SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM May 15 update: Cobalt product prices remained generally stable this week, with only refined cobalt and cobalt chloride prices edging down slightly, though overall fluctuations were relatively small. Among them, cobalt chloride market activity declined further, with scarce inquiries becoming a common feedback... SMM compiled the spot price fluctuations of cobalt products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices edged down 500 yuan/mt this week before stabilizing temporarily. As of May 15, spot refined cobalt was quoted at 421,500-428,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,000 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from 425,500 yuan/mt on May 8. Fundamentals side, supply side, according to SMM, smelter quotes remained stable, while traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to recoup funds. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, strictly controlling raw material inventory levels. Price spread structure side, the metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salts continued to stay at a relatively low level, limiting enterprises' enthusiasm for producing refined cobalt through the re-dissolution process. In the short term, SMM expects refined cobalt prices to continue consolidating, with future upside still dependent on effective price boosts from cobalt salts. Cobalt salts ( and): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, spot cobalt sulphate remained steady at 93,200-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, on the cobalt sulphate supply side this week, mainstream brand quote centers remained in the 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt range. Boosted by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that had previously offered discounts to facilitate shipments raised their quotes slightly, and low-priced cargoes below 90,000 yuan/mt decreased significantly. Demand side, downstream enterprises still focused on digesting earlier inventory, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, and only a few with rigid demand restocked small volumes at lower prices. Notably, some Co3O4 enterprises increased their inquiry frequency recently, with purchasing sentiment showing signs of recovery. Production schedule side, both ternary and LCO enterprises saw restorative MoM growth in May production schedules. It is expected that as downstream restocking demand gradually releases going forward, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased rebound and recovery. : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices edged down by 100 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week and then stabilized. As of May 15, cobalt chloride spot prices stood at 114,000–117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,500 yuan/mt, down 0.09% from May 8. Spot market: According to SMM, cobalt chloride market activity further declined this week, with scarce inquiries being a common feedback. Supply side, some top-tier players notably slowed down their shipment pace recently, with liquidity pressure emerging and quotes slightly softening; meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers had already proactively lowered prices earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and their current quotes have gradually stabilized with extremely limited room for further reduction. Demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, constrained by their own significant shipment pressure, showed weak willingness to purchase cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments, due to continued inventory depletion, recently began to release some restocking intentions. Overall, the market still lacked directional breakthrough momentum. Although sporadic low-price transactions occurred, they were unlikely to substantially impact overall pricing, constrained by enterprises' performance targets, capital conditions, and shipment volumes. Currently, downward momentum is insufficient, and raw material costs provide relatively strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term, with substantive changes potentially awaiting late May . : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, Co3O4 spot prices remained steady at 360,000–367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt. Spot market: According to SMM, the Co3O4 market continued its previously sluggish pattern this week. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but cost support for Co3O4 remained effective, underpinned by periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and firm cobalt chloride prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, restocking in small quantities mainly based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining cathode material purchasing intensity. Given that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring about periodic fluctuations. As for raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices held stable at 25.8–26.2 $/lb this week, temporarily unchanged from May 8. According to SMM, on the supply side, most suppliers held an optimistic outlook for the market, with offers continuing to hold firm above $26/lb. The demand side saw little change; as cobalt salt prices lacked upward momentum, the market maintained only small-volume purchasing as needed, with bid prices fluctuating around approximately $25.8/lb. Regarding shipments, DRC-origin cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transit. Only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings in April, with arrivals expected to begin in June; however, due to tight shipping capacity in Africa, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually become clearer and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. On the news front, on May 13, Hanrui Cobalt released its investor relations activity record. When asked about the company's cobalt powder business, Hanrui Cobalt stated that the company is a major global cobalt powder supplier, ranking among the top three in global market share. It is currently steadily increasing the product share in high-end cemented carbide and battery sectors, with client recognition continuing to strengthen. Cobalt salt gross margins have been continuously improving, and as the market recovers, capacity is released, and the product mix upgrades, profitability is expected to gradually recover. Regarding the outlook for cobalt price trends in 2026, Hanrui Cobalt stated that cobalt price trends are influenced by multiple factors. From a supply and demand perspective, with the implementation of the cobalt export quota system in the DRC, the world's largest cobalt-producing country, cobalt supply has contracted significantly, and overall supply and demand are currently in a tight balance. In addition, on May 12, SMM Vice President Shirley Wang attended the Cobalt Institute annual conference held in Madrid, Spain, and delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market. Regarding cobalt price trends, she stated that although theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, the concentrated arrival of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily reverse into an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices, the limited volume of available cobalt intermediate products in the market—constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace—will provide strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up after several months, but with a clear upward ceiling. She also noted that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP and refined cobalt), and the shipment pace of cobalt intermediate products are the biggest uncertainty factors affecting price trends.

