[Frequent Supply Disruptions; Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC for SMM Zn50 domestic remained flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell by $8.37/dmt MoM to $15.38/dmt...

Entering March, as the bullish sentiment in precious metal prices weakened, some lead smelters became less willing to obtain silver-bearing lead concentrates raw materials by paying lower TCs. Although lead concentrate TCs have yet to see a substantive rebound, smelters generally stated that it remained difficult for mainstream lead concentrate TC quotations to rise in March, but the phenomenon of transactions involving scrambling for ore at extremely low prices has disappeared. As the absolute level of silver prices can still enable smelters to obtain relatively substantial profits, in March smelters did not have expectations of negotiating downward the relevant payable indicator.

A blocked Strait of Hormuz would upend global methanol supplies, hammer conventional methanol markets, and elevate green methanol’s strategic value, pushing China to diversify imports and boost green methanol for supply security.

[Geopolitical Tensions Disrupted the Market, With SHFE and LME Closing Lower Over the Week] At the beginning of the week, continued overseas destocking supported a higher center for LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical tensions fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower......

[Guangdong Premiums Weakened; Watch for Subsequent Changes in Consumption] This week, premiums in Guangdong fell by about 5 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, mainstream 0# zinc was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt in Guangdong, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread narrowed......

SMM News on March 6: From February 27, 2026 to March 6, 2026, the weekly operating rate of SMM secondary lead across four provinces was 27.12%, down 2.6 percentage points WoW. Most smelters in Anhui had yet to resume production, while smelters in Henan cut production due to tight raw material supply; workers at smelters in Jiangsu returned to work after the Lantern Festival, and the operating rate increased by about 5 percentage points this week; the operating rate in Inner Mongolia was flat WoW. Affected by factors including environmental protection requirements during the Two Sessions, tight raw material supply, and weak downstream demand, secondary lead smelters’ production resumptions were concentrated at month-end March, and SMM expected relatively small fluctuations in the operating rate next week. > Subscribe to view SMM historical metal spot prices

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Rebounded and Hovered Around 7.4]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio rebounded and fluctuated around just below 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, continued destocking supported the upward shift in the center of LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical developments fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower.

[Downstream Held Some Raw Material Inventory; Trading Remained Weak During the Week]: This week, spot discounts in Ningbo widened, while the weekly average price was basically flat WoW. As of this Friday, spot prices in Ningbo against the 2604 contract were at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, and a premium of 30 yuan/mt against Shanghai. The premium against Shanghai fluctuated during the week.

DCE iron ore held up well today and dropped back slightly before the close. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 772 yuan/mt, up 1.38% from the previous trading session. The spot price rose 10-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, while steel mills made fewer inquiries. Spot trading sentiment was subdued. According to SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 major ports nationwide stood at 154.8 million mt, down 590,000 mt MoM, indicating a slight destocking trend. Over the same period, the daily average port pick-up volume rebounded to 2.55 million mt, up 145,000 mt MoM, suggesting a faster pace of port shipments. Demand improved slightly. The core logic supporting iron ore prices is gradually shifting from macro demand to structural contradictions on the supply side. Market concerns over structural shortages of certain mainstream mid- to high-grade ore types are fermenting, and these expectations have strengthened bullish sentiment, providing solid bottom support for prices. Looking ahead, the market is expected to see a tug-of-war between supply and demand in the short term. On the one hand, based on the production schedule, enforcement of blast furnace maintenance is expected to strengthen next week, which will create a phased restraint on immediate iron ore consumption. Against this backdrop of weaker demand, the aforementioned structural tightness on the supply side may be temporarily less apparent. However, once this round of concentrated maintenance ends and blast furnaces resume production as planned, iron ore demand is set to warm up in the short term. Driven by a rebound in demand, the structural shortage contradiction on the supply side will quickly stand out as the market’s main trading logic, and iron ore prices are expected to, overall, hold up well at that time.

