SMM July 17: For the week of July 10-16, 2026, the SMM weekly operating rate of secondary lead smelters across four provinces was 30.5%, down 0.12 percentage points WoW. Smelters in Jiangsu, Anhui, and Inner Mongolia operated steadily, while those in Henan slightly cut production due to insufficient scrap battery arrivals. Looking ahead to next week, attention will be on downstream purchase activity and its impact on lead price trends, as well as raw material supply at smelters. SMM expects the operating rate of secondary lead smelters in the four provinces to remain stable next week; watch for production cut plans at smelters outside these four provinces.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Stop Rising and Pull Back, Spot Prices Hold Steady while Transactions Cool According to SMM on July 17, the SS futures showed a subdued consolidation trend. Weighed down by the overall weakness in the nonferrous metals sector, SS futures moved lower simultaneously, with the most-traded SS contract closing at 14,645 yuan/mt. In the spot market, boosted by yesterday's SS futures gains, spot stainless steel prices were generally raised yesterday afternoon, with transactions gradually recovering. However, today's futures stopped rising and pulled back; although spot prices remained stable for the time being, transactions weakened. SS most-traded futures contract: At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was reported at 14,795 yuan/mt, up 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 225-575 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, the average price rose 100 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 75 yuan/mt in Foshan; for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi, prices were flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, prices in Wuxi were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices were flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, macro-wise, the US CPI data pulled back, leading to cooling inflation expectations and a modest recovery in market risk appetite. Additionally, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) clarified that additional nickel ore production quotas for this year would be only moderate and limited, signaling limited growth potential and a sustained tight supply pattern for raw materials. This provided solid underlying support for the spot market, driving SHFE nickel and SS futures to stop falling and rebound. Regarding spot cargo and inventory, steel mills held prices firm to underpin the market...

[SMM PGM Express] Osmium is attracting growing attention in the luxury goods and alternative investment markets, supported by its exceptional rarity (most rare preciuos metal on earth) and increasing use in high-end jewellery. Industry sources indicate that crystalline osmium prices have increased by nearly 500% over the past eight years, reflecting limited supply and expanding demand from collectors and luxury brands. Global osmium output remains extremely limited, as the metal is recovered only as a by-product of platinum group metal mining. Industry estimates suggest that approximately 22 tonnes of recoverable osmium remain available, underscoring its scarcity and contributing to a relatively small global market. Most refined crystalline osmium is currently held by long-term investors, limiting the volume available for trade. Beyond its rarity, crystalline osmium is gaining recognition for its unique physical properties, including its high density, natural brilliance and traceable certification system, making it increasingly attractive as both a luxury material and a tangible asset. As interest expands beyond Europe into markets such as China and the United States, market participants will continue to monitor supply availability, investor demand and adoption by the luxury jewellery sector as key drivers of future price trends.

[SMM Cobalt-Lithium Morning Briefing: This week, prices in the new energy industry chain continued to diverge. The lithium industry chain was generally weak. The transaction center of lithium ore shifted lower alongside lithium chemical prices, and lithium carbonate fell to around 150,000 yuan/mt. Downstream firms bought the dip at low price levels, but upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling, intensifying the market tug-of-war. Lithium hydroxide transaction prices declined in tandem, and overall trading remained sluggish. In the cobalt industry chain, demand was weak. Refined cobalt, cobalt sulphate, and cobalt chloride all lacked effective transaction support, while prices of intermediate products and Co3O4 temporarily held steady. Nickel sulphate inventory continued to decline, but downstream stockpiling willingness was insufficient, and prices still faced pressure.]

