[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Prices Pull Back as Aluminum Scrap Holders Are Reluctant to Sell; Overall Market Trading Remains Muted] Yesterday, the SMM ADC12 price rose by 500 yuan/mt, with the center of market quotations moving up markedly. Most producers’ price adjustments were concentrated in the 500–600 yuan/mt range. Recently, raw material prices have continued to strengthen, and the cost side has risen quickly, providing a clear lift to enterprise quotations. However, downstream demand has been relatively steady. Most enterprises reported that orders and inquiry activity were generally average, and downstream purchasing remains mainly restocking on an as-needed basis. Supported by cost-driven momentum and market expectations, enterprises have shown a clear willingness to raise prices. In the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and mild supply release, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well. The medium-term trend will still depend on the recovery of end-use consumption. If die-casting industry orders increase significantly, the price center is expected to move up further; if demand recovery falls short of expectations, coupled with a continued rise in operating rates on the supply side, prices will shift from elevated levels into rangebound consolidation.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Geopolitical Risks in the Middle East Cool Significantly; Aluminum Prices to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Overall, from a macro perspective, easing geopolitical risks and the continued buildup of domestic social inventory have created bearish pressure on aluminum prices. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unclear; if the conflict persists, expectations for a tightening of global aluminum supply are strong, and aluminum prices still have solid upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are still expected to hold up well.

SMM March 10: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2603 moved lower, with the price center dropping sharply from the previous trading day. Today, purchasing sentiment was not significantly driven by aluminum prices; buying strength remained weak, and buying interest was low. Today, mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to premiums of 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.19, down 0.03 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.53, up 0.04 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum fell sharply in early trading, and purchasing sentiment was not significantly driven by aluminum prices; buying strength remained weak, and buying interest was low. Today, mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at discounts of 130 yuan/mt to discounts of 120 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 03 contract. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.58, down 0.12 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, today aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased 13,000 mt MoM, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued seasonal inventory buildup; affected by bullish sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,794.5/mt. After dipping to $12,734/mt in early trading, its center rose throughout the session, touching a high of $12,968.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $12,919/mt, up 0.39%. Trading volume rose to 31,000 lots, an increase of 6,518 lots from the previous trading day; open interest rose to 303,000 lots, down 5,089 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,230 yuan/mt. After bottoming at 100,050 yuan/mt in early trading, its center rose throughout the session, touching a high of 101,250 yuan/mt at the close, and finally settled at 101,160 yuan/mt, up 1.28%. Trading volume fell to 46,000 lots, down 148,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest fell to 197,000 lots, down 3,094 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Price Pullback Spurs Aluminum Scrap Hoarding; Overall Market Trading Remains Subdued] Overall ADC12 market quotations moved lower, with most cuts in the 200-400 yuan/mt range. The adjustments were mainly driven by a downward shift in the cost center and subdued downstream purchasing. However, against the backdrop of a price pullback, aluminum scrap traders’ reluctance to sell has become pronounced, leaving limited room for raw material costs to fall further. Enterprises have been generally cautious in making price adjustments, and most producers remain bullish on the outlook. In the short term, with cost support and a mild release of supply, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well. The medium-term trend will still depend on the recovery in end-use consumption. If die-casting industry orders increase significantly, the price center is expected to move further higher; if demand recovery falls short of expectations, coupled with a continued rise in operating rates on the supply side, prices will shift from elevated levels into rangebound consolidation.

[SMM Chrome Daily Commentary: Quotes Rose Steadily, Strong Support at the Bottom] News on March 10, 2026: Both ferrochrome and chrome ore quotes rose slightly……

As of March 10, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction materials was 35.38%, up 24.62% WoW from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 29.34%, up 22.46% WoW; daily average production of construction materials was 65,300 mt, up 50,000 mt WoW.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Middle East Geopolitical Risks Heighten Supply Concerns; Aluminum Prices to Trend Strongly Higher in the Short Term] Overall, although domestic social inventory continues to build up, the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the focus of global attention. If the geopolitical conflict continues, expectations for a tightening in global aluminum supply will remain strong, and aluminum prices will have strong upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to hold up well.

BC copper, the most-traded 2604 contract, opened at 88,740 yuan/mt, fluctuated rangebound early in the session and bottomed at 88,620 yuan/mt. The center of copper prices then gradually moved higher, and after the daytime open it continued to fluctuate upward, testing 90,460 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 90,110 yuan/mt, up 1.90%. Open interest fell to 5,829 lots, down 172 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume rose to 4,634 lots, indicating bears reduced positions. On the macro front, Trump claimed the Iran war was basically over and mentioned considering control of the Strait of Hormuz. Market concerns over geopolitical conflicts eased, driving international oil prices to retreat from highs; the US dollar index was under pressure, which was bullish for copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side saw sustained increases in availability, with ample replenishment from both domestic and imported sources; demand side, affected by rising copper prices, downstream purchasing sentiment was slightly restrained, and the pace of release in rigid demand slowed somewhat. SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 101,520 yuan/mt. Based on BC copper 2604 at 90,110 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 101,824 yuan/mt, and the price spread between SHFE copper 2604 and BC copper was -304. The price spread remained in backwardation and widened markedly versus the previous day.

[SMM Daily Review: The High-Grade NPI Market Was Briefly Under Pressure, While the Cost-Support Logic Remained Unchanged] News on March 10: SMM’s upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.9, up 0.02 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.4, up 0.03 MoM.