SMM News, May 15: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1.61%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.09%, SHFE lead declined 0.6%, SHFE zinc slipped 0.24%, SHFE tin lost 2.14%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.82%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum alloy futures fell 1.04%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 0.64%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract declined 0.54%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 1.84%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures slipped 0.08%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore dropped 0.8%, rebar declined 0.18%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.43%, and stainless steel lost 1.27%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.29%, and the most-traded coke contract dropped 0.85%. Overseas market base metals: as of 11:46, LME metals declined across the board. LME copper fell 1.46%, LME aluminum dropped 0.82%, LME lead slipped 0.47%, LME zinc declined 0.91%, LME tin lost 0.19%, and LME nickel fell 1.16%. Precious metals: as of 11:46, COMEX gold fell 1.5% and COMEX silver dropped 4.6%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.53%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 7.64%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 5.47%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 4.87%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.88% to 2,519 points. As of 11:46 on May 15, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot prices and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 270 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,750 yuan/mt, down 2,020 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 105,645 yuan/mt, down 2,020 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front China: [Preview: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on May 18 to introduce measures to strengthen and optimize departure tax refund policies and expand inbound consumption] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 3:00 PM on Monday, May 18, 2026. Vice Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping, along with officials from the State Taxation Administration, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, will introduce measures to strengthen and optimize departure tax refund policies and expand inbound consumption, and answer questions from reporters. (Guoxin.com) [CAICT Launches AI Terminal Intelligence Grading Tests to Accelerate Implementation of New National Standards] Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the Ministry of Commerce, and other departments jointly released the national standard series "Artificial Intelligence Terminal Intelligence Grading" (GB/Z 177—2026), which clearly defines the intelligence levels of AI terminals and lays a solid foundation for building a safe, orderly, and efficient AI terminal ecosystem. CAICT is one of the primary drafting organizations of the standard series and possesses comprehensive detection qualifications and technical capabilities in product areas including smartphones, tablets, microcomputers, smart glasses, earphones, speakers, televisions, and automotive cockpits. The first round of AI terminal intelligence grading standard conformity detection has now been launched, and relevant enterprises are welcome to actively participate in testing to jointly promote the implementation of the standards and help enhance product intelligence levels. (CAICT) [PBOC Achieves Zero Injection and Zero Withdrawal for the Day, with a Net Withdrawal of 51 Billion Yuan for the Week] PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, zero injection and zero withdrawal were achieved for the day. This week, PBOC conducted 2.5 billion yuan of reverse repo operations. As 53.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, a net withdrawal of 51 billion yuan was achieved for the week overall. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose 0.17% to 99.04. Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that US retail sales continued to grow in April, but against the backdrop of rapidly rising energy prices, the market believed that consumer data was partly influenced by inflation-driven price increases, and actual consumption momentum may not have been as strong as the headline data suggested. Data showed that US retail sales rose 0.5% MoM in April, the lowest since January, in line with market expectations. The previously reported March figure was revised down to a gain of 1.6%. US consumer confidence had already fallen to a historic low in early May, and the pace of inflation exceeded wage growth for the first time in three years, raising market concerns that consumer spending could slow down significantly going forward. US Fed's Williams: Monetary policy is slightly restrictive. I see no reason to raise or cut interest rates at this point. US Fed Governor Barr: We are not in a recession, but job growth is weak. I have not yet decided what action to take at the June FOMC meeting. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 96.8%, while the cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut was 3.2%. The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged through July was 93.8%, with a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut and a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data) Data: The US May New York Fed Manufacturing Index, US April industrial production MoM, and China's April total electricity consumption YoY will be released today. Also noteworthy: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will deliver opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a discussion; Fed Governor Barr will speak on the balance sheet; the National Energy Administration will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Fed Chairman Powell's term will end; US President Trump will pay a state visit to China. Crude oil: As of 11:46, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.36% and Brent up 1.29%. Middle East conflicts and uncertainty over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz supported oil prices. US President Trump stated: "We don't need to open the Strait of Hormuz," adding that efforts were being made to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for regional countries. India's Ministry of External Affairs confirmed on the 14th that an Indian-flagged merchant vessel was attacked near the Omani coast close to the Strait of Hormuz, but all crew members were safe. The Ministry expressed regret in a statement that day over the continued targeting of merchant ships and seafarers. However, the statement did not mention the specific name of the attacked vessel or the identity of the attackers, only stating that all Indian crew members on board were safe. UK-based Windward maritime analytics company said on social media on the 14th that an Indian-flagged cargo ship sank after a suspected drone attack in Omani waters near the Strait of Hormuz, and all crew members had been successfully rescued. (Xinhua) According to retailers in Delhi on Friday, India raised gasoline and diesel prices by approximately 3 rupees per liter (about $0.03); this was the country's first fuel price increase in four years, aimed at offsetting part of the losses incurred from surging global oil prices. Affected by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and severe shipping disruptions triggered by the Iran war, global oil prices once surged to highs of over $120 per barrel before pulling back to around $100–105 per barrel. Currently, the retail price of diesel in Delhi was 90.67 rupees per liter, and the retail price of gasoline was 97.77 rupees per liter. Three state-owned enterprises — Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation — collectively controlled over 90% of more than 103,000 fuel stations across India, and these three companies typically adjusted diesel and gasoline retail prices in tandem. (Jin10 Data) In addition, Bank of Japan officials stated that prices of a wide range of commodities, including oil and chemical products, rose due to uncertainties surrounding the Middle East conflict and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The YoY increase in wholesale prices in April was the largest since May 2023. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Steel] Iranian steel exports remain active despite ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. Billet exporters continue offering cargoes, but transactions remain unstable due to shipping disruptions, limited vessel availability, and high insurance costs. Alternative logistics channels and Chabahar port continue supporting part of the export flows to China and India. Market participants expect steel trade linked to Hormuz to remain volatile even if diplomatic tensions ease.

