Entering March, as the bullish sentiment in precious metal prices weakened, some lead smelters became less willing to obtain silver-bearing lead concentrates raw materials by paying lower TCs. Although lead concentrate TCs have yet to see a substantive rebound, smelters generally stated that it remained difficult for mainstream lead concentrate TC quotations to rise in March, but the phenomenon of transactions involving scrambling for ore at extremely low prices has disappeared. As the absolute level of silver prices can still enable smelters to obtain relatively substantial profits, in March smelters did not have expectations of negotiating downward the relevant payable indicator.

SMM News, March 6: This week, LME lead opened at around $1,962.0/mt. In early trading, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, it saw wide swings around $1,966/mt, hitting a high of $1,981.5/mt. As overseas geopolitical risks intensified, base metals broadly fell during the European session, and the center of LME lead moved down to around $1,943.5/mt, once dipping to the weekly low of $1,927/mt. Sentiment then recovered, and lead prices fluctuated upward but struggled to rebound, failing to break through resistance. It weakened again toward the close and finally settled at $1,948.5/mt, down $11/mt from the start of the week, a decline of about 0.56%. This week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at around 16,805 yuan/mt. Boosted by geopolitical factors, broad gains in the base metals sector drove lead prices to strengthen amid fluctuations, reaching a high of 17,020 yuan/mt. Subsequently, affected by weak supply and demand in the spot market, prices lacked support and pulled back amid fluctuations, dipping to 16,710 yuan/mt. Mid-week, it fluctuated rangebound around the daily moving average. It rebounded slightly toward the close but remained at low levels overall, finally settling at around 16,775 yuan/mt, down about 65 yuan/mt WoW, a decline of about 0.39%. > Subscribe to view SMM historical spot metal prices

This week, ferrous metals held up well within a narrow range. Over the weekend, turmoil in the Middle East and the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered wild swings in the international energy market, sending energy and precious metals sharply higher, while ferrous metals—except coking coal and coke—mostly retreated after rapid rise following the open; mid-week, although there were bullish expectations around the Two Sessions, no new news emerged, the steel market remained relatively stable, and the pattern of raw materials outperforming finished steel products continued; in the latter half of the week, the Two Sessions’ macro conclusions met expectations, but had already been priced in by futures earlier, and high-level fluctuations in international oil prices continued to support raw materials, in turn pushing ferrous metals to edge higher on a steady footing. In the spot market, in the second week after the holiday, the market gradually resumed work and resumed production, but with insufficient momentum from futures, overall willingness to purchase was not high, and transactions were mainly concluded at low prices......

[Frequent Supply Disruptions; Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC for SMM Zn50 domestic remained flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell by $8.37/dmt MoM to $15.38/dmt...

SMM Nickel News, March 6: Macro and Market Updates: (1) The central bank announced that, to keep liquidity in the banking system ample, on March 6, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct 800 billion yuan outright reverse repo operations via fixed-amount, interest-rate tender with multiple-price allotment. The tenor will be three months (91 days). (2) Amir Heydari, deputy commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said in an interview on the morning of the 5th local time that Iran had not actually closed the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that military and commercial vessels belonging to the US, Israel, and European countries and their supporters are strictly prohibited from transiting the waters; once discovered, they will be struck. Spot Market: On March 6, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestically mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) opened lower and then fluctuated upward, closing the morning session at 137,580 yuan/mt, up 0.65%. A rebound in the US dollar index put pressure on nonferrous metal prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuate upward trend, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract may trade in the 135,000-143,000 yuan/mt range.

Today, in North China, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 250–130 yuan/mt. The average premium/discount rose by 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average transaction price was 100,845 yuan/mt, down 455 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 89,120 yuan/mt. Early in the session, the center maintained a fluctuating downward trend, hit bottom at 88,620 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of 90,020 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 89,530 yuan/mt, down 0.41%. Open interest fell to 6,039 lots, down 89 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume fell to 4,556 lots, down 1,782 lots from the previous session. On the macro front, Iran said it was willing to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for a “satisfactory alternative” from the US, while also cracking down on separatist forces at home; meanwhile, the US military was reported to have begun preparations for actions against Iran that could last through September. Trump explicitly opposed Khamenei’s son succeeding as Supreme Leader and encouraged the Kurds to pressure Iran, saying that although Iran was trying to seek an agreement, it had missed its chance. The escalation in the Middle East again pushed risk-off sentiment higher, the US dollar index strengthened again, and this was bearish for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, imported supply continued to arrive, and with domestic social inventory at a high level, overall market circulating supply remained ample. Demand side, enterprises resumed work and production, and together with the pullback in copper prices, downstream purchase willingness continued to recover. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 101,050 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 89,530 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 101,169 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was -119 yuan/mt. The spread remained in backwardation and narrowed somewhat from the previous day.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overseas ADC12 Prices Surged to USD 3,200, with Import Losses Expanding Sharply] In the overnight session, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract in the night session moved downwards after a higher opening and fluctuated downward. After opening at 23,295 yuan/mt, it rose to 23,420 yuan/mt, then continued to pull back, dipping to a low of 23,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,170 yuan/mt in late trading, down 1.07% from the previous close. Open interest continued to decline, with bulls clearly reducing positions; trading volume edged up, and the price center moved lower.

SMM News on March 6: From February 27, 2026 to March 6, 2026, the weekly operating rate of SMM secondary lead across four provinces was 27.12%, down 2.6 percentage points WoW. Most smelters in Anhui had yet to resume production, while smelters in Henan cut production due to tight raw material supply; workers at smelters in Jiangsu returned to work after the Lantern Festival, and the operating rate increased by about 5 percentage points this week; the operating rate in Inner Mongolia was flat WoW. Affected by factors including environmental protection requirements during the Two Sessions, tight raw material supply, and weak downstream demand, secondary lead smelters’ production resumptions were concentrated at month-end March, and SMM expected relatively small fluctuations in the operating rate next week. > Subscribe to view SMM historical metal spot prices

DCE iron ore held up well today and dropped back slightly before the close. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 772 yuan/mt, up 1.38% from the previous trading session. The spot price rose 10-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, while steel mills made fewer inquiries. Spot trading sentiment was subdued. According to SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 major ports nationwide stood at 154.8 million mt, down 590,000 mt MoM, indicating a slight destocking trend. Over the same period, the daily average port pick-up volume rebounded to 2.55 million mt, up 145,000 mt MoM, suggesting a faster pace of port shipments. Demand improved slightly. The core logic supporting iron ore prices is gradually shifting from macro demand to structural contradictions on the supply side. Market concerns over structural shortages of certain mainstream mid- to high-grade ore types are fermenting, and these expectations have strengthened bullish sentiment, providing solid bottom support for prices. Looking ahead, the market is expected to see a tug-of-war between supply and demand in the short term. On the one hand, based on the production schedule, enforcement of blast furnace maintenance is expected to strengthen next week, which will create a phased restraint on immediate iron ore consumption. Against this backdrop of weaker demand, the aforementioned structural tightness on the supply side may be temporarily less apparent. However, once this round of concentrated maintenance ends and blast furnaces resume production as planned, iron ore demand is set to warm up in the short term. Driven by a rebound in demand, the structural shortage contradiction on the supply side will quickly stand out as the market’s main trading logic, and iron ore prices are expected to, overall, hold up well at that time.