SMM News, March 10: Dealers in Hunan reported that end-use consumption in the e-bike lead-acid battery market was average. After retailers restocked following the holiday, battery sales pulled back somewhat. Current battery inventory is maintained at around half a month, and the wholesale price of the main 48V20Ah model is 400 yuan/set. Manufacturers in Jiangxi reported that demand in the electric lead-acid battery market improved in March. In addition, dealers restocked as usual after the holiday, and finished product orders rebounded significantly compared with February. At present, the operating rate of factory production lines is around 80, with raw material lead mainly procured through long-term contracts. Manufacturers in Zhejiang reported that replacement demand in the electric lead-acid battery market improved relatively, with dealers making purchases based on demand. The current factory operating rate has recovered to above 80. In addition, lead prices lacked upward momentum, and spot supply in circulation was ample, so recent procurement has basically been on a buy-as-needed basis.

SMM News, March 10: Replacement demand in the automotive battery market was moderate. After the holiday, dealers restocked based on demand. The operating rate of production lines at some medium and large enterprises had recovered to 70-90%, with a few even approaching full capacity. However, export-oriented enterprises among them had weak orders, and production was basically based on sales, while procurement of raw material lead was also relatively cautious.

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[SMM Tin Morning Update: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuated and Rebounded in the Night Session, Returning Above the 390,000 Threshold]

SMM Analysis: According to SMM, the operating rate of China's copper foil enterprises was 84.26% in February 2026, down 4.3 percentage points MoM and up 16.61 percentage points YoY...

SMM News on March 9: Dealers in Zhejiang reported a relative improvement in end-use consumption in the automotive lead-acid battery market, mainly due to post-holiday restocking by retailers. Battery inventory declined accordingly, while lead prices struggled to rise, and wholesale prices in the battery market have not seen significant changes for the time being; for example, the mainstream model 6-QW-45Ah was at 200-220 yuan/unit. Manufacturers in Hebei reported that after the holiday, dealers restocked as needed, and automotive lead-acid battery orders improved in March. In addition, factory staff have basically returned to work, and the current operating rate has exceeded 90%. Raw material lead is mainly procured under long-term contract. Manufacturers in Jiangxi reported that domestic demand in the automotive lead-acid battery market improved, while on the export side, affected by the SHFE/LME price ratio for lead, tariffs, and Middle East ocean shipping, export orders remained sluggish, and the current operating rate is maintained at 70-80%.

On March 9, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price was flat WoW from last Friday.

As of March 9, SMM recorded total social inventory of copper cathode in major regions of China at 578,900 mt, up 1,700 mt from last week and up 70,400 mt from February 24, reaching a historical high. Over the same period, spot premiums for SMM #1 copper cathode gradually recovered from premium -260 yuan/mt on February 27 to parity on March 10. Overall, this upswing in spot premiums was mainly driven by the approach of delivery, under which the contango price spread between nearby and next-month contracts stayed around 300 yuan/mt; suppliers held prices firm and withheld sales, while about half of the material was converted into warrants and locked in, jointly tightening circulating supply. Observing the inventory accumulation pace, from the week of March 2 to March 9, inventories in three key regions increased by 14,400 tons, a growth of 2.65%. This marks a significant slowdown compared to the average weekly increase of approximately 45,000 tons during the period from February 5 to February 26. The deceleration in inventory buildup provided room for improvement in premiums. Current inventory accumulation primarily stems from two factors: First, the continued arrival of imported copper. According to SMM research, a substantial volume of imported copper continues to arrive recently, and it is expected that arrivals will not see a significant decline in March. The steady inflow of imported materials provides a continuous supply supplement to the domestic market and is a crucial support for maintaining high total inventory levels. The actual situation of imported arrivals in April remains to be confirmed, requiring close attention to customs data at month-end and changes in port clearance pace. Second, some cargoes are being delivered into bonded/warehouse warrant stocks. According to the electrolytic copper spot purchasing and selling sentiment indices for the Shanghai region recorded by SMM, the purchasing sentiment index rose from 2.08 on February 24 to 2.78 on March 10, while the selling sentiment index increased from 2.09 to 2.90 over the same period. Some downstream players have limited acceptance of current copper prices, maintaining a procurement strategy focused on immediate needs, resulting in selling sentiment slightly outpacing purchasing sentiment. Based on SMM's communications with enterprises: Upstream Producer 1: Recent consumption is relatively good, with daily sales around 2,000 tons. Upstream Producer 2: Currently produced electrolytic copper is primarily for export. Domestic inventories are low, so there's no rush to sell. Unwilling to sell when discounts are excessive. Trader 1: Quotations in the Changzhou market are higher than in Shanghai, mainly because locally available circulating cargoes are mostly warrants. Under the current spread structure, holders have high flexibility in selling – they can choose to sell or hold. Trader 2: The market is not short of supply; there are still a large number of warrants in warehouses awaiting digestion. However, due to the delivery mechanism, the incentive to sell depends on the premium level. Only when the premium exceeds the cost of capital will there be a strong willingness to liquidate. Downstream User 1: Recent orders are relatively robust. When copper prices fell on March 9, we already replenished inventories at the low point. Current raw material inventory can sustain operations until March 15. There are no immediate plans for further procurement; subsequent needs will primarily be met through long-term contract drawdowns. Downstream User 2: The recent spot premium has been quite firm, mainly due to the spread between months. Without such a high monthly spread, the premium would definitely not reach this level. In summary, this round of recovery in spot premiums is driven by multiple factors: First, the approach of delivery and the widening monthly spread strengthened holders' willingness to support prices. With delivery approaching, the Contango spread between months remains around 300 yuan/ton. Holders are underpinning prices, reluctant to sell, and strongly inclined to deliver stocks into warrants. Second, the inventory structure further amplified the tightness of available circulating supply. Taking Jiangsu as an example, out of 118,000 tons of social inventory, 94,000 tons were futures warrants. This portion is locked in delivery warehouses, making it difficult to form effective supply in the short term, leading to a phase of relative tightness in spot market circulating cargoes. According to SMM, some downstream companies in Jiangsu struggled to source materials in the market and opted to procure using the SMM Flat Copper Price average as a benchmark with minor adjustments. Third, the comprehensive resumption of work by downstream enterprises released procurement demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream processing enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai entered a full resumption phase. Surveys indicate that companies in the battery materials sector maintain high operating rates. Copper foil processors reported that downstream battery manufacturers sustain high operating rates, with March production schedules already showing characteristics of the peak season. Copper tube companies, supported by peak season stocking from the air conditioning industry, have operating rates exceeding pre-holiday levels. Although the recovery pace in the wire & cable and copper rod sectors is relatively slow, overall procurement demand has significantly improved compared to the first week after the holiday. Fourth, the decline in copper prices activated downstream restocking intentions. Recently, Shanghai copper futures prices retreated somewhat, stimulating downstream enterprises to purchase at dips. Previously suppressed by high copper prices, downstream players mostly maintained a cautious just-in-time procurement strategy, resulting in generally low raw material inventory levels. After the price pullback, some companies took the opportunity to replenish stocks, boosting spot transaction activity.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Geopolitical Risks in the Middle East Cool Significantly; Aluminum Prices to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Overall, from a macro perspective, easing geopolitical risks and the continued buildup of domestic social inventory have created bearish pressure on aluminum prices. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unclear; if the conflict persists, expectations for a tightening of global aluminum supply are strong, and aluminum prices still have solid upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are still expected to hold up well.

On March 9, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price was flat WoW from last Friday.