[SMM Update] SHFE data showed that on April 20, the total registered cast aluminum alloy warrants stood at 29,764 mt, a decrease of 119 mt from the previous trading day. Specifically, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 1,822 mt (unchanged), Guangdong 11,148 mt (unchanged), Jiangsu 3,635 mt (unchanged), Zhejiang 8,081 mt (down 119 mt), Chongqing 3,572 mt (unchanged), and Sichuan 1,506 mt (unchanged).

Today, SMM's premium quotation range for the Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag (T+D) was TD-40 to 0 yuan/kg, with an average of -20 yuan/kg, and market quotations varied significantly across different brands of circulating supplies. The spot market saw severe involution among numerous shippers in pricing, and downstream consumption remained dismal during the off-season, with negotiation margins continuing to edge lower, and overall transactions were sluggish. In the early session, suppliers offered national-standard silver in the range of TD-30 to -10 yuan/kg. Downstream purchase willingness was subdued, with most participants adopting a wait-and-see approach, exercising caution in procurement, or making just-in-time procurement in small volumes. Currently, shippers maintained a wait-and-see attitude, considering registered warrants operations, with increasing reliance on banking institutions for price support.

[SMM Express] SHFE data showed that on April 20, the total registered cast aluminum alloy warrants were 29,883 mt, a decrease of 668 mt from the previous trading day. Specifically, Shanghai (1,822 mt, increase of 0 mt), Guangdong (11,148 mt, decrease of 424 mt), Jiangsu (3,635 mt, decrease of 213 mt), Zhejiang (8,200 mt, increase of 0 mt), Chongqing (3,572 mt, decrease of 31 mt), and Sichuan (1,506 mt, increase of 0 mt).

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.20 Futures: Last Friday during the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract 2609 opened at 2,762 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,777 yuan/mt and a low of 2,748 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,750 yuan/mt, up 84 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 134,000 lots to 274,000 lots, with continued tug-of-war between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,780.4), MA10 (2,790.50), and MA30 (2,938.23), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward moves. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (-28.37) crossed above DIF (-54.32), with the "death cross continuing" and the histogram at -31.91. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes. Ore: As of April 15, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.99/mt, up $0.04/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $69/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $63/mt, up $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was at $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $81.5/mt, up $3/mt from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply remained relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. For imported ore, amid ocean freight rate fluctuations, some mines controlled shipments, providing certain support for ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventory in China remained at high levels (approximately 92 days), and alumina refineries showed weak purchase willingness, with continued price negotiations between buyers and sellers. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends. Spot Price: As of April 16, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,680.25 yuan/mt, down 13.32 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,650.82 yuan/mt, down 14.71 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,691.88 yuan/mt, down 16.96 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,685.65 yuan/mt, down 26.21 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,726.82 yuan/mt, down 13.4 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,665.39 yuan/mt, down 13.88 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on April 16, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 13.25 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract based on the latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On April 16, total registered alumina warrants increased by 4,799 mt from the previous trading day to 478,900 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained flat from the previous trading day at 58,375 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Henan increased by 4,795 mt from the previous trading day to 36,322 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Guangxi increased by 4 mt from the previous trading day to 17,434 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Gansu remained flat from the previous trading day at 49,847 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang remained flat from the previous trading day at 310,900 mt. Markets Outside China: As of April 16, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was at $306/mt, the ocean freight rate was at $30.05/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.84. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,678.42 yuan/mt, which was 1.83 yuan/mt below the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window remained open. Summary: Supply side, the industry operating rate edged up this week, mainly driven by production resumptions after production line upgrades in Shanxi and continued ramp-up of new capacity in Guangxi. Demand side, aluminum operations remained stable overall, with demand holding steady. Domestic inventory continued the inventory buildup trend this week, with total inventory up 48,000 mt WoW. Overall, the alumina market is still in an inventory buildup cycle, primarily driven by continued supply release coupled with increasing port arrivals and warrant registrations. Looking ahead to next week, as new capacity in Guangxi is further released, supply is expected to maintain growth, inventory is likely to continue accumulating, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

[SMM Update] SHFE data showed that on April 17, the total registered cast aluminum alloy warrants stood at 30,551 mt, an increase of 268 mt from the previous trading day. Specifically, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 1,822 mt (unchanged), Guangdong 11,572 mt (down 31 mt), Jiangsu 3,848 mt (down 31 mt), Zhejiang 8,200 mt (up 30 mt), Chongqing 3,603 mt (unchanged), and Sichuan 1,506 mt (up 300 mt) from the previous trading day.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, on the supply side, some delivery warrants have already begun to flow out during the day, exerting downward pressure on spot premiums. Market concerns over the concentrated release of warrants going forward persist, and suppliers have a strong willingness to sell, putting spot premiums for Shanghai copper under pressure. On the demand side, copper prices saw a slight correction, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the intraday price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong spot premiums continued to rise to around 150 yuan/mt. The strong premiums in Guangdong may provide some support to Shanghai market sentiment, but it is difficult to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern in the short term. Overall, spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels next Monday.

Today, SMM's premium range quote for the SGE Ag(T+D) was TD -10 to +10 yuan/kg, with an average of +0 yuan/kg. The spot market saw relatively high shipments, but overall consumption remained sluggish. In the morning, suppliers offered at TD +0-10 yuan/kg, while downstream purchase willingness was low, with intended prices generally around TD -10 yuan/kg. The price spread between offers and bids was wide, and transaction prices were mainly at parity, with a small volume of national-standard silver transacted at -10 yuan/kg. Traders had low willingness to sell at a discount, opting to consider registering warrants or securing floor prices with banking institutions. Overall trading remained persistently sluggish.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,240.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,295/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to $13,182.5/mt, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at $13,242/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 287,000 lots, a decrease of 2,451 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,350 yuan/mt, rose to 102,510 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to 101,700 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,290 yuan/mt, down 0.09%, with trading volume at 28,500 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, an increase of 820 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

[Short-Term Supply-Demand Resonance, Bullish Trend in Aluminum Prices Continues] Overall, the Middle East negotiation process experienced repeated setbacks, but the supply gap outside China and continued LME inventory drawdown supported LME prices to hold up well. China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels, and attention should be paid to whether a turning point in domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

[SMM Express] SHFE data showed that on April 15, the total registered cast aluminum alloy warrants stood at 30,283 mt, a decrease of 213 mt from the previous trading day. By region, Shanghai registered 1,822 mt (unchanged), Guangdong 11,603 mt (down 183 mt), Jiangsu 3,879 mt (down 30 mt), Zhejiang 8,170 mt (unchanged), Chongqing 3,603 mt (unchanged), and Sichuan 1,206 mt (unchanged) from the previous trading day.