[China Iron Ore Brief: Iron Ore Concentrates Prices in Tangshan Had Some Room to Move Higher] Iron ore concentrates prices in Tangshan were relatively stable this week, with the ex-factory prices of 66-grade dry-basis, tax-included iron ore concentrates at 970-980 yuan/mt. As the important meeting was about to close, the impact of environmental protection and safety inspections gradually weakened, and some mines and beneficiation plants showed stronger willingness to produce, though overall iron ore concentrates resources remained relatively tight. According to SMM tracking, after the meeting ended, some mines and beneficiation plants that had suspended production earlier

According to the latest data from the General Administration of China Customs (GACC), China's total iron ore imports for January and February 2023 reached 211 million tonnes, with a cumulative value of approximately US$9.89 billion. The average import price across these two months was US$101.3 per tonne , a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. An analysis by month shows January imports totalled 110.35 million tonnes, representing a 7.77% decrease from the previous month but a 13.59% increase year-on-year. February imports were 99.67 million tonnes , down 9.68% month-on-month, yet showing a 5.80% increase year-on-year. The decline in import volumes is primarily attributed to frequent weather-related disruptions in key supplying nations like Australia and Brazil, which adversely affected mine-to-port rail networks and port loading operations, causing a temporary downturn in overseas shipments. Concurrently, operational activity at major domestic ports slowed during the Chinese New Year holiday, impacting the efficiency of vessel unloading, cargo warehousing, and customs clearance procedures. These combined factors contributed to the reduction in import scale during the first two months of 2023. Looking ahead to March, iron ore imports are forecast to experience a month-on-month rebound. This is anticipated due to shipping disruptions in the Middle East, caused by a partial blockade in the Strait of Hormuz , which may lead some vessels to be rerouted to China , thereby boosting import figures. Furthermore, weather-related logistical constraints are expected to ease, allowing shipments from producing countries to normalise. Finally, as March marks the end of the first quarter , some mining companies may increase their shipment volumes to meet quarterly targets, which would further support a recovery in import levels.

[China Iron Ore Brief: Iron Ore Concentrates Prices in West Liaoning May Have Room to Move Higher] Trading sentiment in the domestic ore market in west Liaoning was relatively cautious, with the ex-factory prices of 66-grade iron ore concentrates, wet basis and excluding tax, at 715-720 yuan/mt. Affected by safety and environmental protection inspections, local iron ore concentrates saw capacity utilization rates remain at relatively low levels, with overall resources tight, boosting sentiment among producers holding cargoes, while overall wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong. Demand side, local steel mills mostly maintained normal production as planned

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Geopolitical Disruptions Dominate, Aluminum Prices Remain Elevated]

Dalian iron ore fluctuated upward today, with the most-traded contract I2605 finally closing at 787.5 yuan/mt, up 0.90% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, spot prices rose 2-3 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotations, while steel mills made inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were sluggish. An SMM tracking survey showed that the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills was 85.99% this week, while daily average hot metal production reached 2.3514 million mt, down 36,400 mt WoW. Multiple steel mills in Hebei underwent concentrated maintenance due to safety and environmental protection inspections, and the maintenance cycles were relatively short. Therefore, the decline in iron ore demand was more pronounced this week. Looking ahead, given that maintenance cycles for most blast furnaces were relatively short, the intensity of maintenance is expected to gradually ease in the later stage, and daily average hot metal production is expected to rebound quickly, with iron ore demand likely to improve next week. Overall, iron ore is likely to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Alloy Prices Continued to Hover at Highs, While Market Demand Was Significantly Suppressed] This week, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued to rise, but the pace of demand follow-up was relatively slow. In the short term, raw material costs remained at high levels, providing strong support for ADC12 prices; however, if prices continue to rise, the suppressive effect of high prices on demand will become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, as operating rates gradually recover, there are also expectations of a mild increase on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on the pace of downstream order release, the pressure on the market from the supply recovery process, and the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Affected by Macro Disturbances, LME Zinc Maintained Wide Swings] LME zinc opened at $3,316/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,331.50/mt, after which prices fell rapidly. It then rose and recovered the losses, but during European trading hours, as bears reduced open interest, LME zinc quickly dipped to $3,284/mt. In the night session, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, LME zinc gradually recouped the losses and returned to fluctuate above the average price line, finally closing down at $3,314.50/mt, down $1/mt, or 0.03%. Trading volume decreased to 82,887 lots, and open interest increased by 527 lots to 217,000 lots.

[Price Review] This week, silver prices continued to consolidate in a fluctuating range, but the war-driven rise in crude oil prices boosted US dollar demand again, putting pressure on precious metal prices and leaving the market relatively weak. Although during the week silver prices on the SGE tested the support level of 20,000 yuan/kg, and LBMA silver briefly fell below $80/oz, both later rebounded, indicating moderate support on the downside. This round of market movement was mainly affected by fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and the still-uncertain direction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Market participation in the silver market declined, and short-term fluctuations narrowed somewhat. Gold/silver ratio, both gold and silver prices showed a consolidating fluctuating trend this week, and the gold/silver ratio also fluctuated around 60. [Key Data] Bullish: US February seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls: -9.2, below expectations and the previous reading US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: -1.678 million, below expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US January retail sales MoM: -0.2%, above expectations and below the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: 382.4, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: The US Fed will announce its March interest rate decision and economic outlook, including the dot plot. The market generally expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and the probability of an interest rate cut has fallen to near zero. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the rate decision to elaborate on the policy stance. US-Iran situation: Since the large-scale military action launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict has lasted for more than two weeks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the highest level of combat readiness, and the Foreign Ministry explicitly ruled out the possibility of opening negotiations. The transmission effect through the energy channel (inflation) far exceeded that through other channels. Inflation concerns instead weighed on expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and the high-interest-rate environment pressured non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend amid the contest between macro disturbances and fundamentals. The continuing impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the short term has gradually been transmitted, while renewed strength in demand for the US dollar and US Treasuries, together with cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, will keep precious metal prices under pressure in the short term.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke producers' profits were weak, coupled with the relatively small room for coal mines to offer concessions, which did not fully restore coke producers' profits. As a result, their willingness to increase output was low, and they maintained normal production. On the demand side, the Two Sessions are about to conclude, and steel mills that had previously imposed voluntary production restrictions are expected to resume production, which may increase demand for coke. However, due to the slow destocking speed of finished steel products, steel mills remained cautious toward coke and adopted a purchase-as-needed strategy. In summary, with steel mills purchasing cautiously and coke producers' cost downside room limited, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. It touched a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, then the center moved lower to a low of $12,929/mt, and finally closed at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume came in at 17,000 lots, down 235 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 304,000 lots, up 279 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting an increase in bears' positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt at the open, then the center moved lower to a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume came in at 26,000 lots, down 62,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 189,000 lots, down 3,320 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting a reduction in bulls' positions overall.