[SMM Daily Review: Back-and-Forth Negotiations Between Upstream and Downstream Continued; Tight Supply of High Nickel Unit Cargoes Sustained Premiums] News on March 5: The upstream sentiment factor for SMM high-grade NPI was 2.88, up 0.01 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.37, up 0.05 MoM.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fluctuate Rangebound; Bullish Sentiment for Spot Stainless Steel Set Back SMM News on March 4: SS futures showed a fluctuate upward trend, overall fluctuating rangebound with limited upside momentum, and closed at 14,205 yuan/mt before noon. In the spot market, affected by factors including weakening momentum for further upside in SS futures, unchanged guidance prices from major mainstream stainless steel mills yesterday, a sharp increase in expected stainless steel production schedules within the month, and the buildup of social inventory, bullish sentiment was set back and quotes loosened. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated downward. At 10:30 a.m., SS2604 was quoted at 14,245 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 275-475 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally stable; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was stable while the average price in Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were stable; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes rose by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable. The stainless steel market is gradually recovering, and SS futures strengthened and moved higher. Driven by warming expectations for the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April” and the continued fermentation of news on Indonesian nickel ore, market participants’ bullish sentiment was strong. However, the recovery pace on the spot side was slow. Some traders and downstream end-users have not yet resumed operations, market trading activity has not fully recovered, and only a small number of rigid-demand orders were concluded during the week, presenting a clear pattern of “strong futures, weak spot.” On the inventory side, ...

[SMM Daily Review: The Market Was Mainly Driven by Rigid-Demand Restocking, and High-Grade NPI Prices Held Steady] News on March 3: The upstream sentiment factor for SMM high-grade NPI was 2.86, up 0.01 MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.29, up 0.01 MoM.

[SMM Tin Morning Update: SHFE Tin Prices Opened Slightly Higher in the Night Session and Then Consolidated at High Levels; As Prices Rebounded, Spot Cargo Transactions Gradually Cooled]

NBS data showed that in February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a pullback in the manufacturing sector’s prosperity level. In February, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector’s prosperity level. In February, the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that overall production and business activities of enterprises in China slowed down from the previous month. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Sector Survey Center, interpreted China’s PMI for February 2026. Performance of China’s PMI in February 2026 I. Performance of China’s Manufacturing PMI In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a pullback in the manufacturing sector’s prosperity level. By enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and above the threshold; the PMIs for medium- and small-sized enterprises were 47.5% and 44.8%, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, respectively, and below the threshold. By sub-index, among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new orders index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. The production index was 49.6%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing production activities slowed down. The new orders index was 48.6%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the prosperity of market demand in the manufacturing sector. The raw material inventory index was 47.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the decline in inventories of major raw materials in the manufacturing sector narrowed slightly. The employment index was 48.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight pullback in the employment prosperity of manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery time index was 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that delivery times of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing sector slowed compared with the previous month. II. Performance of China’s Non-Manufacturing PMI In February, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector’s prosperity level. By industry, the construction business activity index was 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the services business activity index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of service industries, the business activity indices for industries such as accommodation, catering, and culture/sports/entertainment were all in a high prosperity range above 60.0%; the business activity indices for industries such as capital market services and real estate were all below the threshold. The new orders index was 45.2%, down 0.9 percentage points MoM, indicating a pull back in non-manufacturing market demand. By industry, the new orders index for the construction industry was 42.2%, up 2.1 percentage points MoM; the new orders index for the services industry was 45.7%, down 1.4 percentage points MoM. The input prices index was 50.9%, up 0.9 percentage points MoM, indicating an overall increase in the price level of inputs used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business operations. By industry, the input prices index for the construction industry was 49.1%, down 2.9 percentage points MoM; the input prices index for the services industry was 51.2%, up 1.5 percentage points MoM. The selling price index was 48.8%, unchanged from the previous month and still below the threshold, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing selling prices was lower than in the previous month. By industry, the selling price index for the construction industry was 47.6%, down 0.6 percentage points MoM; the selling price index for the services industry was 49.0%, up 0.1 percentage points MoM. The employment index was 46.0%, down 0.1 percentage points MoM, indicating a slight pull back in the employment prosperity of non-manufacturing enterprises. By industry, the employment index for the construction industry was 42.5%, up 1.4 percentage points MoM; the employment index for the services industry was 46.6%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM. The business activity expectations index was 55.0%, down 1.0 percentage point MoM and still in a relatively high prosperity range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises remained confident in market development. By industry, the business activity expectations index for the construction industry was 50.9%, up 1.1 percentage points MoM; the business activity expectations index for the services industry was 55.8%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM. III. Performance of China’s Composite PMI Output Index In February, the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating that overall production and business activities of enterprises in China slowed down compared with the previous month. In February, the manufacturing PMI pulled back, while the non-manufacturing business activity index rebounded slightly. —Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Survey Center, interprets China’s PMI for February 2026 On March 4, 2026, the NBS Service Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China’s PMI. In this regard, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), provided an interpretation. In February, affected by factors such as the Chinese New Year holiday, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, down 0.3 percentage points MoM; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5, up 0.1 percentage points MoM; and the composite PMI output index was 49.5, down 0.3 percentage points MoM. I. The Manufacturing PMI Pulled Back In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, with the prosperity level down from the previous month. Judging from historical data, the PMI in the month that includes the Chinese New Year mostly shows some fluctuations. In particular, this year’s Chinese New Year holiday was extended and fell entirely in mid-to-late February, which had some impact on enterprises’ production and operations, and overall market activity in manufacturing declined. (1) Both supply and demand slowed down. The production index and the new orders index were 49.6 and 48.6, down 1.0 and 0.6 percentage points MoM, respectively, indicating a pullback in manufacturing production and market demand. By industry, the production index and new orders index for industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing and computers, communications and electronic equipment were both above the critical point, with supply and demand prosperity remaining in expansion; in industries such as textiles, apparel and accessories and automobiles, both indices remained below the critical point, with weak market activity. (2) The PMI for large enterprises continued to expand. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.5, up 1.2 percentage points MoM, with production and operations remaining in expansion; small and medium-sized enterprises were more affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, with PMIs of 47.5 and 44.8 this month, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points MoM, respectively, and their prosperity levels pulled back. (3) Growth momentum in high-tech manufacturing continued to emerge. The high-tech manufacturing PMI was 51.5, remaining in expansion territory and significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level, indicating a favorable development trend in related industries; the consumer goods industry PMI was 48.8, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, with a rebound in the prosperity level; the PMIs for equipment manufacturing and high energy-consuming industries were 49.8 and 47.8, down 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points MoM, respectively, with their prosperity levels pulling back. (4) Enterprise expectations improved. The index of expectations for production and business activities was 53.2, up 0.6 percentage points MoM, indicating that manufacturing enterprises’ confidence in market development after the Chinese New Year strengthened. By industry, the index of expectations for production and business activities in industries such as general equipment and railway, ship, aerospace and aviation equipment was above 56.0, in a relatively high prosperity range, and related enterprises were more optimistic about near-term industry development. II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Edged Up Slightly In February, the non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating some improvement in the overall prosperity level of the non-manufacturing sector. (I) The service sector’s prosperity level rebounded. The service sector business activity index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. By industry, driven by the Chinese New Year holiday effect, business volumes grew relatively quickly in industries related to residents’ travel and consumption; among them, the business activity indices for accommodation, catering, and culture, sports and entertainment all remained in the high-prosperity range above 60.0%, while those for retail and air transport rose to above 52.0%. Meanwhile, the business activity indices for capital market services and real estate remained at low levels, with subdued market activity. From the perspective of market expectations, the service sector business activity expectations index was 55.8%, remaining in a relatively high-prosperity range, indicating that service sector enterprises remained optimistic about near-term market developments. (II) The construction sector’s prosperity level declined. Affected by factors such as employees of enterprises returning to their hometowns in large numbers during the Chinese New Year holiday and the suspension of construction at some projects, the construction sector business activity index fell to 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, and the construction sector’s prosperity level continued to pull back. From the perspective of market expectations, the construction sector business activity expectations index was 50.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning above the threshold, indicating that construction sector enterprises’ confidence in future industry development had somewhat recovered. III. Composite PMI Output Index Pulled Back In February, the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that overall production and business activities of enterprises in China slowed down somewhat MoM. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 49.6% and 49.5%, respectively.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,549/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $49,819/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 85-86, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 91. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,910/mt Ni.

