Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,940/mt and stayed relatively strong during the Asian session, hitting a high of $1,942/mt. Entering the European session, it pulled back to hover near the intraday moving average before sliding to an intraday low of $1,927.5/mt. It edged up slightly before the close and finally settled at $1,931/mt, down $15/mt, or 0.77%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,710 yuan/mt. After rising early to a high of 16,750 yuan/mt, it turned lower and weakened, staying under pressure around 16,700 yuan/mt and moving sideways. It rose slightly late in the session and finally closed at 16,720 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from yesterday, or 0.21%. On the macro front: US President Trump said at a press conference that the US military action against Iran would end “soon,” but “not” within this week. To address market turbulence caused by the military action and to stabilise international oil prices, Trump announced the cancellation of some oil-related sanctions. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In February 2026, the national CPI rose 1.3% YoY. On average in January–February, the national CPI increased 0.8% from the same period a year earlier. The work report of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress in 2026 disclosed this year’s legislative “construction blueprint”. Centered on accelerating the building of a strong financial country, China will formulate the Financial Law and the Financial Stability Law this year, and revise the Law of the People’s Bank of China and the Law on Banking Supervision and Administration, to build the top-level design of financial rule of law. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of -100~0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. After SHFE lead probed lower and then rebounded, suppliers quoted in line with the market. As delivery approaches, circulating cargoes increased in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai. In addition, cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters were mostly shipped at discounts, while some suppliers showed significant divergence in shipments. Mainstream producing areas offered ex-works quotations at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Circulating cargoes in the secondary lead market were limited, and smelters held prices firm for shipments. Secondary refined lead was quoted ex-works at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, quotations for imported crude lead increased. Downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, with relatively scattered procurement, and spot order market transactions showed no obvious improvement for now. Inventory: As of March 6, LME lead inventory stood at 283,875 mt, down 1,025 mt from the previous day; as of March 9, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued to rise. Lead price forecast for today: After the Chinese New Year holiday factor faded, both supply and demand for lead ingots increased, but even if secondary lead enterprises delayed resuming operations, lead ingot inventories at smelters were still being digested slowly. With delivery of the SHFE lead 2603 contract approaching, and considering that the spread between futures and spot prices has recently stayed above 200 yuan/mt, suppliers in the spot market showed strong willingness to transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouse, gradually moving smelter plant inventories to delivery warehouses. Social inventory of lead ingots is expected to continue rising in the short term, and lead price expectations are expected to remain in the doldrums.

SMM News on March 10: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,710 yuan/mt. In early trading, the price edged down slightly before fluctuating higher and then pulling back again. During the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuate rangebound within 16,670-16,690 yuan/mt. Affected by weak downstream consumption recovery and persistently sluggish spot transactions at smelters, lead prices rebounded slightly in the afternoon before coming under pressure. Near the close, SHFE lead prices settled at the day’s low of 16,650 yuan/mt. A bearish candlestick without a lower shadow was recorded, down 90 yuan/mt, or 0.54%. After the Lantern Festival, domestic smelters accelerated the pace of resuming operations, but downstream consumption sentiment remained weak. Spot shipments stayed at low levels, and inventories at some enterprises remained persistently high. SMM expects that lead prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information and market communication, and generated relying on SMM’s internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM News, March 10: Dealers in Hunan reported that end-use consumption in the e-bike lead-acid battery market was average. After retailers restocked following the holiday, battery sales pulled back somewhat. Current battery inventory is maintained at around half a month, and the wholesale price of the main 48V20Ah model is 400 yuan/set. Manufacturers in Jiangxi reported that demand in the electric lead-acid battery market improved in March. In addition, dealers restocked as usual after the holiday, and finished product orders rebounded significantly compared with February. At present, the operating rate of factory production lines is around 80, with raw material lead mainly procured through long-term contracts. Manufacturers in Zhejiang reported that replacement demand in the electric lead-acid battery market improved relatively, with dealers making purchases based on demand. The current factory operating rate has recovered to above 80. In addition, lead prices lacked upward momentum, and spot supply in circulation was ample, so recent procurement has basically been on a buy-as-needed basis.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Easing Geopolitical Sentiment Supports Base Metals; SS Futures Hold Up Well and Fluctuate Upward SMM News on March 10: SS futures showed a hold-up-well, rangebound pattern. US President Trump said regarding the situation related to Iran that “the war is about to end,” which supported base metals futures and led to signs of strengthening. SS futures also rose in tandem, closing at 14,265 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, driven by stronger SS futures, traders turned more optimistic and confidence improved, with fewer low-priced supplies in the market. Downstream end-users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions remained steady. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated downward. At 10:15 a.m., SS2604 was quoted at 14,310 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums for 304/2B were in the 210-410 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally stable; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was stable and the average price in Foshan was stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted stable; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable. As the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April” begins, the stainless steel market is entering a window for demand recovery. Downstream demand is gradually returning as market participants resume work and resume production after the Chinese New Year holiday, but although transactions improved compared with the earlier period, the bustling peak-season momentum has yet to emerge. End-user procurement remains mainly just-in-time, and stockpiling willingness is relatively low. On the futures side, driven by risk aversion triggered by geopolitical conflicts...

