[Industrial Silicon Prices Fluctuated; Polysilicon Price Sentiment Was Weak]: This week, the silicon metal market fluctuated significantly on news, falling first and then rising. As of March 5, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, with the transaction center moving down WoW; some suppliers quoted at 9,200 yuan/mt. The futures market fell first and then rose, with large fluctuations; amid disruptions from news such as expectations for Xinjiang electricity prices and environmental protection, futures prices recovered from the bottom. As futures prices rose, trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market raised their quotes accordingly; silicon enterprises held quotes steady or increased them by 100 yuan/mt. Low-priced supply in the market shifted from spot-futures to silicon enterprises, and downstream users purchased as needed, selecting lower-priced offers.

This week, ferrous metals held up well within a narrow range. Over the weekend, turmoil in the Middle East and the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered wild swings in the international energy market, sending energy and precious metals sharply higher, while ferrous metals—except coking coal and coke—mostly retreated after rapid rise following the open; mid-week, although there were bullish expectations around the Two Sessions, no new news emerged, the steel market remained relatively stable, and the pattern of raw materials outperforming finished steel products continued; in the latter half of the week, the Two Sessions’ macro conclusions met expectations, but had already been priced in by futures earlier, and high-level fluctuations in international oil prices continued to support raw materials, in turn pushing ferrous metals to edge higher on a steady footing. In the spot market, in the second week after the holiday, the market gradually resumed work and resumed production, but with insufficient momentum from futures, overall willingness to purchase was not high, and transactions were mainly concluded at low prices......

SMM News, March 6: This week, LME lead opened at around $1,962.0/mt. In early trading, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, it saw wide swings around $1,966/mt, hitting a high of $1,981.5/mt. As overseas geopolitical risks intensified, base metals broadly fell during the European session, and the center of LME lead moved down to around $1,943.5/mt, once dipping to the weekly low of $1,927/mt. Sentiment then recovered, and lead prices fluctuated upward but struggled to rebound, failing to break through resistance. It weakened again toward the close and finally settled at $1,948.5/mt, down $11/mt from the start of the week, a decline of about 0.56%. This week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at around 16,805 yuan/mt. Boosted by geopolitical factors, broad gains in the base metals sector drove lead prices to strengthen amid fluctuations, reaching a high of 17,020 yuan/mt. Subsequently, affected by weak supply and demand in the spot market, prices lacked support and pulled back amid fluctuations, dipping to 16,710 yuan/mt. Mid-week, it fluctuated rangebound around the daily moving average. It rebounded slightly toward the close but remained at low levels overall, finally settling at around 16,775 yuan/mt, down about 65 yuan/mt WoW, a decline of about 0.39%. > Subscribe to view SMM historical spot metal prices

[Frequent Supply Disruptions; Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC for SMM Zn50 domestic remained flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell by $8.37/dmt MoM to $15.38/dmt...

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overseas ADC12 Prices Surged to USD 3,200, with Import Losses Expanding Sharply] In the overnight session, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract in the night session moved downwards after a higher opening and fluctuated downward. After opening at 23,295 yuan/mt, it rose to 23,420 yuan/mt, then continued to pull back, dipping to a low of 23,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,170 yuan/mt in late trading, down 1.07% from the previous close. Open interest continued to decline, with bulls clearly reducing positions; trading volume edged up, and the price center moved lower.

[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, losses at coke producers have widened, dampening their production incentives. Coke supply is expected to tighten slightly, but coke producers are seeing inventory buildup, and supply remains loose for now. Demand side, the Two Sessions have already convened, and some steel mills have already carried out blast furnace maintenance; the daily average hot metal output has declined, weakening rigid demand for coke. Meanwhile, after the first round of coke price cuts, steel mill profits remain poor, and they still intend to push for lower prices. Overall, the coke market may be generally stable with slight fall and in the doldrums; after the first round of proposed cuts, expectations remain for a second round of price cuts.

SMM News on March 6: This week, secondary lead premiums showed clear regional divergence, with parity prevailing overall, and most suppliers refusing to ship at a discount; only some cargoes in South China and Central China were offered at a discount of 100-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In terms of profits, scrap battery prices stayed firm, making it difficult for smelters to reduce costs, and industry losses continued. As of March 6, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -330 yuan/mt, and -543 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (by-product revenue in the model excluded tin and antimony). Looking into next week, SMM expected supply tightness in raw materials to persist, leading the secondary lead operating rate to maintain its downward trend; under loss pressure, suppliers were likely to narrow discounts or keep parity offers, while downstream battery producers still made just-in-time procurement on a wait-and-see basis, resulting in relatively light market transactions. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

Entering March, as the bullish sentiment in precious metal prices weakened, some lead smelters became less willing to obtain silver-bearing lead concentrates raw materials by paying lower TCs. Although lead concentrate TCs have yet to see a substantive rebound, smelters generally stated that it remained difficult for mainstream lead concentrate TC quotations to rise in March, but the phenomenon of transactions involving scrambling for ore at extremely low prices has disappeared. As the absolute level of silver prices can still enable smelters to obtain relatively substantial profits, in March smelters did not have expectations of negotiating downward the relevant payable indicator.

[Spot Discounts Widened During the Week; Watch Next Week’s Recovery]: This week, spot discounts in Shanghai stayed at low levels, with the weekly average price up 5 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, standard domestic brands were at a discount of 70 to 60 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 0 to 30 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract..

Nickel prices came under pressure and pulled back this week. Early in the week, rumors of tighter approvals for RKAB on the Indonesian ore side spurred the futures market to rally briefly, but it later retreated as US Fed officials repeatedly delivered hawkish remarks, the US dollar index held above 106, and global risk assets came under broad pressure. With tensions in the Middle East rising, macro risk-off sentiment strengthened, and nickel prices on SHFE and LME corrected notably. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract closed at 137,140 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.6% on the week. The LME nickel 3M contract fluctuated between $17,000-17,900/mt this week, with a weekly decline of 2%. In the spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 140,600 yuan/mt, down 2,150 yuan/mt WoW. The weekly average Jinchuan nickel premium was 6,900 yuan/mt, down 1,100 yuan/mt versus the week before Chinese New Year. Premiums for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400-400 yuan/mt. After nickel prices fell this week, downstream restocking driven by rigid demand became more evident, and overall spot nickel plate shipments increased WoW. On the macro front, US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest rise since November 2025 and above the market expectation of 50,000, weakening expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, US January PCE and core PCE inflation data rose above expectations, and the US dollar index rebounded, creating short-term pressure on base metal prices. Geopolitical tensions continued to escalate this week, with Iran announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, posing a potential threat to the sulfur supply chain. Domestically, the Two Sessions emphasized medium and long-term benefits from national defense spending, improving expectations for alloy demand in sectors such as defense industry and shipbuilding, which supported nickel alloy consumption. Inventory: Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was about 85,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 8,000 mt WoW. Nickel prices are currently in a stalemate, with firmer cost support but unchanged near-term pressure. Tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas and tight nickel ore supply provided strong support for nickel prices, but levels above 140,000 yuan/mt faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core expected trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt.