[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at about 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at about 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt, with the price center edging up WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded contract showed strength, with the most-traded SI2609 contract consolidating near 8,600 yuan/mt. Futures prices rose, which, combined with silicon enterprises’ reluctance to sell at low prices, reduced cheap supply in the silicon market. Suppliers’ offer centers firmed, while downstream users remained largely in a wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in subdued trading. Wafers: Market prices were 0.798-0.827 yuan/piece for 18X wafers, 0.896-0.915 yuan/piece for 210RN wafers, and 1.097-1.113 yuan/piece for 210N wafers. The upper end of the wafer price range inched up. Yesterday afternoon, a leading specialized wafer enterprise also suspended quoting, planning to increase prices by over 10%. As of now, three enterprises have stopped quoting or suspended shipments.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Commentary] Coking Coal Market: Low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen was quoted at 2,000 yuan/mt. For coking coal, mine production resumptions remain constrained by safety regulations, limiting supply growth. Downstream inventory is not high, with some restocking demand, providing support for coking coal prices. Online auction sentiment continued to recover, and the short-term coking coal market is likely to consolidate on a strong note. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke – dry quenched was 1,925 yuan/mt. Supply side, high costs and the third round of coke price cuts created a double squeeze, pushing most coke producers into losses. In response, they proactively made modest production cuts. However, some coke producers faced sluggish shipments, leading to a certain degree of inventory buildup. Demand side, a rebound in finished steel prices eased pressure on steel mills, and their production enthusiasm was moderate, leading to an increase in actual rigid demand for coke. Overall, with both supply and demand weak, the supply-demand imbalance in coke fundamentals eased somewhat. With strong cost support, the short-term coke market is likely to enter a temporary stable phase. [SMM Steel]

According to SMM, in July, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises was 67.01%, down 1.7 percentage points MoM, up 0.84 percentage points from expectations, and up 0.5 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 78.83%, medium-sized enterprises 48.73%, and small enterprises 58.05%. In July, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises stood at 67.01%, down 1.7 percentage points MoM but up 0.5 percentage points YoY (the operating rate in July last year was 66.51%). Overall, copper prices sustained an upward trend in July, compounded by the persistently high premium on spot copper cathode earlier. As the market entered the traditional consumption off-season, downstream end-user orders were already weak; high copper prices further suppressed purchase willingness, causing new orders for copper cathode rod enterprises to keep weakening. Against this backdrop, many copper cathode rod plants voluntarily arranged maintenance and production cuts, the industry-wide operating level pulled back, and output of copper cathode rod declined. By downstream sector, the two major consumption areas of wire and cable and enamelled wire also bore the impact of high copper prices; enterprises grew more cautious in stockpiling and proactively controlled raw material inventory, while industry orders contracted in tandem, and overall demand exhibited a clear seasonal pullback. In July, days of raw material inventories for copper cathode rod enterprises stood at 2.04 days, while days of finished product inventories were 3.66 days. Copper prices kept rising this month, making enterprises generally more cautious in raw material procurement. Most adopted a strategy of purchasing as needed and restocking only for rigid demand, with days of raw material inventories up 0.1 days MoM. Meanwhile, sluggish downstream wire & cable and enamelled wire demand and lackluster production enthusiasm impeded finished product destocking, pushing days of finished product inventories up 0.22 days MoM. The operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises is expected to be 64.75% in August. Looking ahead to August, the copper cathode rod operating rate is expected to decline 2.26 percentage points MoM to 64.75%, and drop 3.62 percentage points YoY. Copper prices stay high, downstream fear of high prices continues to ferment, wait-and-see sentiment in the market remains thick, new orders are unlikely to recover significantly, and the industry's August operating may continue to trend weakly. On the foreign trade side, imported copper premiums have pulled back. Affected by July orders falling short of expectations, some copper cathode rod enterprises lowered their quotes and accelerated the delivery pace of long-term contracts, which is expected to drive a MoM rebound in August exports. However, incremental new orders from outside China are limited, making it difficult to reverse weak domestic demand.

