SMM News, March 16: Data Brief: As of Monday, March 16, copper inventories in SMM’s major regions nationwide fell 5.46% WoW from the previous Monday, with destocking seen across all regions. Specifically, in Shanghai, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies were normal, while downstream consumption continued to recover, leading to some inventory drawdown; in Jiangsu, inventory declined slightly, supported by recovering downstream consumption; in Guangdong, consumption continued to improve, arrivals remained normal, and inventories likewise maintained a destocking trend. Looking ahead, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies are expected to remain stable, with overall supply stabilizing; demand side, the pullback in copper prices effectively stimulated downstream consumption, and rigid demand is gradually being released. According to the survey, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to rise to 79.19% this week, up 6.27 percentage points WoW. Taking both supply and demand into account, the market is currently showing a pattern of “stabilizing supply and recovering consumption,” and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.

The 2026 SMM (3rd) Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit & Battery Recycling Forum will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from May 11–12, 2026. The summit aims to bring together leading global enterprises, research institutions, industry experts, and policymakers in the fields of renewable metals and battery recycling.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $12,871/mt. It hit a high of $12,942/mt amid wide swings early in the session, after which the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and fell to $12,733/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,735.5/mt, down 1.64%. Trading volume reached 22,600 lots, and open interest stood at 307,000 lots, an increase of 3,144 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears adding positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,520 yuan/mt and climbed to 100,760 yuan/mt early in the session. Afterwards, the center of copper prices fluctuated downward and touched a low of 99,710 yuan/mt near the close, with a decline of 0.86%. Trading volume reached 38,900 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, a decrease of 930 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.

SMM, March 13: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at around 16,550 yuan/mt. In early trading, lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,195 yuan/mt, and then rebounded slightly on buying support, though the rebound was limited. SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,280-16,370 yuan/mt range and finally closed at 16,315 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, down 240 yuan/mt, or 1.45%. Recently, factors such as a strong US dollar driven by geopolitical tensions and stagflation concerns have weighed on lead prices. Meanwhile, losses at secondary lead smelters widened, with some enterprises suspending shipments or raising premiums on quotes; premiums for cargoes self-picked up from production sites at primary lead smelters remained firm, and proactive supply-side tightening underpinned spot prices. At present, lead prices are dominated by bears and are expected to remain in the doldrums. Subsequent lead price trends should focus on changes in downstream buying sentiment. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

We all know the relationship between Gold and US Dollars in the financial markets. When the USD rises, gold tends to fall and vice versa. It sounds simple to you, right? But understanding why this happens, and how to actually trade it like a pro trader, takes more than knowing that the pattern exists.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially quote against the 2604 contract. In terms of market structure, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts was in the range of 110 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and with the import window wide open, expectations for continued inflows of cargo from outside China strengthened, putting spot premiums under pressure. Demand side, although copper prices pulled back again below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises did not improve significantly. Intraday trading was light on both buying and selling sides, and at current price levels, end-users still maintained wait-and-see sentiment toward the subsequent price trend, with procurement turning cautious. Supply side, SMM recorded social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt from the previous period, but the absolute level remained high. Coupled with stronger import expectations, overall supply pressure still persisted. Overall, with the contract rollover completed and import expectations strengthening, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, and discounts may widen further.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, as the Two Sessions ended, coke producers previously subject to production restrictions gradually resumed production. With losses per mt of coke remaining within an acceptable range, production enthusiasm was moderate, and coke supply increased steadily. On the demand side, as the country's important meetings ended, steel mills previously subject to production restrictions were expected to resume production, leading to some increase in coke demand. However, as no clearly positive policies emerged from the Two Sessions, market wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and steel mills maintained a cautious attitude toward coke, mainly purchasing as needed. In summary, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

[SMM Daily Review: Cost Support Met Cooling Downstream Prices, Putting Pressure on High-Grade NPI Prices] March 16 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.89, down 0.03 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.63, down 0.09 MoM.

Ouyang Minggao pointed out that large-scale mass production of all-solid-state batteries will still require 3–5 years, with test vehicles expected to appear by the end of 2026. Sulphide electrolyte has fallen from 20 million/mt to the million-level range. However, he stressed that the technical difficulty is extremely high and advised consumers that they “need not wait,” as LFP batteries remain the “ballast stone” at present.

SMM Nickel News, March 16: Macro and Market News: (1) The financial statistics report for February released by the central bank showed that at month-end February, broad money (M2) balance stood at 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; cumulative aggregate social financing for the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans in the first two months increased by 5.61 trillion yuan; the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 345.72 trillion yuan, up 8.8% YoY; and the month-end RMB deposit balance was 337.94 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. (2) The central bank said in its tender announcement for open-market outright reverse repo operations that on March 16, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through a fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, and multiple-price allocation method, with a tenor of six months (182 days). Spot Market: On March 16, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 2,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,700 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream branded electrodeposited nickel was at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fell sharply intraday and closed the morning session at 135,990 yuan/mt, down 1.83%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the industry-level support logic has not changed, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products remain. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.