[SMM Chrome Daily Commentary: Quotes Rose Steadily, Strong Support at the Bottom] News on March 10, 2026: Both ferrochrome and chrome ore quotes rose slightly……

SMM News, March 10: Today, Guangdong spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 120 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 110 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong spot #1 copper cathode was 101,335 yuan/mt, up 1,910 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,190 yuan/mt, up 1,925 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory ended a three-day decline and increased slightly, mainly due to higher arrivals. Although both inventory and prices rose, the price spread between futures contracts widened versus yesterday, which instead increased suppliers’ reluctance to sell; on the downstream side, after the sharp rise in copper prices, restocking enthusiasm fell versus yesterday, and overall trading was weaker than yesterday. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.62, down 0.13 from the previous trading day, and shipment sentiment was 3.12, down 0.12 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried by logging into the database). Overall, copper prices rose, but the widening price spread between futures contracts led suppliers to hold back sales; spot premiums increased, but overall trading was weaker than yesterday.

BC copper, the most-traded 2604 contract, opened at 88,740 yuan/mt, fluctuated rangebound early in the session and bottomed at 88,620 yuan/mt. The center of copper prices then gradually moved higher, and after the daytime open it continued to fluctuate upward, testing 90,460 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 90,110 yuan/mt, up 1.90%. Open interest fell to 5,829 lots, down 172 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume rose to 4,634 lots, indicating bears reduced positions. On the macro front, Trump claimed the Iran war was basically over and mentioned considering control of the Strait of Hormuz. Market concerns over geopolitical conflicts eased, driving international oil prices to retreat from highs; the US dollar index was under pressure, which was bullish for copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side saw sustained increases in availability, with ample replenishment from both domestic and imported sources; demand side, affected by rising copper prices, downstream purchasing sentiment was slightly restrained, and the pace of release in rigid demand slowed somewhat. SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 101,520 yuan/mt. Based on BC copper 2604 at 90,110 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 101,824 yuan/mt, and the price spread between SHFE copper 2604 and BC copper was -304. The price spread remained in backwardation and widened markedly versus the previous day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,794.5/mt. After dipping to $12,734/mt in early trading, its center rose throughout the session, touching a high of $12,968.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $12,919/mt, up 0.39%. Trading volume rose to 31,000 lots, an increase of 6,518 lots from the previous trading day; open interest rose to 303,000 lots, down 5,089 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,230 yuan/mt. After bottoming at 100,050 yuan/mt in early trading, its center rose throughout the session, touching a high of 101,250 yuan/mt at the close, and finally settled at 101,160 yuan/mt, up 1.28%. Trading volume fell to 46,000 lots, down 148,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest fell to 197,000 lots, down 3,094 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall.

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,945/mt and fluctuated upward during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it continued to rise and touched a high of $1,955/mt before weakening and dipping to $1,937/mt. Before the close, it recovered part of the losses and finally closed at $1,946/mt, up $2.5/mt, a gain of 0.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,780 yuan/mt. It rose early to a high of 16,815 yuan/mt, then moved lower and weakened. After touching 16,730 yuan/mt at the low, it rebounded to hover and consolidate near the intraday moving average, and finally closed at 16,765 yuan/mt, up 0 yuan/mt from the previous day’s settlement price, with a % change of 0%. On the macro front: US nonfarm payrolls in February unexpectedly fell by 92,000, marking the first single-month negative growth since 2020. After the data release, traders increased their bets on US Fed interest rate cuts in 2026. Analysts believed that a weakening labour market, coupled with escalating tensions in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, intensified market concerns over stagflation risks. Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at an economy-themed press conference that this year’s GDP increment was expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan, equivalent to the annual total of a developed economy, which would provide strong support for stabilising employment, improving people’s livelihoods, and preventing risks. On investment, 109 major projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan will be advanced this year, focusing on building the “six networks” such as water networks, power grids, and computing power networks, as well as facilities for the low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence. The related investment scale this year was expected to exceed 7 trillion yuan. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and suppliers mostly made shipments at discounts, especially for cargoes self-picked up from production site from primary lead smelters, which were quoted at relatively larger discounts. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead smelters held prices firm for shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works, leaving no price spread versus primary lead. In addition, with some imported lead entering the domestic market, downstream enterprises had more procurement options, and transactions in the spot order market remained sluggish. Inventory: As of March 6, LME lead inventory stood at 285,900 mt, unchanged from the previous day; last Thursday, SMM five-region social inventory of lead ingots edged up again and remained at a five-month high. Lead price forecast for today: In March, both supply and demand for domestic lead ingots increased. With imported lead supplementing supply and downstream pre-holiday inventories being digested slowly, lead prices lacked upward momentum. The secondary lead segment was currently in a loss-making state, reducing smelters’ willingness to resume production. Some enterprises delayed their production resumptions to mid-to-late March, briefly providing supportive conditions for lead price performance. This week was also the week before delivery for the SHFE lead 2603 contract. In the spot market in Henan and Hunan, deals for premiums over the SMM #1 lead average price were slightly difficult to conclude. Suppliers and smelters were expected to continue transferring inventory and shipping to delivery warehouses, and expectations of a continued build in visible inventory were still set to keep lead prices under pressure.

[SMM Daily Review: The High-Grade NPI Market Was Briefly Under Pressure, While the Cost-Support Logic Remained Unchanged] News on March 10: SMM’s upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.9, up 0.02 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.4, up 0.03 MoM.