Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937.5/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the intraday moving average. After entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,945.5/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels before pulling back to a low of $1,932/mt. Before the close, it edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, and finally closed at $1,935.5/mt, down $3/mt, or 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/mt. After dipping to 16,550 yuan/mt in early trading, it rebounded and consolidated near the intraday moving average, finally closing at 16,595 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.21%. On the macro front: The fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in Beijing. The meeting voted to adopt the resolution on the government work report and reviewed and approved the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, charting the course for economic and social development over the next five years. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that although the February nonfarm payrolls report released last week came in weaker than expected, the mild pullback in initial jobless claims indicated that the scale of corporate layoffs remained limited, with employers still more inclined to retain workers. This eased market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labour market. After the data release, major US stock indexes maintained their declines, while energy stocks were among the few sectors that rose due to a sharp increase in oil prices. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. The center of SHFE lead moved further lower, and suppliers shipped in line with market conditions. In addition, with delivery approaching, some suppliers became less willing to sell, and quotations appeared somewhat firmer, with significantly fewer transactions at large discounts. Among them, ex-factory quotations in major primary lead producing areas were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, circulation of spot cargo in the secondary lead market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased under long-term contracts, with limited spot order replenishment, while some purchased as needed. Trading in the spot market was subdued on both sides. Inventory: As of March 12, LME lead inventory fell by 375 mt to 284,500 mt; as of March 12, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued its accumulation trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Approaching the weekend, operating rates at primary lead smelters in Hunan gradually resumed, though they had not yet returned to full production, and primary lead quotations in Hunan and Guangdong remained relatively firm. As the delivery date of the SHFE lead 2603 contract approached, suppliers were shifting inventory to delivery warehouses one after another, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to become more visible. With more imported lead arriving at ports and China refined lead supply gradually recovering, spot cargo in the spot market was relatively ample. Downstream enterprises had more procurement options, actively negotiated prices, and bought the dip. In the short term, the accumulation trend in social inventory of lead ingots is expected to be difficult to reverse, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: The SHFE/LME Price Ratio Continued to Weaken, and Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from overseas prices, and the backwardation structure was expected to persist in the short term. China was in a phase of high inventory + weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum was clearly weaker than that outside China. Amid diverging domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Alloy Prices Continued to Hover at Highs, While Market Demand Was Significantly Suppressed] This week, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued to rise, but the pace of demand follow-up was relatively slow. In the short term, raw material costs remained at high levels, providing strong support for ADC12 prices; however, if prices continue to rise, the suppressive effect of high prices on demand will become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, as operating rates gradually recover, there are also expectations of a mild increase on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on the pace of downstream order release, the pressure on the market from the supply recovery process, and the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. It touched a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, then the center moved lower to a low of $12,929/mt, and finally closed at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume came in at 17,000 lots, down 235 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 304,000 lots, up 279 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting an increase in bears' positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt at the open, then the center moved lower to a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume came in at 26,000 lots, down 62,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 189,000 lots, down 3,320 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting a reduction in bulls' positions overall.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke producers' profits were weak, coupled with the relatively small room for coal mines to offer concessions, which did not fully restore coke producers' profits. As a result, their willingness to increase output was low, and they maintained normal production. On the demand side, the Two Sessions are about to conclude, and steel mills that had previously imposed voluntary production restrictions are expected to resume production, which may increase demand for coke. However, due to the slow destocking speed of finished steel products, steel mills remained cautious toward coke and adopted a purchase-as-needed strategy. In summary, with steel mills purchasing cautiously and coke producers' cost downside room limited, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Affected by Macro Disturbances, LME Zinc Maintained Wide Swings] LME zinc opened at $3,316/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,331.50/mt, after which prices fell rapidly. It then rose and recovered the losses, but during European trading hours, as bears reduced open interest, LME zinc quickly dipped to $3,284/mt. In the night session, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, LME zinc gradually recouped the losses and returned to fluctuate above the average price line, finally closing down at $3,314.50/mt, down $1/mt, or 0.03%. Trading volume decreased to 82,887 lots, and open interest increased by 527 lots to 217,000 lots.

[Price Review] This week, silver prices continued to consolidate in a fluctuating range, but the war-driven rise in crude oil prices boosted US dollar demand again, putting pressure on precious metal prices and leaving the market relatively weak. Although during the week silver prices on the SGE tested the support level of 20,000 yuan/kg, and LBMA silver briefly fell below $80/oz, both later rebounded, indicating moderate support on the downside. This round of market movement was mainly affected by fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and the still-uncertain direction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Market participation in the silver market declined, and short-term fluctuations narrowed somewhat. Gold/silver ratio, both gold and silver prices showed a consolidating fluctuating trend this week, and the gold/silver ratio also fluctuated around 60. [Key Data] Bullish: US February seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls: -9.2, below expectations and the previous reading US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: -1.678 million, below expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US January retail sales MoM: -0.2%, above expectations and below the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: 382.4, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: The US Fed will announce its March interest rate decision and economic outlook, including the dot plot. The market generally expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and the probability of an interest rate cut has fallen to near zero. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the rate decision to elaborate on the policy stance. US-Iran situation: Since the large-scale military action launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict has lasted for more than two weeks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the highest level of combat readiness, and the Foreign Ministry explicitly ruled out the possibility of opening negotiations. The transmission effect through the energy channel (inflation) far exceeded that through other channels. Inflation concerns instead weighed on expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and the high-interest-rate environment pressured non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend amid the contest between macro disturbances and fundamentals. The continuing impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the short term has gradually been transmitted, while renewed strength in demand for the US dollar and US Treasuries, together with cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, will keep precious metal prices under pressure in the short term.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Continued to Consolidate at High Levels, with Cost Support and Demand Stalemate Persisting] This week, the overall magnesium industry chain continued to consolidate at high levels, with prices of all categories remaining largely stable. The raw material dolomite market operated steadily, with differentiated supply across regions but overall stability, while the procurement pace on the demand side remained steady. The magnesium ingot market remained in a supply and demand stalemate, as producers showed strong reluctance to sell, and low circulating inventory supported firm quotations. However, both domestic trade and foreign trade demand appeared weak, transactions were sluggish, and FOB quotations stayed at high levels, though actual deals were limited. The magnesium powder market remained stable with a firm tone, domestic trade demand continued to recover steadily, foreign trade growth was limited, and cost support remained in place. The magnesium alloy market's benchmark price held steady, processing fees remained firm, enterprise operating rates rebounded, and downstream demand gradually recovered, though the pace of growth slowed, with overall transactions remaining mild. Looking ahead, the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand is expected to continue, and the market may continue to consolidate at high levels.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Aluminum Prices Strengthened This Week, Rising Costs Drove Up ADC12 Prices

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,360 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly touched a high of 24,390 yuan/mt, then quickly fell to a low of 24,205 yuan/mt. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound and finally closed down at 24,240 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.25%. Trading volume decreased to 35,766 lots, while open interest increased by 1,359 lots to 74,085 lots.