[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Sharply Lower in the Night Session and Remained Rangebound at Low Levels, While Trading in the Spot Market Was Relatively Mediocre]

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937.5/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the intraday moving average. After entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,945.5/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels before pulling back to a low of $1,932/mt. Before the close, it edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, and finally closed at $1,935.5/mt, down $3/mt, or 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/mt. After dipping to 16,550 yuan/mt in early trading, it rebounded and consolidated near the intraday moving average, finally closing at 16,595 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.21%. On the macro front: The fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in Beijing. The meeting voted to adopt the resolution on the government work report and reviewed and approved the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, charting the course for economic and social development over the next five years. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that although the February nonfarm payrolls report released last week came in weaker than expected, the mild pullback in initial jobless claims indicated that the scale of corporate layoffs remained limited, with employers still more inclined to retain workers. This eased market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labour market. After the data release, major US stock indexes maintained their declines, while energy stocks were among the few sectors that rose due to a sharp increase in oil prices. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. The center of SHFE lead moved further lower, and suppliers shipped in line with market conditions. In addition, with delivery approaching, some suppliers became less willing to sell, and quotations appeared somewhat firmer, with significantly fewer transactions at large discounts. Among them, ex-factory quotations in major primary lead producing areas were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, circulation of spot cargo in the secondary lead market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased under long-term contracts, with limited spot order replenishment, while some purchased as needed. Trading in the spot market was subdued on both sides. Inventory: As of March 12, LME lead inventory fell by 375 mt to 284,500 mt; as of March 12, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued its accumulation trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Approaching the weekend, operating rates at primary lead smelters in Hunan gradually resumed, though they had not yet returned to full production, and primary lead quotations in Hunan and Guangdong remained relatively firm. As the delivery date of the SHFE lead 2603 contract approached, suppliers were shifting inventory to delivery warehouses one after another, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to become more visible. With more imported lead arriving at ports and China refined lead supply gradually recovering, spot cargo in the spot market was relatively ample. Downstream enterprises had more procurement options, actively negotiated prices, and bought the dip. In the short term, the accumulation trend in social inventory of lead ingots is expected to be difficult to reverse, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

On the demand side, the EV battery market has seen order contractions compared to earlier expectations, impacted by lackluster new energy vehicle sales both domestically and internationally.

This week，the solid-state battery industry showed a dual-engine momentum driven by "intensive breakthroughs on the technology front and targeted solutions on the policy front." CATL disclosed a sulphide patent, Zhongkeyuanben's 20Ah all-solid-state battery passed third-party detection, and Dreame Technology released a 450Wh/kg product; Guangdong took the lead in incorporating diversified solid-state battery technology routes and eVTOL scenarios into provincial-level action plans.

This week, prices for some Grade-B battery cells in the second-life battery market rose. Cost side, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated more sharply this week and showed an overall upward trend, directly pushing up battery cell production costs; nickel sulphate prices edged up, while cobalt sulphate prices remained stable, providing mild support on the cost side and lifting overall cost pressure somewhat. Supply side, the market was clearly boosted by energy storage demand, enterprises showed relatively strong willingness to sell, and circulating supply was steadily released; coupled with rising lithium carbonate prices, enterprises' expectations for higher costs strengthened, and overall pricing sentiment remained firm to slightly stronger. Demand side, demand for second-life Grade-B battery cells recovered significantly, mainly driven by the energy storage market, as downstream energy storage projects commenced and supporting demand continued to be released, noticeably boosting procurement enthusiasm.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: The SHFE/LME Price Ratio Continued to Weaken, and Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from overseas prices, and the backwardation structure was expected to persist in the short term. China was in a phase of high inventory + weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum was clearly weaker than that outside China. Amid diverging domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[SMM Weekly Survey of the Aluminum Downstream Sector: Downstream Aluminum Operating Rate Continued to Rebound to 61.9%, with High Prices Suppressing the Peak "Golden March" Season] This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China rose 2.4 percentage points MoM to 61.9%, overall extending the post-holiday recovery trend, with all segments rebounding MoM, and the industry as a whole entering a normal production pace.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Alloy Prices Continued to Hover at Highs, While Market Demand Was Significantly Suppressed] This week, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued to rise, but the pace of demand follow-up was relatively slow. In the short term, raw material costs remained at high levels, providing strong support for ADC12 prices; however, if prices continue to rise, the suppressive effect of high prices on demand will become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, as operating rates gradually recover, there are also expectations of a mild increase on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on the pace of downstream order release, the pressure on the market from the supply recovery process, and the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Aluminum Prices Strengthened This Week, Rising Costs Drove Up ADC12 Prices

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Continued to Consolidate at High Levels, with Cost Support and Demand Stalemate Persisting] This week, the overall magnesium industry chain continued to consolidate at high levels, with prices of all categories remaining largely stable. The raw material dolomite market operated steadily, with differentiated supply across regions but overall stability, while the procurement pace on the demand side remained steady. The magnesium ingot market remained in a supply and demand stalemate, as producers showed strong reluctance to sell, and low circulating inventory supported firm quotations. However, both domestic trade and foreign trade demand appeared weak, transactions were sluggish, and FOB quotations stayed at high levels, though actual deals were limited. The magnesium powder market remained stable with a firm tone, domestic trade demand continued to recover steadily, foreign trade growth was limited, and cost support remained in place. The magnesium alloy market's benchmark price held steady, processing fees remained firm, enterprise operating rates rebounded, and downstream demand gradually recovered, though the pace of growth slowed, with overall transactions remaining mild. Looking ahead, the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand is expected to continue, and the market may continue to consolidate at high levels.