The Italian steel distributors association, Assofermet Acciai, reports that the domestic market is facing severe headwinds characterized by sluggish consumption in the construction and manufacturing sectors. High energy costs and geopolitical uncertainties related to shipping disruptions have led to cautious buying behavior, with distributors maintaining lean inventory levels. The association noted that regional price volatility is being exacerbated by the phased implementation of EU trade measures. This weak demand environment in Italy, a key European steel hub, suggests a bearish short-term outlook for flat products, potentially forcing regional mills to consider further production cuts to balance the market.

SMM May 9 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly decline. SHFE copper rose 0.53%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.16%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. SHFE zinc fell 1.19%. SHFE tin fell 1.13%. SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.37%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.24%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 816.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel fell 1.05%, rebar edged up slightly, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.39%, and coke fell 0.43%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance among LME base metals. LME copper rose 1.59%. LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME lead was flat at $1,977.5/mt. LME zinc fell 0.17%. LME tin fell 1.26%. LME nickel fell 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.27%, posting a weekly gain of 1.71%; COMEX silver rose 0.82%, gaining 5.76% for the week. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.21%, with a weekly gain of 3.24%; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.09%, with SHFE silver gaining 11.4% for the week. As of 8:39 AM on May 9, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chaired State Council Executive Meeting: Advancing Local Government Debt Risk Resolution and Strengthening Full-Chain Management of Mineral Resources] State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting on May 9, studying and implementing the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches on the current economic situation and economic work, as well as at the symposium on strengthening basic research. The meeting noted that efforts should be made to align thinking and actions with the CPC Central Committee's scientific assessment of the situation, further bolster confidence, seize opportunities amid changes, drive development through overcoming challenges, consolidate and expand the momentum of steady and positive economic growth, and strive for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Macro policies should focus on being fully and effectively utilized, maintaining proactive implementation, and continuously improving execution efficiency. Strengthening the domestic economic circulation should seek breakthroughs in coordinated supply-demand alignment and integrated upgrading, implementing and improving measures to expand capacity and enhance quality in the service sector, and strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks . Social welfare efforts should focus more on stabilizing employment and ensuring basic needs, and doing well in education, healthcare, childcare, agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Greater efforts and more concrete measures should be taken to strengthen basic research, placing basic research high on the agenda. In light of the country's urgent needs and long-term demands, the main directions and key areas of focus should be identified, investment should be increased through multiple measures, and efforts should be made to foster a sound research ecosystem. Risks and challenges should be addressed effectively, with continued efforts to defuse risks in areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Safety production responsibilities of all parties should be closely monitored and enforced to resolutely prevent major and serious accidents. ( Xinhua News Agency ) [General Administration of Customs: In the first 4 months, China's goods trade imports and exports grew 14.9%, with electromechanical product exports up 17.6%] According to customs statistics, in the first 4 months of 2026, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 16.23 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this, exports totaled 9.33 trillion yuan, up 11.3%; imports totaled 6.9 trillion yuan, up 20%. In April, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 4.38 trillion yuan, up 14.2%. Of this, exports totaled 2.48 trillion yuan, up 9.8%; imports totaled 1.9 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. [Four departments: Exploring direct connection of nuclear power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources to supply computing facilities, and continuously increasing the share of green electricity in computing facilities] The Plan proposes enhancing the diversified power supply capacity of computing facilities. Based on actual conditions such as the scale of computing facility grid connections, power grid voltage levels, power grid new energy penetration rates, power quality requirements, and computing facility business types, standards for energy supply planning and construction of computing facilities are to be established and improved. The use of nuclear power, hydrogen energy, and other energy sources to supply computing facilities through direct connections is to be explored. Computing facilities are encouraged to deploy grid-forming ESS to enhance power supply stability and active support capability for the power system. [Three departments issue the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents] The Cyberspace Administration of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents. The Implementation Opinions specify that the development of AI agents should adhere to the basic principles of safety and controllability, standardization and orderliness, innovation-driven development, and application-led guidance, and put forward measures in four areas: first, consolidating the development foundation by improving the technology base and establishing standards and protocols; second, safeguarding the security baseline by defining product guidelines, preventing security risks, improving the governance system, and