[SMM Tin Midday Review: Center of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Moved Lower, Trading Was Slightly Sluggish Amid Structural Divergence in End-Use Demand]

SMM March 12 News: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 160 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 100,595 yuan/mt, down 265 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,475 yuan/mt, down 265 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory had declined sharply for three consecutive days, mainly due to an increase in shipments. Current inventory had fallen by 10kt from the year-to-date high. Although inventory continued to fall today, traders and downstream buyers were markedly less active in restocking than yesterday; however, suppliers were unwilling to cut prices to sell, with significant disagreements between buyers and sellers, resulting in poor overall transactions. Today, purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.4, down 0.11 from the previous trading day, and shipment sentiment was 3.3, down 0.27 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried by logging into the database). Overall, traders and downstream buyers were markedly less active in restocking than yesterday, and spot premiums were unchanged from yesterday.

[Environmental Protection Measures in Northern China Weighed, Overall Trading Was Average This Week]: Spot premiums in Tianjin were flat WoW this week. As of this Friday, in China, standard domestic brands were quoted at discounts of around 50-100 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, high-priced brands at discounts of around 30-60 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, and Tianjin was quoted at a premium of around 10 yuan/mt against Shanghai.

Spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at parity to a premium of 80 yuan/mt against the front-month contract today, with the average premium unchanged from the previous trading day at 40 yuan/mt, and the average transaction price down 155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 100,470 yuan/mt.

[Operating Rates of Galvanising Producers Continued to Increase]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 53, up 13.94 percentage points WoW. Raw material side, zinc prices fluctuated this week, and zinc ingots previously price-fixed by galvanising enterprises arrived one after another, leading to a slight increase in zinc ingot inventory at galvanising enterprises.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Struggled to Break Out of Rangebound Trading, Spot Market Held Prices Steady While Actively Shipping SMM News, March 13: SS futures remained in the doldrums. However, after opening higher in the night session, SS fluctuated downward, with the pace of pullback accelerating further in the afternoon, and closed at 14,190 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by fluctuations in futures, quotations were largely stable, with limited changes during the week. Although the recovery in downstream demand and cargo pick-up of previous orders provided support, and stainless steel social inventory stopped rising and pulled back this week, market expectations remained mediocre, with merchants mainly holding prices steady while actively making shipments. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated stronger. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 stood at 14,275 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 245-445 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi were all basically stable; for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were basically stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted basically stable in Wuxi; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable. Entering the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April,” the stainless steel market ushered in a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually recovering and inquiry and purchase activity having picked up notably recently. However, stainless steel spot prices overall remained basically stable, with no obvious fluctuations. End-user procurement mainly followed rigid demand, and a full-scale peak-season boom had yet to emerge, while wait-and-see sentiment still lingered in the market. On the futures side, affected by Yi...

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Affected by Macro Disturbances, LME Zinc Maintained Wide Swings] LME zinc opened at $3,316/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,331.50/mt, after which prices fell rapidly. It then rose and recovered the losses, but during European trading hours, as bears reduced open interest, LME zinc quickly dipped to $3,284/mt. In the night session, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, LME zinc gradually recouped the losses and returned to fluctuate above the average price line, finally closing down at $3,314.50/mt, down $1/mt, or 0.03%. Trading volume decreased to 82,887 lots, and open interest increased by 527 lots to 217,000 lots.

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Sharply Lower in the Night Session and Remained Rangebound at Low Levels, While Trading in the Spot Market Was Relatively Mediocre]

Silver prices fluctuated rangebound today, while spot market premiums still showed signs of continuing to decline, and downstream transactions were still mainly concluded through substantial bargaining. In Shanghai, mainstream quotations from suppliers of domestic standard silver ingots were tentatively quoted at premiums of 600-700 yuan/kg against TD, but due to increased supply, weakening downstream consumption, and substantial bargaining, actual transaction premiums fell to 500 yuan/kg. In Shenzhen, premiums of domestic standard small silver ingots against TD dropped to 400 yuan/kg, while premiums for large ingots declined to 300-400 yuan/kg. As suppliers increased sell-offs and shipped more cargo to the Shanghai market, transaction prices in Shanghai were slightly dragged lower as a result. Some downstream consumers suspended purchases after completing post-holiday restocking, and buyers still largely stayed on the sidelines today, continuing to buy the dip through substantial bargaining. Suppliers gradually ended their efforts to hold prices firm and withhold sales, and successively adjusted prices to make shipments, while spot market transactions remained relatively sluggish.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of China Customs (GACC), China's total iron ore imports for January and February 2023 reached 211 million tonnes, with a cumulative value of approximately US$9.89 billion. The average import price across these two months was US$101.3 per tonne , a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. An analysis by month shows January imports totalled 110.35 million tonnes, representing a 7.77% decrease from the previous month but a 13.59% increase year-on-year. February imports were 99.67 million tonnes , down 9.68% month-on-month, yet showing a 5.80% increase year-on-year. The decline in import volumes is primarily attributed to frequent weather-related disruptions in key supplying nations like Australia and Brazil, which adversely affected mine-to-port rail networks and port loading operations, causing a temporary downturn in overseas shipments. Concurrently, operational activity at major domestic ports slowed during the Chinese New Year holiday, impacting the efficiency of vessel unloading, cargo warehousing, and customs clearance procedures. These combined factors contributed to the reduction in import scale during the first two months of 2023. Looking ahead to March, iron ore imports are forecast to experience a month-on-month rebound. This is anticipated due to shipping disruptions in the Middle East, caused by a partial blockade in the Strait of Hormuz , which may lead some vessels to be rerouted to China , thereby boosting import figures. Furthermore, weather-related logistical constraints are expected to ease, allowing shipments from producing countries to normalise. Finally, as March marks the end of the first quarter , some mining companies may increase their shipment volumes to meet quarterly targets, which would further support a recovery in import levels.