[7.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June PPI declined 0.3% MoM, the first drop since last year, while market expectations were for a flat reading; June PPI rose 5.5% YoY, significantly narrowing from the 6.5% in May; June core PPI YoY growth slowed to 4.7%, with only a 0.2% MoM increase, both below market expectations. On July 16, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract surged in early trading, breaking through 130,000 yuan/mt and briefly hitting 133,000 yuan/mt, with a morning gain of 2.9%; LME nickel simultaneously held above $17,000/mt, rising about 2.5% in early trading. Recently, macro, policy, and cost-side positives re-emerged. Combined with a MACD golden cross, nickel prices holding above the 10-day moving average, and bearish funds taking profits, nickel prices have rebound momentum. However, weak demand and high inventory continue to cap upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade within a 127,000–137,000 yuan/mt range. Going forward, attention will focus on the results of Indonesia's July RKAB quota approval and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

[SMM Tungsten Express] European APT market offers held steady in the $2,900-3,250/mtu range this week, with overall trading remaining light. Market participation was limited due to the summer holiday season, with both buyers and sellers inactive. Mine supply has increased somewhat, weighing on price expectations, though this has yet to be fully reflected in spot transactions. Some traders noted that APT offers near $3,200/mtu appear inflated, with actual deals difficult to achieve, resulting in a market with prices but no buyers. Scrap prices also came under pressure, with European producers accelerating their shift toward recycled scrap material, further weakening demand for primary APT. The market is expected to remain weak and range-bound in the near term, with attention on Chinese price trends and demand recovery post-summer.

[Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum Weekly Review: Secondary Aluminum Market Moved Sideways, Off-Season Supply-Demand Weakness Pattern Continued] This week, aluminum scrap prices moved sideways overall. On July 16, SMM A00 spot aluminum prices closed at 23,170 yuan/mt, rebounding 220 yuan/mt from last Thursday. Regarding the price difference, on July 16, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was 1,972 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was 658 yuan/mt, still at extremely low levels.

[SMM Lithium Battery Anode Raw Material Market Weekly Review: Artificial Graphite Stable with Upside Potential, Natural Graphite Sideways and Hard to Break Out] July 16 news: This week, the artificial graphite market maintained a stable price trend.

SMM, July 16: This week, transaction sentiment in China's aluminum fluoride market softened somewhat, while aluminum fluoride prices remained stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; cryolite prices held steady, with SMM quoting 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: China's 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note this week, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,450 yuan/mt, while regional price spreads persisted. Supply side, affected by safety incidents, nationwide mine safety inspections intensified markedly, and most mines in core production areas like Zhejiang and Fujian have entered shutdown self-inspection and rectification stages, dragging down the industry's overall operating rate and tightening spot cargo availability. Although production resumptions at some northern mines and increased imports from Mongolia provided partial supplement, supply remained tight overall amid widespread sentiment of holding back from selling and holding prices firm among ore sellers. Demand side, still in the traditional off-season, fluorine chemical enterprises kept operating rates reduced, hydrofluoric acid operating rates stayed low, and downstream demand in refrigerants and fluoropolymers was sluggish, with procurement mostly need-based, capping price upside. As the support from tightening spot supply gradually emerged, market sentiment improved, and transaction prices edged up. However, with no fundamental improvement in off-season demand, the sustainability and upside room of this rebound still face pressure. China's aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower this week, with SMM weighted average price at 1,690 yuan/mt, edging down 0.41% WoW. The sulphuric acid market consolidated at highs. Overall, raw material price trends diverged, and comprehensive production costs for aluminum fluoride remained high. Supply side, trapped in a negative cycle of high costs, deep losses, and low operating rates, rising raw material prices exacerbated cost-side losses, widening the loss margin, prompting more maintenance shutdowns and flexible production adjustments, further reducing overall operating rates. Some enterprises adopted a contraction strategy, prioritizing long-term contract deliveries with virtually no new production schedules, limiting effective supply growth. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing a rigid demand floor for aluminum fluoride, but aluminum smelters remained cautious in procurement, mainly restocking on a need-to basis and pushing for lower prices, with no incremental purchase demand released. Commentary: This week, upstream raw materials for aluminum fluoride diverged—fluorite edged up, aluminum hydroxide weakened, and sulphuric acid consolidated at highs. Industry-wide production costs stayed high, making it difficult for producers to restore profitability, and production stockpiling sentiment was weak. Currently, the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream is intense, with no clear directional driver, and transactions mostly involve sporadic need-based restocking. Short-term aluminum fluoride prices are expected to hold in a stalemate, with limited room for movement. Close attention should be paid to raw material cost dynamics and marginal adjustments in downstream aluminum enterprises' procurement pace.

