SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. It touched a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, then the center moved lower to a low of $12,929/mt, and finally closed at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume came in at 17,000 lots, down 235 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 304,000 lots, up 279 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting an increase in bears' positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt at the open, then the center moved lower to a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume came in at 26,000 lots, down 62,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 189,000 lots, down 3,320 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting a reduction in bulls' positions overall.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Fell First, Then Rose; Pr-Nd, Dysprosium, and Terbium Saw Wide Swings] Due to the combined impact of market news and falling futures prices, suppliers in the Pr-Nd oxide market lacked confidence in the future market and proactively cut prices for shipments. However, upstream separation plants believed that the tight supply pattern of Pr-Nd oxide had not changed. Therefore, Pr-Nd oxide prices pulled back to 760,000-780,000 yuan/mt before rebounding to 790,000-800,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,360 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly touched a high of 24,390 yuan/mt, then quickly fell to a low of 24,205 yuan/mt. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound and finally closed down at 24,240 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.25%. Trading volume decreased to 35,766 lots, while open interest increased by 1,359 lots to 74,085 lots.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Aluminum Prices Strengthened This Week, Rising Costs Drove Up ADC12 Prices

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Affected by Macro Disturbances, LME Zinc Maintained Wide Swings] LME zinc opened at $3,316/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,331.50/mt, after which prices fell rapidly. It then rose and recovered the losses, but during European trading hours, as bears reduced open interest, LME zinc quickly dipped to $3,284/mt. In the night session, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, LME zinc gradually recouped the losses and returned to fluctuate above the average price line, finally closing down at $3,314.50/mt, down $1/mt, or 0.03%. Trading volume decreased to 82,887 lots, and open interest increased by 527 lots to 217,000 lots.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Rebound Lifted Sentiment, Spot Quotes Rose Across the Board] Spot market, boosted by the rebound in futures prices, ADC12 quotes rose across the board today, with the SMM average price of ADC12 raised by 300 yuan/mt. Driven by the cost side, producers actively recouped earlier losses, generally raising prices by 200-400 yuan/mt. However, affected by wild swings in prices during the week, downstream purchase sentiment remained cautious, with most buyers staying on the sidelines and only restocking to meet immediate needs, while the overall pace of market transactions was stable. In the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and a mild release of supply, ADC12 prices were expected to hold up well.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of China Customs (GACC), China's total iron ore imports for January and February 2023 reached 211 million tonnes, with a cumulative value of approximately US$9.89 billion. The average import price across these two months was US$101.3 per tonne , a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. An analysis by month shows January imports totalled 110.35 million tonnes, representing a 7.77% decrease from the previous month but a 13.59% increase year-on-year. February imports were 99.67 million tonnes , down 9.68% month-on-month, yet showing a 5.80% increase year-on-year. The decline in import volumes is primarily attributed to frequent weather-related disruptions in key supplying nations like Australia and Brazil, which adversely affected mine-to-port rail networks and port loading operations, causing a temporary downturn in overseas shipments. Concurrently, operational activity at major domestic ports slowed during the Chinese New Year holiday, impacting the efficiency of vessel unloading, cargo warehousing, and customs clearance procedures. These combined factors contributed to the reduction in import scale during the first two months of 2023. Looking ahead to March, iron ore imports are forecast to experience a month-on-month rebound. This is anticipated due to shipping disruptions in the Middle East, caused by a partial blockade in the Strait of Hormuz , which may lead some vessels to be rerouted to China , thereby boosting import figures. Furthermore, weather-related logistical constraints are expected to ease, allowing shipments from producing countries to normalise. Finally, as March marks the end of the first quarter , some mining companies may increase their shipment volumes to meet quarterly targets, which would further support a recovery in import levels.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Briefing: Middle East Situation Remains Deadlocked, Aluminum Prices Hold Up Well] Overall, macro geopolitical risks are providing support at the bottom of prices, while the continued buildup in China’s social inventory is weighing on aluminum prices. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unclear. If the conflict persists, expectations for tighter global aluminum supply will remain strong, and aluminum prices will still have solid upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are still expected to hold up well.

[Repeated Macro Sentiment Led to Wide Swings in SHFE Zinc]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,370 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc briefly rose in early trading to a high of 24,460 yuan/mt, after which bulls reduced their open interest, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward with its center moving lower, eventually closing down at 24,300 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt, or 0.35%. Trading volume increased to 109,000 lots, while open interest fell by 1,494 lots to 74,220 lots.

[SMM Daily Review: Market Activity Continued to Recover, and the Center of the High-Grade NPI Market Continued to Move Upward] March 12 News, SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.91, up 0.04 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.65, up 0.01 MoM.