According to SMM data, during the first week of the traditional "Golden March" peak season (March 2 - March 6, 2026), the most-traded stainless steel futures contract (SS2604) exhibited a strong, high-level oscillating trend. This was driven by the resonance of international geopolitical storms and the tone set by China's macroeconomic policies. By the close at 10:15 on March 6, the contract traded higher at 14,235 yuan/mt (approx. $2,063/mt), up 85 yuan/mt (approx. $12/mt) (+0.60%) from last Friday's close of 14,150 yuan/mt (approx. $2,051/mt). The market this week was characterized by "strong expectations but weak reality." A sudden global supply chain crisis and firm raw material costs provided a solid floor for market valuations. However, high spot inventories and the looming pressure of resumed production kept prices cautious when attempting upward breakouts. Macro-Economy: A "Super Macro Week" Defined by Geopolitics and Policy Support On the macroeconomic front, this was undeniably a "super macro week" with exceptionally strong signals from China and the global market. Internationally, a geopolitical "black swan" emerged as Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed and threatened to strike passing vessels. This extreme event immediately sparked fears of a global supply chain crisis and surging energy expectations. U.S. Federal Reserve officials subsequently voiced concerns over the war's spillover effects and a potential rebound in inflation, significantly cooling expectations for interest rate cuts. However, in the commodities market, trades driven by "inflation hedging" and "supply chain disruptions" boosted the overall premium of the base metals sector. In China, the government work report delivered at the "Two Sessions" set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%-5%. It explicitly proposed utilizing capacity regulations and standard-setting to deeply rectify "involutionary" (cut-throat) competition. This policy direction provides strong expectation-driven support for supply-side optimization in traditional Chinese manufacturing. Fundamentals: Inventories Near Peak, Clash of Supply and Demand Imminent Fundamentally, social inventories are showing early signs of peaking, though the market will soon face the test of surging supply. The latest SMM data shows social inventories at 1.0164 million mt this week, a marginal increase of just 300 mt from last week's 1.0161 million mt. The seasonal inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival fully aligns with industry patterns and remains within market expectations. Traders have not resorted to panic selling, keeping short-term inventory pressure manageable. However, a shift is brewing on the supply side. The output reduction caused by concentrated maintenance at Chinese steel mills in February is nearing its end. As mills enter a concentrated resumption phase in March, scheduled production is expected to rise sharply. This surge in supply will clash head-on with recovering demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, leading to a phased reshaping of the market's supply-demand dynamics. Costs: Robust Upward Resilience Sets a Solid Floor On the cost side, raw materials continued to show robust upward resilience, establishing a solid baseline for futures prices. Driven by the ongoing fallout from Indonesian nickel ore quotas and premium news, raw material prices rose across the board this week. As of March 6, high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) quotes climbed to 1,088 yuan/mtu (approx. $158/mtu), and high-carbon ferrochrome prices were adjusted upwards to 8,600 yuan/50 mt (approx. $1,246/50 mt). Although mainstream steel mills currently show low acceptance of high NPI prices and remain cautious in procurement—resulting in sparse actual market transactions—the raw material sector has minimal room to yield on price, dominated by expectations of tight ore supply and bullish sentiment. The steady climb in spot costs has effectively capped the downside risk for stainless steel prices. Outlook and Strategy In conclusion, the stainless steel market this week sought a balance amid the fierce tug-of-war between "geopolitical premiums + cost support" and "million-ton inventories + production resumption expectations." The macroeconomic shifts triggered by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, coupled with China's "Two Sessions" mandate to curb cut-throat competition, have injected immense confidence into the bulls regarding macro sentiment. Looking ahead to next week, the market will deeply enter the reality-check phase of the "Golden March" peak season. The core focus will shift to the actual implementation of steel mill resumptions in March and the pace at which downstream end-users digest substantial orders. In the short term, futures prices are expected to maintain wide fluctuations at high levels, underpinned by the cost line. Industry clients are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments and the pace of spot inventory destocking, while rationally utilizing futures tools to lock in production margins.