Against the backdrop of accelerating global energy transition and digital economy development, silver—a strategic metal possessing both industrial and financial attributes—is witnessing profound transformation across its industry chain. On one hand, emerging sectors such as PV, NEV, and 5G communications are driving continuously climbing demand for silver, propelling the industry toward higher value-added and greener upgrades; on the other hand, resource constraints, technological barriers, and market fluctuations impose higher requirements on industry chain resilience, urgently necessitating innovation-driven coordinated development across the entire chain. Dual Drivers of Policy and Market Under China's "dual carbon" goals and the global ESG investment wave, the silver industry faces pressing demands for green production, circular utilization, and low-carbon technologies. The NDRC's "14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development" explicitly calls for strengthening the circular utilization of precious metal resources, while international silver price fluctuations and geopolitical risks are compelling enterprises to enhance supply chain autonomy and controllability. Against this backdrop, the Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference has emerged, aiming to build a collaborative platform integrating government, industry, academia, research, and end-use applications, to address industry pain points, and to lead the industry toward high-end, intelligent, and internationalized advancement. Innovation Demands and Industry Pain Points Technological Breakthroughs: Silver purification processes, nano-silver material applications, and scrap recycling technologies urgently require breakthroughs to meet the demand for high-purity, low-cost silver in emerging fields such as PV silver paste and flexible electronics. Industry Chain Coordination: Information barriers exist across mining, smelting and processing, and end-use applications segments, requiring digital tools to achieve optimized resource allocation and risk sharing. Green Transformation: Traditional smelting processes are energy-intensive and highly polluting, necessitating the promotion of clean production technologies and circular economy models in response to global carbon neutrality commitments. Market Expansion: Silver's application potential in frontier fields such as hydrogen energy and quantum computing has yet to be fully explored, requiring strengthened cross-industry cooperation and standards development. Conference Objectives and Value Themed "Silver Chain Innovation · Intelligent Creation for the Future," this conference brings together global silver industry chain leaders, research institutions, financial institutions, and policymakers for in-depth dialogue around three core topics: technological R&D, supply chain optimization, and market expansion. Through releasing industry white papers, establishing innovation alliances, and signing major projects, the conference is expected to drive the silver industry's transformation from "resource dependence" to "technology leadership," providing critical material support for the global energy revolution and digital economy. Shanxi Jinwu Energy Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event, joining industry peers to explore industry development trends and work together to propel the silver industry to new heights. Click to register immediately, and join us in witnessing and participating in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, creating a brilliant new chapter together! Shanxi Jinwu Energy Co., Ltd. is a production-oriented enterprise integrating R&D, production, sales, and services, with an annual production capacity of 200kt of high-end foundry briquette coal (briquette coke) and 200kt of carbon products (carburizers). Located in Huayu Town, Jishan County, Shanxi Province, the company was established in October 2005, with a registered capital of 68 million yuan, covering an area of over 300 mu, and employing more than 500 people. Over the years, the company has adhered to the principle and business philosophy of "products reflect character, quality is life, aligning with the world, and creating international brands," and has successively obtained 6 national invention patents and 31 utility model patents, passed ISO triple system certification, and is a Shanxi Province high-tech new-type enterprise, a "single champion in high-end foundry briquette coal" enterprise, and a national-level specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative "Little Giant" enterprise. Foundry briquette coal (briquette coke) is a national " 12th Five-Year Plan" and "13th Five-Year Plan " encouraged project. This technology is a domestic first and world-leading, and fully aligns with the "Six New " strategy currently proposed by the state, serving as a typical representative of carbon-based new materials. After more than a decade of dedicated R&D, the company broke through technical bottlenecks and successfully developed the environmentally friendly Ash-8 and Ash-10-series products, which are "Jinwu Brand" high-end foundry briquette coal (briquette coke) produced with anthracite as the main raw material . This product features high fixed carbon, high strength, high calorific value, excellent hot metal carburizing effect, and high coke reactivity strength. The products have long been leading both international and Chinese markets. Internationally, the products are exported to Germany, Japan, South Korea, and other countries, and the company is a long-term supplier to world-renowned enterprises such as Toyota and Hyundai. Domestic sales cover 18 provinces and cities, and the company is a strategic partner of well-known enterprises such as Meide Group, LONGi Group, Binglun Group, and Sanhuan Group. "Jinwu Brand" foundry briquette coal (briquette coke) has become an essential raw material for high-end equipment manufacturing and was awarded the honorary title of "Quality Foundry Material" by the China Foundry Association. "Jinwu Brand " carburizer is produced using high-quality anthracite and petroleum coke as the main raw materials. Carburizers can be used in steel mills and foundries to adjust the carbon and oxygen content of molten steel, modifying its rigidity and toughness, thereby improving the nucleation capacity of molten steel and the intrinsic quality of steel billets. It is an indispensable auxiliary additive for producing high-quality steel and castings. The products have long been leading both international and Chinese markets. Internationally, products are exported to Japan, South Korea, and various Southeast Asian countries; domestically, the sales network covers more than 20 provinces and cities, with partner steel enterprises including Zhejiang Tsingshan Steel, Jiangsu Binxin Steel, Xuzhou Steel, Jinnan Steel, and other well-known steel enterprises. Contact Information 15582980888 15333598563 Long press to scan the code and register now 2026 SMM (7th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference

Against the backdrop of accelerating global energy transition and digital economy development, silver—a strategic metal possessing both industrial and financial attributes—is witnessing profound transformation across its industry chain. On one hand, emerging sectors such as PV, NEV, and 5G communications are driving continuously climbing demand for silver, propelling the industry toward higher value-added and greener upgrades; on the other hand, resource constraints, technological barriers, and market fluctuations are imposing higher demands on industry chain resilience, urgently requiring innovation-driven coordinated development across the entire chain. Dual Drivers of Policy and Market Under China's "dual carbon" goals and the global ESG investment wave, the silver industry faces pressing needs for green production, circular utilization, and low-carbon technologies. The NDRC's "14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development" explicitly calls for strengthening the circular utilization of precious metal resources, while international silver price fluctuations and geopolitical risks are compelling enterprises to enhance supply chain autonomy and controllability. Against this backdrop, the Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference has emerged, aiming to build a collaborative platform integrating government, industry, academia, research, and end-use applications, to address industry pain points, and to lead the industry toward high-end, intelligent, and internationalized advancement. Innovation Needs and Industry Pain Points Technological Breakthroughs: Silver purification processes, nano-silver material applications, and scrap recycling technologies urgently need breakthroughs to meet the demand for high-purity, low-cost silver in emerging fields such as PV silver paste and flexible electronics. Industry Chain Coordination: Information barriers exist across mining, smelting and processing, and end-use applications segments, requiring digital tools to achieve optimized resource allocation and risk sharing. Green Transformation: Traditional smelting processes are energy-intensive and highly polluting, necessitating the promotion of clean production technologies and circular economy models in response to global carbon neutrality commitments. Market Expansion: Silver's application potential in frontier fields such as hydrogen energy and quantum computing has yet to be fully explored, requiring strengthened cross-industry collaboration and standard-setting. Conference Objectives and Value Themed "Silver Chain Innovation · Intelligent Creation for the Future," this conference brings together global silver industry chain leaders, research institutions, financial institutions, and policymakers for in-depth dialogue around three core topics: technological R&D, supply chain optimization, and market expansion. Through releasing industry white papers, establishing innovation alliances, and signing major projects, the conference aims to drive the silver industry's transformation from "resource dependence" to "technology leadership," providing critical material support for the global energy revolution and digital economy. IKOI S.p.A will attend this grand event to discuss industry development trends with industry peers and jointly propel the silver industry to new heights. Click to register now. Join us to witness and participate in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and together create a brilliant new chapter! IKOI, established in 1977, is a global leader in pyrometallurgical processes for precious metal refineries, mints, and jewelry markets. Currently, it has 3 major product lines: COMPACT integrated fully automatic gold and silver ingot casting systems, FCC FLAMELESS CASTING CHAMBER® fully automatic delivery bar systems, and the acid-free separation technology ALS system that physically separates gold and silver. IKOI's vision is to create safe, efficient, and green precious metal processing methods. IKOI's mission is to bring innovative and sustainable technologies to the precious metal industry. Contact Information Ni Yong 187 0185 9684 Long press to scan the QR code to register now 2026 SMM (7th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference

Against the backdrop of the global energy transition and the accelerating development of the digital economy, silver—a strategic metal with both industrial and financial attributes—is undergoing profound transformation across its industry chain. On one hand, demand for silver from emerging sectors such as PV, NEVs, and 5G communications continues to climb, driving the industry toward higher value-added and greener development. On the other hand, resource constraints, technological barriers, and market fluctuations impose higher demands on industry chain resilience, urgently requiring innovation-driven coordinated development across the entire chain. Dual Drivers of Policy and Market Under China's "dual carbon" goals and the global ESG investment wave, the silver industry faces pressing needs for green production, recycling, and low-carbon technologies. The NDRC's "14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development" explicitly calls for strengthening the recycling of precious metal resources, while international silver price fluctuations and geopolitical risks are compelling enterprises to enhance supply chain autonomy and controllability. Against this backdrop, the Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference has emerged, aiming to build a collaborative platform integrating government, industry, academia, research, and end-use applications, to address industry pain points, and to lead the industry toward high-end, intelligent, and internationalized development. Innovation Needs and Industry Pain Points Technological Breakthroughs: Silver purification processes, nano-silver material applications, and scrap recycling technologies urgently need breakthroughs to meet the demand for high-purity, low-cost silver in emerging fields such as PV silver paste and flexible electronics. Industry Chain Coordination: Information barriers exist across mining, smelting and processing, and end-use application segments, requiring digital tools to achieve optimized resource allocation and risk sharing. Green Transformation: Traditional smelting processes are energy-intensive and highly polluting, necessitating the promotion of clean production technologies and circular economy models in response to global carbon neutrality commitments. Market Expansion: Silver's application potential in frontier fields such as hydrogen energy and quantum computing has yet to be fully explored, requiring strengthened cross-industry collaboration and standards development. Conference Objectives and Value Themed "Silver Chain Innovation · Intelligent Creation for the Future," this conference brings together global silver industry chain leaders, research institutions, financial institutions, and policymakers for in-depth dialogue on three core topics: technological R&D, supply chain optimization, and market expansion. Through the release of an industry white paper, the establishment of an innovation alliance, and the signing of major projects, the conference aims to drive the silver industry's transformation from "resource dependence" to "technology leadership," providing critical material support for the global energy revolution and digital economy. Quanda New Materials (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. / Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event to discuss industry development trends with industry peers and jointly propel the silver industry to new heights. Click to register now. Join us in witnessing and participating in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and together create a brilliant new chapter! Quanda New Materials (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. was founded in December 2023 by Mr. Chen Yongda, who has over twenty years of experience in the silver industry, building upon his existing silver distribution business to align with the major trend of silver consumption upgrading in the new era. With a registered capital of 15 million yuan, the company is located in the scenic Xiangshan Chemical Economic and Technological Development Zone in Ningbo. It is a fully automated factory enterprise specializing in the production of silver nitrate using silver as the primary raw material, with a designed capacity of 5,000 mt/year, and is a key supported enterprise of the Xiangshan Chemical Economic and Technological Development Zone in Ningbo. The company boasts strong technical capabilities and an experienced professional team, with advanced production processes and equipment. Relying on five management systems, it maintains strict quality detection procedures and has established an internal R&D center staffed with dozens of mid-to-senior-level professional and technical personnel. The company's product quality is consistently among the leading levels in the domestic peer industry, with products widely applied in military enterprises, the electronics industry, the PV industry, aerospace, and other fields. We are committed to providing clients with more value-added services through quality products, efficient services, and reasonable prices. Contact Information Ms. Shi 13566055239 Address: No. 52 Wentao Road, (Baiyanshan) Park, Xiangshan County, Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. is an innovative modern commercial distribution enterprise primarily engaged in the supply of precious metal silver raw materials in China and customized silver crafts services. It is a standing council member of the China General Chamber of Commerce and a vice president unit of the Gold and Silver Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA). Since its establishment and operation, the company has consistently adhered to the business philosophy of "being down-to-earth, operating with integrity, and achieving mutual benefit." It upholds the business cooperation principle of "creating value together, sharing results together, and winning the future together." After years of development and growth, the company has established long-term and stable cooperative relationships with multiple well-known silver mine enterprises in China. Its supply and sales channels have become stable, and it has selected a group of strategic partners with strength, credibility, quality, and service orientation. It has cultivated a dedicated, responsible, pragmatic, and efficient business team, providing a strong guarantee for the company's steady and high-quality development. Its industry reputation, market influence, and corporate soft power are all gradually strengthening. Its spot silver trading volume has been at the industry-leading level for consecutive years. A modern commercial distribution enterprise with a maturing management mechanism is emerging. Looking ahead, Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. is expected to align with the major trend of silver consumption upgrading in the new era, proactively innovate and adapt, employ flexible and elastic trading models, adopt a strict risk control system, and leverage timely and efficient services. The company will strive to anticipate clients' needs and fulfill their requirements, endeavoring to provide clients with diversified and more value-added services. As the ancients said, " When one calls with the wind at his back, his voice is no louder, yet it is heard more clearly. Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. will stay true to its original mission of serving the National Silver Enterprise Annual Conference. On the road ahead, it will willingly serve as a practitioner of honest and trustworthy trading in the silver industry market, a driver of integrated coexistence and win-win cooperation among enterprises, and a contributor to the steady, prosperous, and sustainable development of the industry. Contact Information Mr. Yao 13817213537 Tel: 0574-88053076 Fax: 0574-88053796 Address: Room 151, Building 22, No. 818 Qiming Road, Yinzhou District, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province Press and hold to scan the QR code to register now 2026 SMM (7th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference

This week, the price spread between SGE TD prices and SHFE August contract mostly ranged from 30-50 yuan/kg. As of Thursday, mainstream quotations for national-standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market maintained a slight discount against TD, with most transaction quotations widening to a discount of 40-20 yuan/kg against SGE TD, skewing toward the lower end. Downstream consumption recovered slightly following the sharp drop in silver prices at the beginning of the week, but demand quickly faded as prices rebounded subsequently, with downstream buyers generally maintaining a strong wait-and-see sentiment. A few non-delivery brands in the Shenzhen area continued to offer significant discounts, persistently impacting spot market prices in Shanghai. Some suppliers became less willing to offer quotes as spot market price discounts continued to widen, leading to a larger price spread between high and low quotations, and the overall spot market remained sluggish. Inventory side, the decline in silver prices did not significantly boost downstream consumption. Some downstream enterprises bought the dip to replenish safety inventory levels before quickly resuming a wait-and-see stance, and social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to accumulate slightly.

May 20, 2026 At first glance, the price of silver appears to be stuck in a rut, with a sustained breakout above stubborn resistance levels still a long way off. But this calm is deceptive: according to experts, an environment is brewing beneath the surface of the financial system that could provide precious metals with massive tailwinds in the coming quarters. While stock markets near record highs give many investors a false sense of security, systemic risks are growing. This opens up an exciting prospect for commodity investors: The signs of a major shift in capital—away from overvalued growth stocks and toward tangible assets—are becoming increasingly evident. Between inflationary pressure and tight supply A key driver of this scenario is persistent inflation. Geopolitical tensions and oil prices above $100 per barrel are fueling inflation and limiting central banks’ room to maneuver. Even with a weakening economy, an aggressive interest rate cut policy is nearly impossible under these conditions. For the silver market, this is a double catalyst: On the one hand, high energy costs are driving up mining operators’ expenses, which makes production more expensive and constricts supply. On the other hand, in an inflationary, uncertain environment, the appeal of real assets—which cannot be multiplied at will—is growing. The interest rate trap for tech stocks as a catalyst However, analysts see the real powder keg in the bond markets. Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds with yields above 5 percent are increasingly becoming a threat to highly valued tech stocks. Their enormous market capitalizations are heavily based on profits that lie far in the future. If interest rates remain persistently high, this valuation logic will deteriorate drastically. This is precisely where experts see the trigger for the so-called “great rotation”: as soon as capital is withdrawn from highly valued tech stocks, it must find new investment targets. Commodities, precious metals, and domestic producers would be the primary beneficiaries of this shift. Future Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a balancing act: He must stabilize the banking system while simultaneously withdrawing liquidity from the market to reduce the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet—a scenario that traditionally boosts physical silver and gold. Systemic risks bring physical assets into focus In addition to monetary policy, a growing loss of confidence in traditional financial assets supports the thesis of the precious metals bulls. High interest rates are putting massive pressure on highly indebted companies and the private credit sector. When stocks and bonds lose stability and the banking system appears more fragile, investors seek independence. In a highly leveraged environment, gold and silver offer precisely the advantage of not being dependent on the creditworthiness of third parties. International currency concerns also underpin this trend. India’s recent attempts to curb precious metal imports are a clear symptom of global anxiety about currency stability and the desire to preserve capital. Conclusion : The silver price is still in a consolidation phase. But if inflationary pressures, credit risks, and geopolitical tensions continue to intensify, the current market is not the end of the line, but rather the foundation for a revaluation, according to market experts. The looming rotation away from tech stocks toward real assets could be exactly the spark that catapults the silver price into a dynamic upward trend. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silber-vor-der-grossen-rotation-warum-der-scheinbare-stillstand-truegt

[Price Review] Silver fell sharply at the beginning of this week, mainly due to repeated Middle East geopolitical tensions with slow progress in US-Iran negotiations, critically low global crude oil inventories driving oil prices higher, combined with rising interest rate hike expectations and rising US Treasury yields, which continued to weigh on precious metals valuations. On Wednesday evening, as US-Iran tensions eased somewhat, oil prices declined while medium- and long-term US Treasury yields both pulled back, and precious metals futures rebounded slightly. On the macro front, new Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first public speech maintaining a hawkish stance. Combined with US April non-farm payrolls and CPI both exceeding expectations, interest rate hike expectations continued to rise, with expectations for rate cuts within the year nearly zeroed out. CME Fed Watch showed a 97.3% probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in June and a 2.7% probability of a rate cut; a 72.7% probability of rates remaining unchanged from current levels in September, a 2% probability of a rate cut, and a 25.4% probability of a rate hike. Industrial demand side, at the beginning of the week, downstream consumption recovered slightly as silver prices declined, but demand quickly faded as prices rebounded. Some suppliers also showed weak willingness to offer due to continuously widening transaction discounts, with the price spread between high and low offers widening. The silver spot market remained generally low in activity, and inventory continued to increase slightly. Gold/silver ratio, as of May 20, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to 59x, widening notably WoW. [Key Data] Bearish New Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first speech on May 15 with an extremely hawkish tone, explicitly stating there was no reason for rate cuts in the near term and not ruling out the possibility of resuming rate hikes. April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY (the highest since May 2023), core CPI at 2.8% (the highest since September 2025), and PPI at 6.0% YoY (the largest single-month increase in over four years), with inflation stickiness exceeding market expectations. The US dollar index rebounded above 105, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield reached above 5%, significantly raising the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. India raised silver import tariffs from 6% to 15% while tightening import quotas, causing demand from the world's largest physical buyer to drop sharply. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis continued, with a national state of emergency extending through year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production, and May silver production is expected to decline by 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap persisting. US-Iran negotiations saw new positive progress, with both sides engaging in indirect contact through Qatar and reaching preliminary consensus on some core disagreements. [Upcoming Focus] May 22: Waller's inauguration speech; Eurozone and UK May manufacturing PMI preliminary readings May 23: US May Markit manufacturing and services PMI preliminary readings May 27: US 2026 Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate revised value May 28: US April core PCE price index, weekly initial jobless claims Key focus: Waller's official inauguration speech as Fed Chairman, US-Iran negotiation progress [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to remain under pressure with adjustments next week, with core variables being Waller's inauguration speech and US-Iran negotiation progress. The market is closely watching Warsh's debut and four key focus areas: the US Fed's stance on independence, inflation framework reform, interest rate path, and balance sheet reduction pace. Combined with Warsh's previous policy positions, if he insists on prioritizing anti-inflation efforts and releases expectations of retaining the rate hike option, precious metals are expected to face sustained suppression in the short term. On the China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment is generally cautious. The decline in silver's absolute price has not significantly boosted downstream demand, and wait-and-see sentiment remains strong. Social inventory of spot silver ingots has increased slightly, and the market expects spot mainstream transaction discounts to widen slightly to the SGE TD discount range of 50-20 yuan/kg.

Today, SMM's 10:00 AM pricing for the SGE Ag(T+D) was 18,714 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted at TD -40 to -20 yuan/kg, averaging -30 yuan/kg. Silver futures stopped falling and rebounded today, mainly boosted by easing Middle East geopolitical tensions and a sharp drop in oil prices, while medium- and long-term US Treasury yields pulled back. Spot market side, suppliers of national-standard silver ingots had mainstream quotations quoted at premiums of -40 to -20 yuan/kg against TD. Most suppliers in Shanghai reported that downstream consumption was sluggish amid the silver price rebound. Some downstream buyers indicated they had already purchased substantial volumes as silver prices declined in previous days and had no stocking demand for now. Some delivery brand silver ingot suppliers had low willingness to quote due to the widening spot market transaction discounts today, resulting in a wider price spread between high and low quotations. Transaction prices still leaned toward the lower end of mainstream quotations, and bank floor-price purchases once again became the mainstream choice. In Shenzhen, non-delivery brand quotations maintained large discounts deviating from mainstream quotations. Overall, today's silver spot market trading was extremely sluggish.

Today, SMM's pricing for the SGE Ag(T+D) at 10:00 was 18,071 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted at TD -30 to -10 yuan/kg, averaging -20 yuan/kg. Precious metals futures came under pressure again today. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained volatile with slow progress in US-Iran negotiations, global crude oil inventories were critically low with elevated oil prices, and combined with rising rate hike expectations and continued rise in US Treasury yields, these factors weighed on precious metals valuations. Spot market side, mainstream quotations from national-standard silver ingot suppliers were quoted at premiums of -30 to -10 yuan/kg against TD. Most suppliers in Shanghai quoted premiums unchanged from yesterday. Suppliers reported that with silver prices continuing to decline recently, end-use demand rebounded slightly. Some delivery brand silver ingot suppliers raised quotations slightly and held back from selling in a wait-and-see stance, but transactions at higher premiums were difficult, and the transaction center still leaned toward the lower end of quotations. Non-delivery brands in Shenzhen maintained large discounts deviating from mainstream quotations. Investment demand also recovered slightly, with some jewelers reporting more purchases at the Shuibei market. Overall transactions in the silver spot market recovered slightly today.

I. Market Status: Negative TCs Enter Triple Digits, Structural Tightening in Copper Concentrate Supply-Demand As global smelter capacity continues to climb, China, as the world's largest copper smelting country, faces a continuously declining self-sufficiency rate in copper concentrates and rising external dependency. Compounded by geopolitical crises, production cuts by ex-China miners, declining mine grades, and frequent production accidents, the copper industry has undergone a dramatic shift from "tight balance" to "structural deficit." Currently, the global copper concentrate market has fallen into a state of persistently tight supply. On May 15, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) reported -$102.84/dmt, breaking through the -$100/dmt threshold for the first time in history, setting a record negative depth. The payable indicator for 20%-grade domestic trade ore was 97.5%-98.5%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. Supply-side factors driving TCs persistently lower continue to accumulate. 1) Full production resumptions at Freeport's Grasberg mine have fallen short of expectations. According to Freeport's Q1 earnings call, the company plans to achieve full production resumptions by the end of 2027; 2) The Peruvian government signed Emergency Decree No. 003-2026 on May 11, triggering widespread market concerns over the country's energy supply and copper mine output; 3) Geopolitical disruptions—the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven sulfur prices persistently higher, pushing smelting acid prices to rise continuously. With smelting profits climbing, smelters' purchase willingness has increased, driving copper concentrate TCs persistently lower. Customs data showed that China's copper ore and concentrate imports in April 2026 were 2.352 million mt in physical content, down 19.57% YoY; cumulative imports from January to April were 9.915 million mt in physical content, down 0.8% compared to the same period last year. Since December 2020, China's copper concentrate cumulative imports had maintained positive YoY growth; this marks the first decline in over five years. II. Smelter Operating Rates Stay High Contrary to the intuition of "industry-wide losses" implied by deeply negative TCs, operating rates at China's copper smelters have not experienced a cliff-like decline. From a pure smelting perspective, operating willingness and actual profitability across different types of enterprises show significant divergence. Under the extreme environment of deeply negative TCs, the core reason China's copper smelters can maintain relatively resilient operations is that by-product revenues are becoming the key variable determining break-even. Meanwhile, China's copper cathode production declined MoM due to the maintenance peak. SMM data showed that China's copper cathode production in April fell 2.26% MoM. Cumulative copper cathode production from January to April 2026 reached 4.7067 million mt. However, according to SMM, some smelters postponed their maintenance plans or completed crude smelting maintenance ahead of schedule to capture revenue from the by-product sulphuric acid. III. Breakdown of Smelter Profit Sources (i) Sulphuric Acid: The Strongest Profit Contributor at the Current Stage Sulphuric acid is currently the most important by-product profit source for smelters. In pyrometallurgy-based copper cathode production, approximately 3-4 mt of sulphuric acid is produced as a by-product for every 1 mt of copper cathode. As of May 15, the SMM China Copper Smelting Acid Index stood at 1,665 yuan/mt, up 83.7% from the beginning of the year. Sulphuric acid prices currently stay high, meaning sulphuric acid revenue can offset a considerable portion of the revenue loss caused by negative TCs. However, this "sulphuric acid moat" is facing policy challenges. China suspended exports of ordinary industrial sulphuric acid and smelting by-product sulphuric acid starting in May for a period of 8 months. The export ban is not intended to suppress domestic sulphuric acid prices, but rather to prioritize domestic supply for agricultural phosphate fertiliser production and strategic industries such as new energy. Demand side, overall sulphuric acid demand remains tight. Although downstream sectors including phosphate fertiliser, titanium dioxide, and new energy materials saw declining operating rates due to high-priced raw materials, just-in-time procurement still exists. Meanwhile, the supply side is also constrained by concentrated smelter maintenance and high sulphur-based acid production costs, with industry-wide capacity utilization rates at low levels. Cost side, firm sulphur prices provide bottom support for sulphuric acid; supply side, concentrated maintenance limits downside room; demand side, although weak, has not yet formed a substantial enough impact to break down high prices. This means sulphuric acid continues to serve as a profit pillar for smelters. (ii) Precious Metal Recovery: "Incremental Game" Under High Copper Prices In addition, copper concentrates typically contain associated precious metals such as gold and silver, which can be recovered through anode slime processing during smelting. Copper prices are currently at historically high levels, and gold prices also fluctuate at highs, greatly enhancing the economics of precious metal recovery. According to SMM market sources, when gold and silver prices are at high levels, raw materials with impurities rich in gold and silver are assigned extremely high added value. The profit contribution of precious metal recovery to smelters is reflected in: smelters can achieve recovery utilization rates exceeding the gold and silver payable indicators through refined processing, profiting from spot smelting revenue. This portion of revenue is often a significant component of smelters' comprehensive profit structure. However, as gold and silver prices continue to rise, suppliers in the copper concentrates spot trade are simultaneously raising gold and silver payable indicators. The continuously rising precious metal payable indicators and payable benchmark pose an increasingly severe challenge to smelter profitability. IV. Future Trends: Coexistence of Industry Landscape Evolution and Technology Upgrade Requirements However, industry chain profits are irreversibly shifting toward the upstream ore side. Under the medium and long-term landscape of persistently tightening copper concentrates supply and demand, the scarcity value of the resource side is being reassessed by the market. As the copper concentrates supply-demand gap persists over the medium and long-term horizon, and smelters' bargaining power will remain under pressure over the long term. The market is widely concerned about whether TC can quickly pull back in tandem once the continuously rising sulphuric acid prices reach a turning point. Facing the long-term trend of profit squeeze at the mine end and losses in the smelting segment, the future landscape of the copper smelting industry will evolve in the following directions: Direction 1: Integrated consolidation extending upstream. Enterprises with upstream mine assets will have a significant advantage in profitability. Direction 2: Technological upgrades to achieve differentiated competition. Against the backdrop of narrowing profit margins from non-payable metals, the technological barriers of smelters will become increasingly important. Those who can more efficiently extract valuable metals from low-grade ore or complex ore will seize the initiative in the industry reshuffle. Under the extreme environment of persistently negative TCs, sulphuric acid by-product revenue and precious metal recovery are the core profit pillars currently sustaining smelter operations. The supply-demand pattern dictates that the pricing power and profit margins at the mine end will continue to outperform those at the smelting end. The copper smelting industry is transitioning from the traditional model of "earning TCs" to a new competitive landscape of "resource control + technological barriers + integrated operations."

Today, SMM's pricing for SGE Ag(T+D) at 10:00 was 18,792 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted at TD -30 to -10 yuan/kg, averaging -20 yuan/kg. Precious metals futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly today, with the pace still following the back-and-forth of US-Iran tensions and US Treasury yield fluctuations. Spot market side, suppliers of national-standard silver ingots posted mainstream quotations at discounts of 30 yuan/kg to 10 yuan/kg against TD. Most suppliers in Shanghai quoted discounts unchanged from yesterday. Some suppliers reported that heavy trading yesterday afternoon left them with less spot inventory, so they held prices firm; some delivery brand silver ingot suppliers also quoted at parity and held back from selling with a wait-and-see attitude, but transactions were difficult. The market reported that after yesterday's recovery in trading, consumption returned to sluggish levels today, with the transaction center skewing toward the lower end of quotations. Non-delivery brands in Shenzhen maintained large discounts deviating from mainstream quotations, while investment demand recovered somewhat as silver prices declined in recent days. Overall, spot market activity was relatively low today.