strengthening industry self-discipline; third, strengthening application-led guidance by proposing 19 typical application scenarios in areas such as scientific research, industrial development, consumption stimulation, people's well-being, and social governance. Fourth, building an innovative ecosystem, promoting industrial cooperation, and strengthening application promotion. [ China's April Warehousing Index Remained in Expansion Territory, with the Warehousing Industry Continuing a Stable and Positive Trend ] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Warehousing Index today (May 9). The index continued to stay in expansion territory, with the warehousing industry maintaining a stable and positive trend. The April China Warehousing Index was 51%, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months. In terms of sub-indices, the new orders index, facility utilization rate index, and end-of-period inventory index remained in expansion territory, while the average inventory turnover index maintained a relatively high level, indicating steady growth in warehousing business demand, good cargo turnover efficiency, and smooth supply chain connectivity. By category, the peak production and construction season drove a rebound in warehousing demand for bulk commodities such as chemicals, coal, and machinery equipment, while Labour Day holiday stockpiling boosted notable growth in warehousing demand for consumer goods such as food, home appliances, and agricultural by-products. In terms of market expectations, the April business activity expectations index was 55.1%, remaining at a relatively high level, reflecting enterprises' continued optimism. Overall, the warehousing industry operated steadily in April, market vitality continued to be released, and Q2 got off to a good start. (CCTV) [ Shanghai Shipping Exchange: Geopolitical Situation Stabilizing, Freight Rates Rising on Most Routes ] The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) weekly report stated that the current military conflict in the Middle East continued to maintain a ceasefire, with the geopolitical situation relatively stable, though the future situation still faced significant uncertainty. This week, China's export container shipping market remained stable, with freight rates on most routes edging up, driving the composite index higher. On May 8, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index stood at 1954.21 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index declined for two consecutive weeks, down 0.36% for the week. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that April non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, marking the first consecutive growth in nearly a year and the largest two-month gain since 2024, far exceeding the Bloomberg survey median economist forecast of 65,000. March data was also revised up to 185,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations. (Wallstreetcn) "US Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: An increasing number of sell-side institutions and US Fed watchers are removing or delaying interest rate cut expectations from their outlooks, including several forecasters who made adjustments following the release of the April non-farm payrolls data. Currently, half of the respondents believe there will be no interest rate cut this year (given the inertial nature of such forecasts, this camp is likely to continue growing). In addition, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that all rate options are currently on the table, not just rate cuts. At the end of April, the US Fed kept rates unchanged, with three officials opposing language in the statement that hinted the next move could be a rate cut, arguing that the possibility of a rate hike should be preserved. Goolsbee's remarks reflected a shift among US Fed policymakers — moving away from considering near-term rate cuts, primarily because the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war pushed up inflation. He reiterated that both rate cuts and rate hikes are on the table and expressed anxiety about inflation, noting that price pressures exist beyond the energy shock. (Jin10 Data) As consumers worried about the impact of inflation on personal finances and buying conditions, US consumer confidence fell to a new all-time low in recent weeks. University of Michigan data showed that the preliminary May consumer sentiment index fell from 49.8 in April to 48.2. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, a slight pullback MoM; longer-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years stood at 3.4%. As Americans grew anxious about overall living costs, compounded by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, consumer confidence remained subdued. American Automobile Association (AAA) data showed that the average US gasoline price this week surpassed $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022, having risen more than 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated: "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, and about 30% mentioned tariff issues. Overall, consumers still feel the impact of cost pressure, with the primary driver being surging prices at the pump." The preliminary May current conditions index fell to 47.8, a record low; the expectations index rebounded for the first time since January. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and the buying conditions indicator also fell to a five-month low. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include China April CPI YoY, China April PPI YoY, US April existing home sales annualized, Germany April CPI MoM final, Germany May ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May ZEW economic sentiment index, US April NFIB small business confidence index, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY, Japan March trade balance, France Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France April CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone March industrial output MoM, US April PPI YoY, US April PPI MoM, UK Q1 GDP YoY preliminary, UK March three-month GDP MoM, UK March manufacturing output MoM, Canada March wholesale sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales MoM, US April import price index MoM, US May New York Fed manufacturing index, US April industrial output MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), among others. In addition, other events to watch this week included: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan to meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the Bank of Japan Governor, and the Finance Minister; the Bank of Japan's release of the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee attending a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivering opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; US Fed Governor Barr delivering a speech; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a discussion; and the National Energy Administration releasing national electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month. Crude oil: Last Friday overnight, both oil futures moved sideways, with WTI down 0.14% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 7.12% for the week, while Brent fell 7.32%. Middle East conflicts resurfaced, and market concerns over the fragility of ceasefire agreements persisted. According to CMG reporters on May 8, ship-tracking data showed that as of the morning of May 8 local time, no large vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. This reportedly marked the second consecutive day since May 7 with no large commercial ships passing through the strait. (CCTV) US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that US energy enterprises increased oil and natural gas rig counts for the third consecutive week, marking the first three-week streak of increases since early February. Data showed that for the week ending May 8, the total US oil and natural gas rig count—a leading indicator of future production—increased by 1 to 548, the highest since early April. (Webstock Inc.) According to foreign media reports, sources said that since shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, enterprises such as Saudi Aramco's trading arm (Aramco Trading) and UAE national oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had continued to transport crude oil cargoes through the strait. Although current shipment volumes represented only a fraction of what flowed before Iran closed this oil route nearly 10 weeks ago, the actions of both companies served as a reminder to the market that some supply could still reach global markets. According to sources, Adnoc was among the first companies to attempt shipping crude oil, fuel, and natural gas cargoes out through the strait. The company supplied Upper Zakum crude to clients, a grade typically loaded at Zirku Island, but in this case delivered in Fujairah waters outside the Persian Gulf. According to Vortexa data, at the end of April, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) loaded with Abu Dhabi crude turned off its transponder and sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data showed that as of Thursday, another VLCC, Fujairah Energy, remained anchored in waters near Abu Dhabi, carrying half a cargo of crude obtained from Zirku Island via ship-to-ship transfer. A charter agreement indicated that the vessel had been temporarily chartered by Adnoc, with plans to load crude between May 15 and 17 for delivery to Asia. (Jin10 Data) Citi stated that the current base case scenario projects Brent crude oil prices to average $110 in Q2 2026, then decline to $95 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. Fitch expects Brent crude prices to remain at $100–110 per barrel during the Strait of Hormuz blockade from May to July, before pulling back to $70 per barrel by September. Additionally, JPMorgan analysts said US gasoline prices "could very well" rise to $5 per gallon, as refineries are prioritizing jet fuel production at the expense of other products. The analyst team noted in a Friday report that in Asia, the region currently hardest hit by the energy crisis, the price shock triggered by the Iran war is transmitting significantly faster through refined product markets such as jet fuel and diesel than through the crude oil market. If refinery operations continue to be constrained by limited crude supply, fuel prices could become "the primary transmission channel for demand destruction." "In this scenario, even if refined product crack spreads widen significantly, crude prices could still stabilize around $100 per barrel. At that point, the next phase of the shock would look less like a traditional crude oil price spike and more like a refining and end-user fuel supply crisis." The product most visibly impacted currently is jet fuel, which is prompting refineries to maximize jet fuel output as much as possible, typically at the cost of reduced diesel production. The knock-on effects have also spread to gasoline production. Analysts said: "This perhaps explains why US gasoline prices have already risen to $4.55 per gallon, and why the risk of gasoline prices reaching $5 can no longer be ignored." (Jin10 Data) Recommended Reading:

[Conflict Impact] The outbreak of the Middle East conflict on February 28, 2026, significantly disrupted global aluminum market dynamics, driving increased volatility in aluminum prices. Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged alongside escalating tensions, rising from an Official Price of $3,156.5/mt on February 27 to a peak of $3,519.5/mt in early March. Prices later retreated to the $3,200–3,300/mt range in late March, as market sentiment gradually stabilized. On March 28, in response to attacks on Iranian industrial zones, Iran reportedly targeted major regional aluminum producers including Aluminum Bahrain and Emirates Global Aluminum, while Qatar Aluminum declared force majeure. These developments constrained primary aluminum output in the Middle East, tightening market liquidity and increasing supply uncertainty. As a result of supply disruptions, global aluminum availability declined, particularly impacting regions outside China in Asia. Entering April, LME aluminum prices rebounded to $3,400–3,500/mt, breaking above $3,600/mt in mid-April and fluctuating within the $3,500–3,600/mt range. [Shipping Disruptions] The conflict initially disrupted transportation systems across the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz being most severely affected. Key aluminum exporters—including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, and Kuwait—faced significant logistical constraints. Exports that traditionally passed through the Strait were heavily restricted, forcing market participants to adopt alternative logistics routes, including land transport to Red Sea ports. These adjustments significantly increased freight costs and extended delivery lead times. In April, the escalation of conflict into the Red Sea region further limited alternative shipping routes. Most Europe–Asia vessels opted to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, driving both freight costs and transit times higher. According to SMM market research, cargo delivery delays reached 3–5 weeks, while container freight costs surged by as much as 60–70%. [Primary Aluminum and Processing] Reduced Middle Eastern exports tightened primary aluminum supply across major Asian consuming countries, particularly Japan, Thailand, India, and South Korea. In 2024, the Middle East exported 6.408 million mt of primary aluminum and key aluminum products, with these four countries accounting for approximately 20.8% (1.331 million mt). In 2025, exports declined to 6.071 million mt, with imports from these countries totaling approximately 1.215 million mt (~20%). Demand for primary aluminum alloys and billets (notably 6xxx series) remained strong. SMM data shows that following the outbreak of conflict, processing fees for 6063 billets in Southeast Asia rose from $200–250/mt to $250–300/mt, peaking at $300–310/mt. Market feedback indicates a recovery in demand for 6xxx billets, with both domestic and export transactions in Malaysia and Thailand increasing significantly in April. Downstream purchasing sentiment improved, offsetting weaker market conditions observed in January–February. Demand for primary foundry alloys also strengthened. Elevated aluminum prices, reduced Middle Eastern supply, and growth in downstream sectors such as automotive (particularly in Thailand) drove increased enquiries for alloys including A356, AlSi10MnMg, and AlSi10FeMg. Notably, interest in low-carbon aluminum has also increased, reflecting rising alignment with international decarbonization policies such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Against a backdrop of tightening primary supply, importing semi-finished aluminum products from alternative regions may become an increasingly viable option. [Secondary Aluminum] Beyond primary production, the Middle East has also been a significant supplier of aluminum scrap and secondary alloys, serving as an emerging recycling and processing hub prior to the conflict. India and South Korea are key importers of Middle Eastern scrap. In 2024, the region exported 628,000 mt of aluminum scrap, with India and South Korea accounting for 62.6% and 13.5%, respectively. In 2025, total exports rose to 766,000 mt, with imports reaching 489,000 mt (India) and 101,000 mt (South Korea). Amid the conflict, buyers from Japan and South Korea diversified sourcing toward Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia and Thailand, boosting demand for ADC12 secondary aluminum alloy. This shift supported both Southeast Asian FOB prices and Japan CIF prices. In April, continued conflict escalation drove additional demand from India, with SMM data indicating several thousand tonnes of incremental enquiries and transactions in Southeast Asia. SMM began tracking ADC12 FOB prices in Thailand and Malaysia in March 2026. Prices rose from $3,000/mt on March 2 to $3,365/mt by April 27, marking an increase of $365/mt. Market activity remained robust, with strong exports to Japan, South Korea, and India, alongside steady shipments to China, Singapore, and other regions. Some producers have reportedly secured orders through late June to July. On the raw materials side, rising LME aluminum prices pushed both imported and domestic scrap prices higher. In Thailand, aluminum cable scrap reached THB 115,000–120,000/mt ($3,560–3,710/mt) in April, significantly increasing blending costs for billet producers. As scrap prices climbed, some billet producers reduced scrap usage and increased reliance on primary aluminum. Meanwhile, higher prices for Tense scrap led to reduced trading volumes, prompting ADC12 producers to substitute alternative scrap types, including higher-copper materials, to optimize cost structures. Reduced scrap supply from the Middle East also intensified competition, particularly as India increased procurement from alternative markets, tightening supply and driving prices higher in Southeast Asia. [Outlook] The Middle East conflict has fundamentally reshaped aluminum trade flows across Asia and globally, increasing pressure on Southeast Asia’s aluminum processing sector. If the conflict persists, global aluminum trade is likely to become more regionalized, with tighter raw material availability in Asia and stronger internal circulation in Western markets. China may emerge as a key balancing supplier, as widening domestic-international price spreads could open export arbitrage opportunities for semi-finished aluminum products and secondary alloys. However, Southeast Asia may face mounting pressure from raw material shortages and intensified competition, particularly from India. At the same time, tightening low-carbon policies and Western supply chain reshoring may further challenge regional competitiveness. Conversely, a de-escalation of the conflict and normalization of logistics routes could ease supply constraints, potentially placing downward pressure on aluminum product and secondary alloy prices, gradually returning the market toward pre-conflict conditions. [Notes] The “18 Middle Eastern countries” referenced in this report include: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain Levant region: Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Palestine Other key regional countries: Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Cyprus, Libya, Yemen Primary aluminium and related key aluminium products include the following HS codes: 7601 – Unwrought aluminium 7604 – Aluminium bars, rods and profiles 7605 – Aluminium wire 7606 – Aluminium plates, sheets and strip, thickness > 0.2 mm 7607 – Aluminium foil 7608 – Aluminium tubes and pipes

[SMM Analysis] Why Has LME Lead Shifted Back to Backwardation for the First Time in Nearly a Year? SMM, April 21 — Since late March, London lead prices have stabilized after bottoming out, gradually holding above the $1,900/mt level and entering an upward trend, attempting to approach the $2,000/mt mark.

In March 2026, China’s refined copper imports totaled 234,600 mt, up 53.33% MoM but down 24.03% YoY. Exports stood at 58,200 mt, down 25.60% MoM and 14.40% YoY.

SMM April 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in the domestic market. SHFE copper rose 0.78%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper posted a four-week winning streak, gaining 4.07% for the week. SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%, SHFE lead rose 0.24%, SHFE zinc rose 0.71%, SHFE tin rose 0.03%, and SHFE nickel fell 2.19%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.01%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract fell 1.18%. Last Friday's overnight session saw ferrous metals all fall. Iron ore fell 0.58%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, rebar fell 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.24%, and coke fell 0.18%. Overseas market metals last Friday overnight, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 0.81%; on a weekly basis, LME copper posted a four-day winning streak, gaining 3.83% for the week. LME aluminum fell 2.72%, LME lead rose 0.8%, LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin rose 0.03%, and LME nickel rose 1.69%. Precious metals last Friday overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.85%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 1.3%; COMEX silver rose 2.82%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.82%. Last Friday overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.94%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 0.12%; SHFE silver rose 3.74%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.18%. Gold prices rebounded amid optimistic sentiment over US-Iran negotiations, but further gains may be limited until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. Commerzbank analysts noted: "Gold prices also rebounded on hopes of an end to the war, as this eased concerns that central banks would have to respond to higher inflation risks with tighter monetary policy, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, as long as uncertainty remains elevated, the underlying recovery in the gold market may be temporarily exhausted." As of 7:45 AM on April 18, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Deeply Implement the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones and Promote High-Quality Development of Pilot FTZs] Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to hear reports on the development of pilot free trade zones. The meeting noted that since the 18th CPC National Congress, pilot FTZs had actively explored deepening reform, expanding opening-up, and promoting development, achieving a series of breakthrough and pioneering results and effectively serving as comprehensive pilot platforms. In the face of new circumstances and new tasks, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategy for upgrading pilot free trade zones, reform and improve institutional mechanisms, further optimize the layout and enhance capacity, and better serve the overall national development. Efforts should be made to adapt measures to local conditions, proceed in a steady and orderly manner, and pursue practical results. On the basis of scientific assessment and evaluation, and in accordance with local conditions and actual needs, tailored plans should be formulated for each zone to solidly advance related work and promote high-quality development of pilot free trade zones. Support should be given to pilot free trade zones such as Shanghai to leverage their functional positioning, proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening-up in terms of rules, regulations, management, and standards, explore and develop more replicable and scalable experiences and practices, and better play a demonstrative, leading, and radiating role. (CCTV News) [MOF and Another Department: Adjusting the Scope of VAT and Consumption Tax Refund Goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the adjustment of the scope of VAT and consumption tax refund goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone. Goods related to production sold from the mainland to Pingtan via the "second line" shall be treated as exports, and VAT and consumption tax refunds shall be implemented in accordance with current tax policy provisions. However, the following goods are excluded: 1 Exported goods to which the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have stipulated that VAT refund (exemption) and tax exemption policies do not apply. 2 Goods procured for commercial real estate development projects in Pingtan. Commercial real estate development projects refer to the construction (including renovation and expansion) of hotels, office buildings, villas, apartments, residences, commercial shopping venues, entertainment and service facilities, catering establishments, and other commercial real estate projects. 3 Other goods sold from the mainland to Pingtan that are not eligible for tax refunds. The specific scope is detailed in the appendix. 4 Goods purchased by enterprises whose tax refund or exemption eligibility has been revoked in accordance with relevant regulations. (Ministry of Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) [General Administration of Customs: Supporting Local Governments in Building Bulk Commodity Collection, Distribution, Storage, and Transportation Bases Leveraging Comprehensive Bonded Zones to Conduct Storage and Distribution of Bulk Commodities Such as Energy and Mineral Products] On April 17, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the notice of the General Administration of Customs on Several Measures for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of Comprehensive Bonded Zones. Among the measures proposed, serving national strategic needs was highlighted. Support is given to local governments to build bulk commodity collection, distribution, storage, and transportation bases leveraging comprehensive bonded zones, and to conduct storage and distribution of bulk commodities such as energy and mineral products. Enterprises within the zones are allowed to carry out physical blending of metal ore products through bonded logistics. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented. Support is given to enterprises within the zones to conduct key core technology research in areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial master machines, medical equipment, instruments and meters, advanced materials, basic software, and industrial software. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented for relevant equipment, reagents, and consumables imported by enterprises in accordance with national statutory inspection requirements. [CSRC Solicits Public Comments on the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) and Supporting Implementation Provisions] Building on the public consultation conducted in March 2023, the CSRC, in light of new circumstances and issues encountered in futures industry regulatory practice, conducted further research and deliberation on the relevant institutional arrangements of the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies, and formulated a new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft). Concurrently, the CSRC drafted the Announcement on Matters Concerning the Implementation of the (Exposure Draft) as supporting implementation provisions. Public comments are now being solicited. The new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) shifts futures market-making and derivatives trading businesses — previously operated by risk management subsidiaries with filing-based access and self-regulatory management by the China Futures Association — to be operated by futures companies, subject to licensing-based access and administrative supervision, and strengthens the regulation of futures companies' subsidiaries and branches. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.22. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for a third consecutive week, down 0.48% for the week. After Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now "fully open" to commercial shipping, the US dollar erased all gains since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, further weakening demand for safe-haven assets. The index declined consecutively as investors focused on ceasefire and negotiations toward a potentially broader agreement. Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, said: "The safe-haven bid has started to fade. That's why the dollar is lower." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller said he was cautious about whether an interest rate cut was needed in the near term due to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his remarks, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials would be able to look through the surge in energy prices and shift their focus to the weakening job market later this year. He said that if this were the case, "I think there is a prospect that underlying inflation will continue to pull back toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting interest rates now and more inclined to support the labour market through interest rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the broader market were underestimating the risk of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the likelihood that these elevated prices seep into other prices, as enterprises factor high energy input costs into their pricing."He stated that if this occurred against a backdrop of a weak jobs market, it would limit the scope for policy response. In such a scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labour market, adding that "if inflation risks outweigh labour market risks, this could mean keeping the policy rate at the current target range." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member De Marco: June is a more natural time to make a judgment; there is not much additional information in April; the situation seems to be heading toward an adverse scenario; the rate decisions in April or June are not yet set in stone. (Jin10 Data) Analysts at Berenberg Bank said in a report that once the worst of the Middle East conflict passes, Europe's positive fundamentals should re-emerge. Economic growth is likely to be led by Germany, which, in addition to fiscal stimulus, should accelerate pro-growth reforms. They stated: "We expect most eurozone member states to return to their 2025 growth rates by 2027." By 2028, eurozone growth is expected to be around 1.5%. The UK should experience a greater upside. By contrast, US growth is expected to slow down in the coming years. The analysts stated: "Tariff-induced capital misallocation, pervasive Trump policy uncertainty, and most importantly, the harsh crackdown on immigration will all take a toll." (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of April 20; Germany's March PPI MoM; Canada's March CPI MoM; Switzerland's March trade balance; UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate; UK March unemployment rate; UK March jobseeker's allowance claimant count; Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; US March retail sales MoM; US February business inventory MoM; US March pending home sales index MoM; UK March CPI MoM; UK March Retail Price Index MoM; eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary reading; China's March SWIFT RMB share in global payments; France's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; Germany's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; eurozone April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April services PMI preliminary reading; UK April CBI industrial orders balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18; US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary reading; Japan's March core CPI YoY; UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM; Germany's April IFO Business Climate Index; Canada's February retail sales MoM; US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading; and US April one-year inflation expectations final reading. In addition, other events to watch this week included: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde delivering speeches; the US Senate Banking Committee holding a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman; China opening a new round of refined oil price adjustment window; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; US President Trump hosting an early summer White House Correspondents' Dinner. (Jin10 Data) Crude Oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell sharply overnight, with WTI crude dropping 7.86% and Brent crude falling 7.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures fell more than 10% for two consecutive weeks, down 13.02% for the week; Brent crude posted two consecutive weekly declines, down 2.92% for the week. Easing market sentiment from US-Iran nuclear negotiations, coupled with Iran's foreign minister stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels during the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, drove crude oil prices lower. Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump confirmed. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 17th that, given the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this. (Wall Street Journal CN) However, according to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency: Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in the early hours of the 18th, stating that the seven statements US President Trump had previously posted on social media within one hour were "all untrue." The US failed to win wars through lies and would gain nothing in negotiations either. Ghalibaf emphasized that if the US continued to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz could not remain open. (Xinhua News Agency) According to Reuters, approximately 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on local time Friday, investors placed approximately $760 million in short bets on oil prices, marking yet another large wager on the world's most actively traded commodity ahead of a major development during the Middle East conflict. According to LSEG data, between 20:24 and 20:25 Beijing time on Friday, investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude oil futures. At prevailing prices, these trades were worth approximately $760 million. Then around 20:45, Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire, and within minutes, oil prices extended their intraday decline to as much as 11%. In recent months, multiple precisely timed large trades have raised concerns among US lawmakers and legal experts that decisions surrounding war and diplomacy may be giving certain traders an advantage in volatile and opaque derivatives markets. It had previously been reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission was investigating a series of crude oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, all of which occurred shortly before Trump made major policy shifts regarding Iran and the war. The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday local time that it had lent 26.03 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies, marking the third batch of loans by the Trump administration aimed at curbing fuel prices that had surged since the US-Iran war began. The DOE said in a statement that companies receiving SPR loans included BP North America, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum. (Jin10 Data) As Middle Eastern supply was disrupted due to weeks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners turned to importing US crude oil, and US crude oil shipments through the Panama Canal approached a four-year high. According to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler for the first half of April, US crude oil exports via this shortest route connecting the US Gulf Coast to Asia exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching the highest level since July 2022. Sources said waiting times to enter the Panama Canal had extended significantly, prompting crude oil shippers to pay over $3 million for priority passage. Although the Panama Canal cannot accommodate the largest tankers, it provides a shortcut to the Far East. Traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal typically takes close to one month, while routing around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa could take nearly twice as long. Data showed that the vast majority of tankers heading to the Pacific in March and April carried US crude oil destined for Japan and South Korea. (Jin10 Data) In addition, four energy sources said Iraq had resumed southern oil exports after a disruption of over one month due to disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, with a tanker having begun loading. (Jin10 Data) Note: NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures are subject to contract rollover, with the last floor trading completed at 2:30 on April 22 and the last electronic trading completed at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take note. Recommended reading: