【SMM Steel】The Middle East conflict is disrupting shipping routes, causing longer delivery times and higher costs for EU steel imports. Buyers expect cargoes to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 2-4 weeks and raising freight costs. Uncertainty is limiting orders. The delays come as the EU plans tighter import quotas from July 2026. Higher energy and freight costs may push up steel prices.

[SMM Steel] Mexico's Ministry of Economy (SE) has initiated an administrative review of anti-dumping (AD) duties on prestressed steel imports from China, Spain, and Portugal. Current duties, including US$1.02/kg for Chinese imports, remain in effect to protect domestic production from potential injury.

This week, ferrous metals held up well within a narrow range. Over the weekend, turmoil in the Middle East and the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered wild swings in the international energy market, sending energy and precious metals sharply higher, while ferrous metals—except coking coal and coke—mostly retreated after rapid rise following the open; mid-week, although there were bullish expectations around the Two Sessions, no new news emerged, the steel market remained relatively stable, and the pattern of raw materials outperforming finished steel products continued; in the latter half of the week, the Two Sessions’ macro conclusions met expectations, but had already been priced in by futures earlier, and high-level fluctuations in international oil prices continued to support raw materials, in turn pushing ferrous metals to edge higher on a steady footing. In the spot market, in the second week after the holiday, the market gradually resumed work and resumed production, but with insufficient momentum from futures, overall willingness to purchase was not high, and transactions were mainly concluded at low prices......

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,200-10,300 yuan/mt; stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same grade in Foshan rose, with a price range of 9,900-10,200 yuan/mt. From the perspective of raw material-side production costs, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely with stainless steel scrap was about 14,127.63 yuan/mt, while the production cost using only high-grade NPI was 14,789.63 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices strengthened and moved higher, mainly supported by the recovery in restarts, catch-up demand, and cost advantages. Entering March, the market fully resumed operations, yard shipments accelerated, and downstream inquiries and transactions increased significantly, lifting trading activity and laying the groundwork for prices to rise. On the futures and raw material side, SS futures saw a pause in gains this week, stainless steel spot prices posted limited increases, the pace of high-grade NPI price hikes slowed, and heat in the raw material market cooled. However, stainless steel scrap had previously been affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, and prices failed to keep pace; this week’s catch-up rally became the key driver of the price strength. In terms of supporting factors, stainless steel mills’ March production schedules rose sharply, boosting stainless steel scrap procurement demand; coupled with expectations for the “Golden March and Silver April” peak season, bullish sentiment was strong. Meanwhile, stainless steel scrap’s economic advantages over high-grade NPI were evident, lifting substitution demand and further supporting prices. However, downstream end-use demand recovered slowly, and stainless steel finished product inventory remained high, suppressing upward movement in finished product prices and transmitting to the stainless steel scrap market, thereby limiting the increase. Overall, the market this week showed a pattern of “restart recovery, increased transactions, and a catch-up price rise.” In the short term, there was still upward momentum, but gains were limited; over the longer term, attention should be paid to the pace of end-use demand recovery.

SMM reported on March 5 that this week, total inventory across the two major stainless steel markets of Wuxi and Foshan showed a slight upward trend, rising from 1.0161 million mt on February 26, 2026 to 1.0164 million mt on March 5, 2026, up 0.3% WoW. This week, stainless steel social inventory increased slightly, remaining at a high level above 1 million mt. The market had entered the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April.” Although downstream end-users had gradually resumed work and production, the pace of actual demand release was slow, and the strength of the recovery still needed to be verified. SS futures lacked momentum for further upside and fluctuated within the week, making it difficult for spot prices to improve. Wait-and-see sentiment strengthened, and overall confidence pulled back compared with the previous period. Supply side, stainless steel mills’ expected planned production for March had increased significantly, and supply pressure was gradually emerging. Although supply and demand had yet to achieve a good match and the effectiveness of social inventory drawdown remained uncertain, stainless steel currently had strong cost support. Nickel ore-related news continued to ferment and provided a floor, while steel mills were proactive in maintaining prices and boosting shipments, fully aligning with procurement demand after downstream resumption of work, effectively curbing further inventory buildup. Overall, this week’s inventory trend was mainly driven by factors including a slower-than-expected downstream recovery, increased supply expectations, a pullback in market confidence, and steel mills’ active shipments. Although there was still a short-term risk of inventory buildup, supported by strong cost-side support and steel mills’ proactive adjustments, stainless steel social inventory was expected to remain broadly stable. Whether inventories can be effectively drawn down going forward will still hinge on the actual pace of downstream demand recovery.

A blocked Strait of Hormuz would upend global methanol supplies, hammer conventional methanol markets, and elevate green methanol’s strategic value, pushing China to diversify imports and boost green methanol for supply security.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Trade Rangebound; Bullish Sentiment for Spot Stainless Steel Weakens SMM News on March 6: SS futures showed a pattern of holding up well. SS moved in the doldrums during the night session, but after the daytime session opened, it gradually strengthened and probed higher, finally closing at 14,115 yuan/mt. In the spot market, spot quotes pulled back in the morning under the influence of weaker SS performance in the night session; however, as futures fluctuated upward, spot quotes also followed with some gains, and the overall adjustment was limited. Recently, affected by factors such as expectations for a high stainless steel production schedule in March, a slowdown in the rise of high-grade NPI prices, and a slow recovery in downstream demand, traders’ earlier bullish expectations have weakened somewhat, and their willingness to make shipments has increased. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated upward and strengthened. At 10:15 a.m., SS2604 was quoted at 14,240 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 280-480 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally steady; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell 25 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan was steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were steady; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted steady; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were steady. As the market enters the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April,” the stainless steel market is seeing a window for demand recovery. Downstream demand has gradually resumed work and production after the Chinese New Year holiday, and demand is showing a gradual recovery trend. However, although transactions have improved compared with the earlier period, the bustling peak-season momentum has yet to emerge. End-user procurement is mainly driven by rigid demand, with stockpiling…

[Frequent Supply Disruptions; Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC for SMM Zn50 domestic remained flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell by $8.37/dmt MoM to $15.38/dmt...

[Prices Lack Upward Momentum; Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices May Temporarily Hold Steady Next Week] Steel mill production remained stable, with no significant production cuts or expansion. After the holiday, supplies gradually arrived in the market, and market supply was ample, with no pressure from resource shortages for the time being. Meanwhile, grain-oriented silicon steel has relatively high barriers in production processes, making supply-side rigidity relatively strong; coupled with the benchmark pricing role of leading steel mills, downside room for prices is limited.

[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, losses at coke producers have widened, dampening their production incentives. Coke supply is expected to tighten slightly, but coke producers are seeing inventory buildup, and supply remains loose for now. Demand side, the Two Sessions have already convened, and some steel mills have already carried out blast furnace maintenance; the daily average hot metal output has declined, weakening rigid demand for coke. Meanwhile, after the first round of coke price cuts, steel mill profits remain poor, and they still intend to push for lower prices. Overall, the coke market may be generally stable with slight fall and in the doldrums; after the first round of proposed cuts, expectations remain for a second round of price cuts.