According to SMM, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises in July was 67.01%, down 1.7 percentage points MoM, up 0.84 percentage points from expectations, and up 0.5 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 78.83%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 48.73%, and that of small enterprises was 58.05%. In July, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises was 67.01%, down 1.7 percentage points MoM and up 0.5 percentage points YoY (66.51% in July last year). Overall, copper prices continued to rise in July, coupled with the long-term high premium pattern of spot copper cathode earlier. The market entered the traditional consumption off-season, and downstream end-user orders were already weak; high copper prices further suppressed purchase willingness, leading to a continued weakening of new orders for copper cathode rod enterprises. Against this backdrop, many copper cathode rod plants proactively arranged maintenance and production cuts, the industry's overall operating level pulled back, and copper cathode rod output declined. By downstream sector, the two main consumption sectors, wire and cable and enamelled wire, also bore the impact of high copper prices. Enterprises became more cautious in stockpiling, actively controlled raw material inventories, and industry orders contracted simultaneously, with overall demand showing a clear seasonal pullback. In July, the days of raw material inventories for copper cathode rod enterprises were 2.04 days, and days of finished product inventories were 3.66 days. With copper prices rising continuously this month, enterprises were generally cautious in raw material procurement, mostly adopting a strategy of purchasing as needed and rigid restocking, with days of raw material inventories increasing by 0.1 days MoM. Meanwhile, demand from downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire was sluggish, production enthusiasm was insufficient, and finished product destocking was hindered, driving days of finished product inventories up by 0.22 days MoM. The operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises in August is expected to be 64.75%. Looking ahead to August, the operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to fall by 2.26 percentage points MoM to 64.75%, and decline by 3.62 percentage points YoY. Copper prices stayed high, downstream fear of high prices continued to ferment, market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and new orders were unlikely to recover significantly. The industry's operating rate in August may continue the weak pattern. On the foreign trade front, imported copper premiums pulled back. Affected by July orders falling short of expectations, some copper cathode rod enterprises lowered their quotes and accelerated the delivery pace of long-term contracts. Exports in August are expected to rebound MoM, but the growth in new overseas orders is limited, making it difficult to reverse weak domestic demand.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Supply-Side Contraction Eases Inventory Buildup Pressure, Lead Prices Expected to Maintain Consolidation Trend] PBOC: Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Recently, primary lead and secondary lead enterprises in some regions have undergone maintenance or production cuts, leading to regional supply tightening...

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Wafer Transaction Range Convergence, Solar Cell Price Increase] Market wafer prices were 18X (0.799–0.824 yuan/piece), 210RN (0.897–0.915 yuan/piece), and 210N (1.097–1.113 yuan/piece). Wafer range prices were slightly raised, a leading integrated enterprise suspended quoting and shipments, while other enterprises are currently maintaining their quotes, but most of them have controlled shipments, and the transaction range has significantly converged, with low-price orders definitely disappearing.

At end-July, zinc calcine TCs declined, with tight raw material supply and elevated procurement costs, combined with production cuts at some enterprises, putting market prices under pressure. Entering August, the tightness on the raw material side persists, but with weakening demand and profit constraints on enterprises, the room for further decline in TCs may be relatively limited.

【Zinc Concentrate Market】According to SMM, domestic zinc concentrate production declined month-on-month in July, as safety inspections led to production cuts and suspensions at mines across multiple regions, while declining ore grades continued to constrain mine output.

On August 7, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.211 million mt of steel products in July 2026, down 199,000 mt MoM, or 1.9% MoM; cumulative exports from January to July reached 64.995 million mt, down 4.4% YoY. In July 2026, China imported 445,000 mt of steel products, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Table 1: Steel Imports and Exports Data Summary, January-July Source: SMM • China's steel exports stayed elevated with fluctuations in July According to SMM's July export schedule survey, the planned HRC export volume for the month was 1.059 million mt, slightly higher than actual exports in June. SMM export order data showed that export orders for steel products declined from a high level in May. At that time, port inspections on MD and other activities were relatively strict, which slowed down the pace of some export orders. However, orders at steel mills improved slightly. Coupled with the fact that cargoes delayed due to earlier inspections were gradually shipped out in July, overall steel exports in July still delivered a relatively decent performance. Table 2: China's Total Steel Exports Source: SMM • July steel imports remained low On the import side, steel imports in July were 445,000 mt, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Net exports of steel reached 61.855 million mt. Short-term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global manufacturing slid further MoM; overseas demand remained in off-season mode According to J.P. Morgan's global PMI data, the Global Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 came in at 52.1. Although it remained in expansion territory, the pace of expansion slowed for the third consecutive month. The preemptive steel stockpiling demand earlier triggered by geopolitical disruptions in Middle Eastern shipping has been fully cleared. Combined with persistently weak demand for consumer goods, property, and infrastructure among end-users in Europe and the US, global commodity and physical steel orders collectively fell into contraction territory. Alongside this, ASEAN manufacturing PMI also declined again. China's Manufacturing New Export Orders Index for July was 49.6%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM, slipping back into contraction territory. 2. Overseas steel mills have proactively controlled production; supply contraction lacks sustainability In June 2026, global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 157.9 million mt. In China, as the southern rainy season and high-temperature off-season deepened, downstream steel product construction was significantly hampered. Under heavy pressure from persistently inverted profit margins, steel mills' monthly output edged down 0.8% MoM. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world declined 2.0% MoM, with performance diverging in Asia's core regions. India and Vietnam both saw flat MoM output in June; the former was supported by robust domestic infrastructure resilience, while the latter benefited from earlier concentrated stockpiling and steady operation following new capacity ramp-up. In contrast, Japan and South Korea were dragged by slowing production schedules in downstream automotive and manufacturing sectors, showing a seasonal slight correction. Notably, the Middle East and CIS regions, which had plunged deeply in May, saw marginal recovery. Meanwhile, Europe and the US collectively entered a seasonal weakening trajectory. EU production in June dropped significantly by 5.3% MoM, with Germany tumbling 9.4%; North America declined 5.9% MoM and the US also fell 4.0%. The main reasons for the pullback in Europe and the US were, on one hand, the industry's entry into the routine summer maintenance period, and on the other, the high summer electricity prices and steel scrap prices squeezing electric furnace margins, significantly dampening mills' willingness to operate. The decline in overseas production theoretically offers structural opportunities for China's exports. However, the drops in end markets like Europe and the US were more due to proactive production cuts driven by falling demand. Coupled with India and Vietnam still maintaining high output, China's exports continue to face pressure. Figure 1: Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price advantage continued to narrow; export order-taking pressure persisted As of July 31, 2026, the HRC export offers (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS stood at $515/mt, $575/mt, and $515/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export offer (FOB) was $486/mt. China's HRC offers were -$29/mt, -$89/mt, and -$29/mt lower than those other countries, respectively. China's steel export price advantage further narrowed MoM from June. Overseas markets remained in the off-season, and low-price promotions remained the main channel for those countries to ease domestic pressures. In contrast, domestic sales pressure was not evident, and prices remained relatively firm. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, and pressure on export order-taking persisted. Figure 2: HRC Offers in Major Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export orders rebounded from a bottom in June-July; order-taking improved slightly According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, the planned HRC export volume this month was 1.023 million mt, down 2.8% MoM from the actual level last month. SMM steel export order data showed that although overseas markets remained in the off-season, recent restrictions on resource exports from the Middle East (especially Iran) created a notable supply gap in semi-finished products in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia. This shortfall was quickly filled by Chinese resources. On the other hand, traders took profits from spot-futures price spread operations in late July, offering lower actual prices to facilitate transactions, which led to a bottoming rebound in export order data in July. In reality, overseas demand had not yet emerged from the off-season, and a steady recovery in export order-taking still faces pressure. Figure 3: SMM Steel Export Order Volume Source: SMM 5. Anti-dumping cases related to steel increased in July In July, the number of new anti-dumping cases related to steel initiated against China increased, covering products such as steel pipes, coated steel, sections, coiled rebar, wire rod, and hot-rolled coils. Details of specific cases and affected volumes are shown in the table below: Table 3: New Anti-Dumping Cases in July Source: SMM Taking all factors into account, lower actual transaction prices stimulated some volume growth, with semi-finished products accounting for a larger share. Given that July export numbers have already been significantly elevated, SMM expects that total steel exports in August will not sustain a strong unilateral upward trend. Instead, they will move sideways in a high range, while semi-finished product exports will remain relatively high. Figure 4: Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work of this official account. For requests related to reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, etc., please contact us. Without permission, no part may be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to any third party, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to holding the infringing party liable for breach of contract, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. 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[SMM Spot Titanium Flash: Titanium Concentrates Market Remains Weak, Raw Material Weakness Puts Titanium Dioxide at Further Downside Risk] SMM, August 7 –