As the global energy transition accelerates, the NEV industry is booming at an unprecedented pace. Behind this green transformation, battery recycling—a critical link tied to resource security, environmental protection, and the sustainable development of industry—has quietly emerged as a new industry worth hundreds of billions. From an “environmental burden” to an “urban mine,” the battery recycling industry is demonstrating unprecedentedly broad prospects. Strong policy support has laid a solid foundation for the development of the battery recycling industry. In February 2025, the Executive Meeting of the State Council reviewed and approved the Action Plan for Improving the Recycling System for NEV Power Batteries, explicitly proposing the improvement of the standards system to achieve standardized, safe, and efficient recycling and utilization of power batteries. More importantly, the Interim Measures for the Administration of the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Retired NEV Power Batteries, which will officially take effect on April 1, 2026, marks a new stage in the law-based and standardized management of power battery recycling and utilization in China. The core provisions of this new regulation, jointly issued by six departments including the MIIT, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, include: Establishing a digital ID system: generating a unique and dynamic digital ID for each power battery pack to enable full life cycle flow monitoring and information-based traceability Implementing the “vehicle-battery integrated retirement” system: retired NEVs must include their power batteries to prevent battery loss Clarifying the responsibilities of all parties: power battery enterprises and NEV producers must establish recycling service outlets and assume fallback responsibility for collection Defining red lines for comprehensive utilization: enterprises engaged in the comprehensive utilization of retired power batteries must complete the relevant procedures in accordance with the law, and such batteries are prohibited from being used in restricted fields such as e-bikes Battery recycling is not only an industry, but also a green revolution concerning the sustainable development of humanity. From policy support to technological innovation, and from resource security to industrial upgrading, China’s battery recycling industry is advancing at an unprecedented speed and with unprecedented intensity. As the 14th Five-Year Plan is implemented in greater depth and the “dual carbon” goals continue to advance, this “urban mine” of battery recycling will release enormous economic, environmental, and social value, contributing China’s wisdom and solutions to the global energy transition and the development of the circular economy.

According to industry reports, the Pipestone XL project in Newfoundland, Canada, is advancing its awaruite (Ni₃Fe) nickel-cobalt deposit to supply the North American defense and energy storage sectors. Awaruite, a naturally occurring, sulfur-free magnetic alloy containing approximately 77% nickel, enables the production of a high-grade ~60% nickel concentrate through simple magnetic separation and flotation. This unique metallurgical profile completely bypasses carbon-intensive pyrometallurgical smelting and early hydrometallurgical stages like high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL).

Concluding our series, we shift focus to 2026's emerging NdFeB growth drivers: robotics, low-altitude economy, and electric two-wheelers. While viewed as the "second growth curve," we analyze their actual demand support amidst current macro and industry cycles to determine if they can offset traditional sector slowdowns.

