higher, touching above 24,370 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 24,330 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt, or 0.29%. Trading volume fell to 58,655 lots, and open interest decreased by 932 lots to 84,384 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data; LME Zinc Posted a Bullish Candlestick] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,240.0/mt and dipped to $3,221.0/mt in early trading. It then saw its center fluctuate upward at a slow pace. After entering the night session, it accelerated higher and touched a high above $3,343.0/mt, finally closing up at $3,323.0/mt, up $93/mt, a gain of 2.88%. Trading volume increased to 121,000 lots, while open interest fell by 516 lots to 219,000 lots.

[Geopolitical Tensions Disrupted the Market, With SHFE and LME Closing Lower Over the Week] At the beginning of the week, continued overseas destocking supported a higher center for LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical tensions fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower......

[Frequent Supply Disruptions; Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC for SMM Zn50 domestic remained flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell by $8.37/dmt MoM to $15.38/dmt...

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Rebounded and Hovered Around 7.4]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio rebounded and fluctuated around just below 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, continued destocking supported the upward shift in the center of LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical developments fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower.