This week, the lead-acid battery market basically resumed normal trading. After logistics recovered, dealers gradually restocked as needed. Both the e-bike and automotive battery markets showed post-holiday restocking momentum, but lead prices struggled to rise, and selling prices in the battery wholesale market remained unchanged for the time being. In addition, on the producer side, lead-acid battery enterprises gradually resumed lead ingot procurement after the holiday. However, due to lead ingots stored before the holiday or long-term contract pre-sales, downstream enterprises had limited short-term replenishment purchases of spot orders, and the improvement in trading activity in the spot lead market was also limited.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include China’s February CPI y/y, the US February non-seasonally adjusted CPI y/y, the US January core PCE price index y/y, and the preliminary US March one-year inflation expectations; meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, with unchanged impacts on maritime shipping and energy supply, while a surge in oil prices has hit interest rate cut expectations, and US Treasury traders have increasingly expected that the US Fed will not cut interest rates this year. In addition, on March 6, SHFE officially announced the passage of the revision plan for lead futures contracts, with secondary lead substitutes at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to deliverable-grade material. LME lead, overseas geopolitical issues have mixed bullish and bearish impacts on the lead market: on the one hand, hindered transportation and rising energy prices such as natural gas have pushed up smelting cost, and lead-acid battery exports have also been constrained by transportation restrictions; on the other hand, there is the impact of damage to the economic environment. In addition, overseas lead inventory has remained elevated after surging by more than 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year period, leaving lead prices under pressure. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,930-1,990/mt next week. SHFE lead, in March, both domestic lead ingot supply and demand increased, and with imported lead supplementing supply, the destocking speed of lead ingots has been slow, leaving insufficient momentum for lead prices to rise. The secondary lead segment is currently in a loss-making state, and some smelters have slowed the pace of resuming production, providing support for lead prices. In addition, next week is the week before delivery for the SHFE lead 2603 contract, and suppliers will transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouse; expectations of a cumulative increase in visible inventory may weigh on lead prices. Overall, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,600-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-16,700 yuan/mt. Demand side, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises rose, and their lead ingot purchases will rise accordingly, with more expectations of purchasing as needed. Supply side, primary lead smelters’ production was steady to slightly higher, and market circulating supply was ample; however, considering the factor of shipping to delivery warehouse, this may ease suppliers’ pressure to make shipments, keeping spot discounts stable, while secondary refined lead smelters have resumed work at a slightly slower pace and, amid losses, secondary refined lead smelters will hold prices firm in shipments, with limited widening of discounts.

SMM News on March 6: This week, secondary lead premiums showed clear regional divergence, with parity prevailing overall, and most suppliers refusing to ship at a discount; only some cargoes in South China and Central China were offered at a discount of 100-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In terms of profits, scrap battery prices stayed firm, making it difficult for smelters to reduce costs, and industry losses continued. As of March 6, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -330 yuan/mt, and -543 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (by-product revenue in the model excluded tin and antimony). Looking into next week, SMM expected supply tightness in raw materials to persist, leading the secondary lead operating rate to maintain its downward trend; under loss pressure, suppliers were likely to narrow discounts or keep parity offers, while downstream battery producers still made just-in-time procurement on a wait-and-see basis, resulting in relatively light market transactions. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

In the spot market, during this week (March 2, 2026–March 6, 2026), post-holiday social inventory of primary lead continued a slight upward trend. Downstream buyers still mainly picked up goods under long-term contracts and worked down pre-holiday inventory, and overall spot transactions remained sluggish. This week, refined lead supply in Henan increased steadily, with suppliers concluding deals at a discount of 230 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract or at a discount of 50–0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In Hunan, smelter supply had not yet fully recovered, suppliers’ offers were relatively firm, and spot transactions were at a slight premium of 0–30 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price.

Entering March, as the bullish sentiment in precious metal prices weakened, some lead smelters became less willing to obtain silver-bearing lead concentrates raw materials by paying lower TCs. Although lead concentrate TCs have yet to see a substantive rebound, smelters generally stated that it remained difficult for mainstream lead concentrate TC quotations to rise in March, but the phenomenon of transactions involving scrambling for ore at extremely low prices has disappeared. As the absolute level of silver prices can still enable smelters to obtain relatively substantial profits, in March smelters did not have expectations of negotiating downward the relevant payable indicator.

It was learned that as of March 5, in-factory inventory of primary lead’s major delivery brands stood at 40,600 mt, down 7,700 mt WoW. This week, some primary lead smelters gradually resumed operations after maintenance, and supply increased WoW. Meanwhile, lead consumption recovered, and downstream enterprises purchased as needed, driving smelters’ in-factory inventory lower. In addition, as some downstream enterprises still held a certain amount of pre-holiday lead inventory, replenishment via spot orders was limited, resulting in relatively slow inventory drawdowns at smelters. Market participants should watch subsequent delivery-related inventory transfers by suppliers to help shift pressure away from in-factory inventory.

SMM News, March 6: This week, LME lead opened at around $1,962.0/mt. In early trading, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, it saw wide swings around $1,966/mt, hitting a high of $1,981.5/mt. As overseas geopolitical risks intensified, base metals broadly fell during the European session, and the center of LME lead moved down to around $1,943.5/mt, once dipping to the weekly low of $1,927/mt. Sentiment then recovered, and lead prices fluctuated upward but struggled to rebound, failing to break through resistance. It weakened again toward the close and finally settled at $1,948.5/mt, down $11/mt from the start of the week, a decline of about 0.56%. This week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at around 16,805 yuan/mt. Boosted by geopolitical factors, broad gains in the base metals sector drove lead prices to strengthen amid fluctuations, reaching a high of 17,020 yuan/mt. Subsequently, affected by weak supply and demand in the spot market, prices lacked support and pulled back amid fluctuations, dipping to 16,710 yuan/mt. Mid-week, it fluctuated rangebound around the daily moving average. It rebounded slightly toward the close but remained at low levels overall, finally settling at around 16,775 yuan/mt, down about 65 yuan/mt WoW, a decline of about 0.39%. > Subscribe to view SMM historical spot metal prices

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Mixed Macro News, Lead Prices Continued to Consolidate] Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report: China’s 2026 economic growth target was 4.5%–5%, with the deficit ratio at around 4%. At present, the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday on the domestic market has largely dissipated, except that maintenance at some lead smelters has yet to resume…

SMM News on March 6: From February 27, 2026 to March 6, 2026, the weekly operating rate of SMM secondary lead across four provinces was 27.12%, down 2.6 percentage points WoW. Most smelters in Anhui had yet to resume production, while smelters in Henan cut production due to tight raw material supply; workers at smelters in Jiangsu returned to work after the Lantern Festival, and the operating rate increased by about 5 percentage points this week; the operating rate in Inner Mongolia was flat WoW. Affected by factors including environmental protection requirements during the Two Sessions, tight raw material supply, and weak downstream demand, secondary lead smelters’ production resumptions were concentrated at month-end March, and SMM expected relatively small fluctuations in the operating rate next week. > Subscribe to view SMM historical metal spot prices

[SMM Lead Morning Update: Weak Macro Conditions and Mediocre Fundamentals; Lead Prices Remain Range-Bound] SMM, March 6: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,960.5/mt. With bearish macro factors continuing to weigh on the market, LME lead fluctuated downward throughout the day......