SMM Nickel News, March 16: Macro and Market News: (1) The financial statistics report for February released by the central bank showed that at month-end February, broad money (M2) balance stood at 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; cumulative aggregate social financing for the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans in the first two months increased by 5.61 trillion yuan; the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 345.72 trillion yuan, up 8.8% YoY; and the month-end RMB deposit balance was 337.94 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. (2) The central bank said in its tender announcement for open-market outright reverse repo operations that on March 16, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through a fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, and multiple-price allocation method, with a tenor of six months (182 days). Spot Market: On March 16, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 2,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,700 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream branded electrodeposited nickel was at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fell sharply intraday and closed the morning session at 135,990 yuan/mt, down 1.83%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the industry-level support logic has not changed, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products remain. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially quote against the 2604 contract. In terms of market structure, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts was in the range of 110 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and with the import window wide open, expectations for continued inflows of cargo from outside China strengthened, putting spot premiums under pressure. Demand side, although copper prices pulled back again below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises did not improve significantly. Intraday trading was light on both buying and selling sides, and at current price levels, end-users still maintained wait-and-see sentiment toward the subsequent price trend, with procurement turning cautious. Supply side, SMM recorded social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt from the previous period, but the absolute level remained high. Coupled with stronger import expectations, overall supply pressure still persisted. Overall, with the contract rollover completed and import expectations strengthening, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, and discounts may widen further.

[SMM Daily Review: Cost Support Met Cooling Downstream Prices, Putting Pressure on High-Grade NPI Prices] March 16 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.89, down 0.03 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.63, down 0.09 MoM.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in January-February, China’s real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential investment was 728.2 billion yuan, down 10.7%, with the decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points. In January-February, the floor space of buildings under construction by real estate development enterprises nationwide was 5.3537 billion m², down 11.7% YoY. Of this total, residential floor space under construction was 3.7135 billion m², down 11.9%. The floor space of buildings newly started was 50.84 million m², down 23.1%. Of this total, residential floor space newly started was 36.95 million m², down 23.3%. The floor space of buildings completed was 63.2 million m², down 27.9%. Of this total, residential floor space completed was 46.25 million m², down 26.9%. I. Completion of Real Estate Development Investment In January-February, China’s real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% YoY (calculated on a comparable basis; see Note 5 for details), with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential investment was 728.2 billion yuan, down 10.7%, with the decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points. In January-February, the floor space of buildings under construction by real estate development enterprises was 5.3537 billion m², down 11.7% YoY. Of this total, residential floor space under construction was 3.7135 billion m², down 11.9%. The floor space of buildings newly started was 50.84 million m², down 23.1%. Of this total, residential floor space newly started was 36.95 million m², down 23.3%. The floor space of buildings completed was 63.2 million m², down 27.9%. Of this total, residential floor space completed was 46.25 million m², down 26.9%. II. Sales of Newly Built Commercial Buildings and Pending Sale Status In January-February, the floor space of newly built commercial buildings sold was 92.93 million m², down 13.5% YoY, with the decline widening by 4.8 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential sales floor space fell 15.9%. Sales of newly built commercial buildings amounted to 818.6 billion yuan, down 20.2%, with the decline widening by 7.6 percentage points; of which, residential sales value fell 21.8%. At month-end February, the floor space of commercial buildings pending sale was 799.98 million m², up 0.1% YoY, with the growth rate pulling back by 1.5 percentage points from year-end 2025. Of this total, the floor space pending sale for less than three years was 606.16 million m², down 1.6%. III. Funding Sources of Real Estate Development Enterprises In January-February, funds in place for real estate development enterprises totaled 1,304.7 billion yuan, down 16.5% YoY. Of this total, China domestic loans stood at 257 billion yuan, down 13.9%; self-raised funds were 493.9 billion yuan, down 5.9%; deposits and advance receipts were 358.9 billion yuan, down 21.5%; and individual mortgage loans were 112.8 billion yuan, down 41.9%.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fell Back as Steel Mill Price Adjustments Dampened Downstream Buying Interest SMM News, March 16: SS futures showed a downward pullback. Although the contract was relatively stable during Friday's night session, Monday's open was dragged lower by a broad decline across the nonferrous metals sector, with SS also pulling back to close at 14,185 yuan/mt by midday. In the spot market, affected by the decline in SS futures and an overall cut of 200 yuan/mt in the morning guidance prices from a major stainless steel mill, retail quotations in the market edged lower. Price fluctuations fueled stronger wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers, and intraday transactions were weak. However, market feedback indicated that transactions had been broadly steady earlier, and coupled with relatively strong expectations for the cost side of stainless steel, most market participants had not expected this round of price cuts. Traders' spot quotations fell by less than the reduction in the guidance price. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back after falling. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,045 yuan/mt, down 230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for Wuxi 304/2B were in the range of 245-445 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally stable; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt and the average price in Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coils were stable; Wuxi quotations for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were stable; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also stable. As the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April" begins, the stainless steel market is entering a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually resu...

Among them, the Gulf region was an important consumer market for China in the Middle East: China’s exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to Saudi Arabia reached 42,500 mt, and aluminum foil 58,000 mt; exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to the UAE reached 103,500 mt, and aluminum foil 93,800 mt; the other four countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman) accounted for combined exports of about 22,000 mt of aluminum plate/sheet and strip and about 11,000 mt of aluminum foil.

In early March 2026, Qatalum—the 648,000-tonne-per-year primary aluminum smelter in Qatar, a 50/50 joint venture between Norsk Hydro and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company initiated a controlled shutdown of production. The decision, effective from March 3, followed a warning from gas supplier QatarEnergy that natural gas deliveries would be fully suspended due to disruptions linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, including attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

Ouyang Minggao pointed out that large-scale mass production of all-solid-state batteries will still require 3–5 years, with test vehicles expected to appear by the end of 2026. Sulphide electrolyte has fallen from 20 million/mt to the million-level range. However, he stressed that the technical difficulty is extremely high and advised consumers that they “need not wait,” as LFP batteries remain the “ballast stone” at present.

We all know the relationship between Gold and US Dollars in the financial markets. When the USD rises, gold tends to fall and vice versa. It sounds simple to you, right? But understanding why this happens, and how to actually trade it like a pro trader, takes more than knowing that the pattern exists.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Geopolitical Premiums Persist, Aluminum Prices Remained Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and was expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China, meanwhile, was in a phase of high inventory plus weak spot fundamentals, with upward momentum clearly weaker than outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to remain fluctuating at highs in the short term.