SMM, July 16: Raw material side: This week, China's petroleum coke market held up well overall, with prices consolidating on a firm note and a strong bullish sentiment prevailing. Prices of petroleum coke across all specifications rose broadly, with low-sulphur petroleum coke showing a particularly clear upward trend. On the refinery front, CNOOC's Binzhou, Taizhou, and Huizhou Petrochemical plants generally raised their prices, providing strong support to the market. PetroChina's low-sulphur petroleum coke in north-east China saw steadily rising prices due to low inventory and active just-in-time procurement from downstream enterprises. Prices at Sinopec's refineries were largely stable. Disruptions arose as typhoon-related impacts halted loading and unloading operations at Shandong ports during the week, obstructing the arrival and discharge of imported petroleum coke. Downstream enterprises were forced to turn to domestically produced coke, leading to a concentrated release of domestic substitution demand. This directly boosted trading activity for local refineries, driving transaction prices continuously higher. SMM's latest data showed that the north-east China 1# petroleum coke spot price index closed at 4,327.53 yuan/mt, up 0.88% WoW from last Thursday. The Shandong 2# petroleum coke spot price index closed at 4,190.07 yuan/mt (up 3.17% WoW from last Thursday), Shandong 3# petroleum coke spot price index at 3,767.26 yuan/mt (up 2.77% WoW from last Thursday), and Shandong 4# petroleum coke spot price index at 2,018.56 yuan/mt (up 8.06% WoW from last Thursday). As the typhoon impact faded, Shandong ports gradually resumed operations and expectations for imported supply replenishment strengthened, cooling trading sentiment in the domestic petroleum coke market. The spot market is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the near term. The coal tar pitch market consolidated on a subdued note this week. As of this Thursday, the average price of coal tar pitch was 4,868 yuan/mt, down 2.41% WoW from last Thursday. The price trend of coal tar, a raw material, weakened, and further downside room is expected in the near term. The operating rate at deep-processing enterprises continued to rise. Downstream prebaked anode operating rates fluctuated at highs, but buyers persistently pushed for lower prices, making only just-in-time procurement. Shipments of carbon black faced pressure, leaving raw material purchasing enthusiasm insufficient. The supply-demand pattern in the market is relatively loose, and the coal tar pitch market is expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the near term. Overall, cost support for prebaked anode remained relatively firm this week. Supply side: Prebaked anode enterprises are maintaining a production pace of producing based on sales. New anode projects in Xinjiang, Guangxi and other regions are being commissioned successively, continuously releasing new capacity. Meanwhile, some enterprises saw their operating rates pull back slightly due to maintenance. However, overall, the industry's supply capability has steadily improved, further enhancing supply elasticity. Demand side: China's operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing steady and rigid support for prebaked anode consumption. On the export front, new aluminum capacity in Indonesia continued to be commissioned, driving a MoM improvement in export orders for Chinese prebaked anodes to Southeast Asia. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat, and aluminum enterprises previously affected have begun to gradually resume production. This is expected to spur a recovery in anode procurement demand in the future. In summary, new supply of domestic prebaked anodes is being continuously realized, while high operating rates of downstream aluminum effectively underpin domestic demand. The export market is showing marginal improvement. Overall supply and demand for the industry remains stable, but as new capacity continues to be released, supply growth is slightly outpacing demand growth, leading to a more intense competitive landscape. Summary: The raw material market trends for China's prebaked anode industry clearly diverged this week: petroleum coke prices provided relatively strong support, while the decline in coal tar pitch prices exerted a limited drag on costs, resulting in an overall rise in comprehensive anode production costs. According to SMM monitoring, as of July 16, the cost of China's prebaked anode was 5,567.91 yuan/mt, up 1.28% WoW from last Thursday. Looking ahead, the cost support from the petroleum coke market remains relatively strong, while coal tar pitch prices are expected to consolidate on a weak note. Overall raw material support is moderate. In terms of supply and demand, high operating rates in China's aluminum industry support demand, and export orders are improving marginally. However, with the continued release of new capacity, industry competition will become increasingly intense. The fundamental pattern of supply growth slightly outpacing demand growth is likely to persist. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in the supply-demand pattern and price trends for prebaked anode and its upstream raw materials.