Spot lithium carbonate prices showed a continuous decline and pulled back from highs this week. The futures market performed weakly, with the most-traded LC2609 contract price range fluctuating downward from 187,600-193,900 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 175,200-184,100 yuan/mt, hitting a mid-week low of 175,200 yuan/mt, down approximately 5.8% for the week. Open interest first increased then decreased, and market sentiment was bearish. Market transactions showed a distinct "active on declines" pattern, with downstream purchasing enthusiasm rising as prices pulled back. Upstream lithium chemical plants held strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, with a widespread wait-for-rebound mentality. However, some enterprises that had hedged at earlier highs increased spot order shipments to downstream buyers. Downstream material plants saw sustained active downstream inquiries and purchases as prices continued to fall, initially focused on just-in-need restocking; as prices dropped further, purchase willingness grew increasingly strong, and restocking and stockpiling willingness gradually improved. Traders saw significant destocking due to large-scale downstream purchases. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions became more active after price declines, showing a "buy on dips, watch on rallies" pattern. Supply side, multiple changes emerged, with production slightly decreasing but longer-term supply expectations increasing. Lithium carbonate production decreased slightly this week, mainly due to spodumene production line maintenance. In terms of inventory changes, as upstream lithium chemical plants continued to increase the volume of hedging-related registered warrants, combined with increased direct sales of lithium carbonate from lithium chemical plants to downstream buyers, upstream inventory showed a slight destocking trend this week. On longer-term supply, Mineral Resources Limited (MinRes) announced it would restart its wholly-owned Bald Hill lithium mine due to a significant and sustained rebound in lithium prices, with mining and crushing expected in June, first concentrates output in July, and the first shipment in Q1 FY2027. The expectation of incremental longer-term supply weighed on market sentiment. Import and export data indicated continued and growing ex-China replenishment. According to customs statistics, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and up 15% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to April reached 116,000 mt, up 47% YoY. Lithium sulfate imports in April were 17,942 mt, up 9% MoM and up 296% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to April reached 58,900 mt, up 121% YoY, reflecting increased processing trade activity and exerting some pressure on short-term prices. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to hover at highs. Supply side, key variables going forward include the progress of mining license renewals in Jiangxi, the pace of Zimbabwean concentrates arriving at ports, and the restart progress of the Bald Hill and Finniss lithium mines. Demand side, close attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the actual volume increase in restocking and stockpiling. Short-term lithium prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend within the 180,000-190,000 yuan/mt range. It is recommended to closely monitor further changes in warrant volumes and actual progress in ore production resumptions.

[SMM Analysis] Demand Resilience Persists at Tail End of Peak Season, Stainless Steel Social Inventory Continues Destocking On May 21, SMM reported that stainless steel social inventory continued its mild destocking trend this week. Total inventory across the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan pulled back slightly, dropping from 947,100 mt on May 14, 2026 to 939,200 mt on May 21, down 0.83% WoW, sustaining a mild destocking pattern. Stainless steel market prices were overall in the doldrums this week. Against the backdrop of declining prices, traders generally felt weak market conditions, and wait-and-see sentiment intensified. However, end-use demand demonstrated strong resilience. The market is still at the tail end of the traditional peak consumption season, and downstream end-user just-in-time procurement transactions remained generally stable, without concentrated purchasing halts due to weakening futures or subdued market sentiment, continuously supporting the digestion of market supplies. Meanwhile, steel mill agents proactively cut prices and actively pushed shipments, accelerating the depletion of circulating market supplies. Multiple factors jointly drove stainless steel social inventory to pull back slightly further this week. Overall, sustained release of end-user just-in-time procurement combined with proactive shipments from steel mills jointly dominated the mild destocking trend in inventory this week. Currently, stainless steel mills still maintain reasonable profit margins with strong production willingness, and overall production is expected to stay high, with sustained pressure on the market supply side. As the traditional peak consumption season gradually draws to a close, downstream consumption is about to enter the off-season, and subsequent demand pullback will exert notable pressure on continued inventory destocking. In the short term, inventory is expected to continue its mild destocking trend, but the degree of destocking will most likely slow down gradually. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream just-in-time procurement, steel mill production schedules and delivery pace, peak season...

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Amid Multiple Factors, Wait-and-See Sentiment Intensifies in Mid- and Downstream Silicone Market] This week, the transaction center of China's silicone DMC market held stable, with the mainstream transaction range at 14,800-15,000 yuan/mt. Regional quotations, mainstream quotations from monomer enterprises in Shandong remained at 14,800 yuan/mt, while mainstream quotations in other regions held at 15,000-15,200 yuan/mt. Influenced by the price adjustment moves of top-tier players last week, overall market sentiment weakened somewhat, with wait-and-see sentiment among mid- and downstream enterprises on the increase, new order transactions remaining mediocre, and the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream intensifying.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Geopolitical Risk Trajectory Remains Uncertain, Destocking Provides Limited Support for Aluminum Prices]

On May 21, 2026, Dalian iron ore futures weakened today. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 789.5 yuan/mt, down 1.07% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 4-8 yuan from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices; steel mill purchases were mostly driven by rigid demand; overall spot market transactions were thin. Currently, fundamentals remained relatively stable, with rigid demand for iron ore holding at high levels. According to SMM statistics, total inventories of ten ports stood at 109.87 million mt, down 1 million mt WoW. Among them, PB lumps and Jimblebar fines showed a good destocking trend, while Mac and Newman super special fines continued inventory buildup. On the macro front, as US Treasury yields rose, the market was generally pessimistic about expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, creating resistance for ore prices. In the short term, ore prices may remain in the doldrums under the influence of macro factors.

SMM News Flash: [India] Indian SAE1006 HRC export offers to Vietnam increased by 10 USD/tonne to around 590 USD/tonne CFR for June shipments. Market participants reported that two Indian-origin cargoes were concluded at an average of 580 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam over the past two weeks, indicating improving buyer acceptance. Regional market sentiment showed signs of stabilization, with buying interest from Vietnam gradually recovering.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coke enterprises still maintained profits with overall stable production, primarily focused on active shipments. However, downstream purchase enthusiasm declined, and coke inventory at some coke enterprises accumulated. Demand side, daily average hot metal production at steel mills remained at high levels, sustaining rigid demand for coke. However, steel prices fluctuated downward, steel mill profits contracted, and suppressed steel mills' production enthusiasm. In summary, the tight fundamentals of coke eased somewhat, and finished steel prices were under pressure. Steel mills showed low willingness to accept the fourth round of coke price increase, and the coke market may operate steadily in the short term.

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Market Weakness Hard to Reverse, Overall Expectations Pessimistic] May 21, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market fluctuated slightly...

[SMM Daily Comment: Tightening Supply Expectations Heated Up, Steel Scrap Price Decline Restrained NPI Price Gains] May 21 — The SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.12, up 0.02 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 2.08, down 0.04 MoM.

Rumored NPI production cuts at one of Indonesia's largest nickel hubs reveal a deeper structural shift — and a stark gap in per-megawatt-hour returns between aluminum and nickel.