Recent volatility in the Indonesian commodities sector has been driven by mixed signals regarding new fiscal policies. Market participants are currently evaluating the implications of two distinct regulatory mechanisms: a broader windfall tax on bulk commodities like coal, nickel, and a targeted export duty. The conflation of these two policies has generated significant market uncertainty, culminating in a sharp spike in global nickel prices this week. To understand the current market anxiety, which culminated in a sharp spike in global nickel prices this week, it is essential to unpack the timeline of these policy discussions, differentiate the fiscal mechanisms at play, and assess the likelihood of their implementation. Background: From Broad Windfall Deliberations to Targeted Export Tariffs The narrative surrounding new commodity taxes in Indonesia did not emerge overnight; rather, it has evolved through distinct phases of policy signaling. The current policy discourse has evolved in phases. Initial discussions, highlighted by statements from Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto on Mar 13, 2026, focused on the potential implementation of a windfall tax. This broader fiscal measure was aimed at capturing excess margins from exporters of coal, palm oil, and base metals, such as nickel, gold, and copper during periods of elevated global prices, functioning primarily as a macroeconomic revenue-generation tool. However, the conversation shifted dramatically on March 25, 2026. According to Bloomberg, news broke that Indonesia’s President had officially approved an export tax specifically targeting coal and nickel. This headline acted as an immediate catalyst, sending LME and SHFE nickel prices spiking. The confusion currently gripping the market stems from the conflation of these two distinct policy trajectories: the older, revenue-focused windfall tax concept championed by economic ministers, and the newly approved, strategically focused nickel export tax aimed at forcing further downstream industrialization. Analysis & Understanding: The Precedent of the "Windfall Tax" To accurately gauge the impact of these rumors, it is critical to understand that the concept of a "windfall tax" is not entirely unprecedented in Indonesia's regulatory framework, particularly for bulk commodities. There has actually been a windfall tax structure in place previously, though often masked under the nomenclature of progressive royalties and non-tax state revenues (PNBP). For the coal sector, the government already utilizes a tiered royalty system pegged to the Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA) benchmark. As coal prices escalate into higher brackets, the royalty percentage automatically increases, effectively acting as a windfall capture mechanism. Similarly before, the nickel sector utilizes the Domestic Benchmark Price (HPM) and associated royalty structures to adjust to global price rallies. It is crucial to note that the government has previously experimented with specific windfall profit provisions for downstream products, though the regulatory stance has recently hardened. For instance, under Government Regulation (GR) No. 26/2022, a unique windfall profit incentive was applied to nickel matte: when prices exceeded $21,000 per ton, the royalty rate was actually reduced from the standard 2% to 1%. (Old Version) However, this accommodating policy was explicitly abolished under the recent GR No. 19/2025. The removal of this incentive underscores a definitive shift toward more aggressive state revenue capture. Consequently, the recent "windfall tax" rumors primarily concern further tightening these existing brackets or introducing a supplementary surcharge on operating margins above a specific baseline. (New Version) Conversely, the newly approved nickel export tax serves a different primary function. Therefore, it is completely different than the concept of windfall tax. Rather than merely earning from peak profits, an export duty on semi-processed nickel (like NPI, MHP, FeNi, and Nickel Matte) is a structural tool designed to penalize the export of lower-value products. It is the natural continuation of Indonesia’s downstreaming ( hilirisasi ) agenda, intended to force producers to build stainless steel and EV battery precursor plants domestically in Indonesia, rather than shipping intermediate goods to other countries. While a windfall tax fluctuates with market prices, an export tax acts as a permanent structural cost added to the global supply chain. Conclusion: Imminent Implementation Amidst Ongoing Deliberations Despite definitive headlines regarding executive approval and the targeted April 1, 2026 implementation date, the exact implementation details are currently under review by the relevant ministries. Currently, specific details, including exactly how the proposed 5%, 8%, and 11% tiers might translate from coal to specific nickel material classifications (e.g., NPI, MHP, and high-grade matte), must be urgently finalized ahead of the April deadline. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the Ministry of Finance, and the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime and Investment Affairs are working to balance state revenue optimization with the need to maintain the global cost-competitiveness of domestic smelters. This deliberative phase should not be interpreted as a policy reversal. According to SMM's understanding and industry checks, the implementation of these fiscal measures is highly probable. While the exact rollout of tariffs may be structured to mitigate immediate operational shocks to the domestic smelting sector, the fundamental policy direction indicates that the era of tariff-free exports for intermediate nickel products might decisively coming to an end.

In 2026, the correction in lithium carbonate prices drove up lithium battery production costs. Coupled with uncertainties in lithium resources supply, cost pressure across the new energy industry became increasingly prominent. Leveraging the advantages of abundant sodium resources, balanced distribution, and controllable costs, sodium-ion batteries have leapt from being a “backup option” for lithium batteries to a key direction for industry breakthrough...

This week (March 13, 2026–March 19, 2026), multiple enterprises in the solid-state battery sector were active: Dali Times commenced construction of a 2 GWh specialized semi-solid-state battery base; EVE’s Longquan Phase III/IV all-solid-state batteries rolled off the line in Chengdu; Chery released its 600 Wh/kg Rhino all-solid-state battery technology。