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

February 2026 coincided with the Chinese New Year holiday. Affected by holiday factors, production pace across core segments of China’s sodium-ion battery industry generally slowed, showing an “off-season reset” trend. From cathodes, anodes, and electrolyte to battery cells and end-users, production across all segments declined MoM to varying degrees, while YoY still maintained a certain degree of growth resilience.

[smm stainless steel daily review] geopolitical boost and cost support drive ss futures higher, spot stainless steel prices follow with a positive outlook smm march 2 news, ss futures fluctuated upward. influenced by the escalation of middle eastern geopolitical conflicts over the weekend, precious metals and crude oil-related futures rose first, followed by non-ferrous metals, with ss futures also strengthening, closing at 14,385 yuan/mt. in the spot market, driven by the strong performance of ss futures and the further increase in high-grade npi raw material prices, spot stainless steel quotations have risen; however, due to insufficient downstream end-user operations, overall purchasing attitudes remain cautious. despite this, under the multiple benefits of cost support, expectations for the peak "golden march and silver april" season, and recent increases in futures, traders generally hold an optimistic view of the future. the most-traded ss futures contract strengthened and probed higher. at 10:30 am, ss2604 was quoted at 14,160 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. in wuxi, the spot premiums and discounts for 304/2b were in the range of 360-560 yuan/mt. in the spot market, wuxi cold-rolled 201/2b coils remained stable; the average price of wuxi cold-rolled 304/2b coils with trimmed edges increased by 50 yuan/mt, and foshan's average price also rose by 50 yuan/mt; wuxi cold-rolled 316l/2b coils increased by 200 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316l/no.1 coils in wuxi rose by 300 yuan/mt; both wuxi and foshan cold-rolled 430/2b coils remained stable. the stainless steel market is gradually recovering, with ss futures strengthening and probing higher, fueled by rising expectations for the traditional "golden march and silver april" consumption peak and indonesian nickel ore...

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, and 441# silicon was at 9,200-9,500 yuan/mt. Yesterday afternoon, silicon metal futures prices fluctuated sharply due to macro disruptions; the most-traded contract fell below 8,200 yuan/mt at its low and closed at 8,205 yuan/mt in late trading. Some silicon enterprises in northern China lowered their quoted prices, but they still did not match the price advantage of spot-futures traders, and downstream users mainly bought the dip. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 46-53 yuan/kg, the polysilicon price index was 49.17 yuan/kg, and polysilicon prices have declined significantly recently, mainly due to pressure from wafer price cuts and the impact of related meetings. At present, as the wafer segment has yet to stop falling, market sentiment is weak, and there may still be some downside room going forward.