Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to France and hold the sixth round of China-U.S. economic and trade consultations with the U.S. side from March 14 to 17. Regarding the U.S. plan to launch a Section 301 investigation into China and other economies, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce explicitly stated that China reserves the right to take all necessary measures and will resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.

In the spot market, this week (March 09, 2026-March 13, 2026), supply in the refined lead spot market gradually resumed, and imported lead ingots continued to enter the market, leaving ample spot cargo available in circulation. Downstream inventory was digested slowly, with only limited just-in-time procurement. This week, mainstream transaction prices for primary lead in Henan still traded at slight discounts to the SMM #1 lead average price. Although some traders held prices firm and were reluctant to sell, downstream buyers actively negotiated prices, making transactions at premiums relatively difficult. Supply in Hunan recovered slowly, but remained relatively tight, with smelters and suppliers quoting premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and transactions were concluded mainly on rigid demand. This week, the overall fundamentals of the lead spot market remained weak, downstream consumption and stockpiling enthusiasm were poor, and overall spot order transactions were sluggish.

This week, lead smelters still indicated that lead concentrate TCs had yet to see a substantive rebound. However, market quotes for silver-bearing lead concentrates with negative TCs had already decreased significantly. Smelters generally remained on the sidelines and purchased cautiously. Coupled with weak fundamentals in the refined lead market, smelters showed low willingness to stock up on raw materials. Silver prices fluctuated within a range and consolidated. After bullish sentiment cooled, apart from slight reductions in the highest quotes for certain silver concentrates or high-silver lead ore with silver content above 2,000 g/mt in physical content, the payable indicator for silver in lead concentrates with other silver content levels generally remained stable.

This week (March 06, 2026–March 12, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 56.97, up 4.11 percentage points WoW from the previous week after the Spring Festival. This week, smelters in Henan maintained stable production. In Hunan, the smelter that resumed operations at the end of last week’s maintenance raised output as scheduled this week, while some smelters in the region had yet to fully recover and are expected to return to normal production next week; in Yunnan, smelters only slightly increased output this week after resuming production, and some small-scale smelters had yet to resume production.

SMM News, March 6: This week, LME lead opened at $1,940/mt. Early in the session, affected by the rapid fading of geopolitical safe-haven sentiment and broad weakness across the nonferrous metals sector, lead prices fluctuated downward and once fell to $1,927.5/mt. Subsequently, market sentiment somewhat recovered, and lead prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,949/mt. As bullish momentum weakened, prices turned weaker again and finally closed at $1,933/mt, down $13/mt from the beginning of the week, a decline of about 0.67%. This week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at around 16,780 yuan/mt, and early-session lead prices climbed to 16,815 yuan/mt. Subsequently, affected by both weak supply and weak demand in the spot market, prices fluctuated downward. During the session, lead prices rebounded slightly, but bearish strength remained strong, and the price center moved lower again. Near the close, after consolidating at lows, lead prices fell to 16,550 yuan/mt and finally closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, down about 220 yuan/mt from the beginning of the week, a decline of about 1.31%. 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

Recently, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market remained relatively stable, with dealers basically purchasing as needed. Meanwhile, lead prices fluctuated downward, and some dealers were concerned that battery selling prices would follow the decline. In addition, as April to May is the traditional consumption off-season, dealers were also relatively cautious in procurement, and lead-acid battery enterprises produced based on sales. In terms of lead ingot procurement, spot cargo circulating in the lead market is currently relatively ample, and downstream enterprises purchased as needed. It was not until the second half of the week, when lead prices fell further, that some enterprises restocked at lower prices as needed, and trading activity in the spot market improved.

Next week, the US Fed will announce its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections, and the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged. On the macro data front, key releases will include China's total retail sales YoY from January to February, China's industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size YoY from January to February, and the US February PPI YoY. In addition, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to France from March 14 to 17 for economic and trade consultations with the US side. LME lead, markets outside China continue to be affected by developments in the Middle East, including rising natural gas prices and hindered battery transportation, constraining both the supply and demand sides of lead. Meanwhile, China's lead ingot import window opened further, attracting overseas lead ingots into the Chinese market. In Southeast Asia, for example, spot lead circulation declined and premiums rose, which may provide some support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,900-1,960/mt next week. SHFE lead, as the SHFE lead 2603 contract nears delivery, suppliers have been shifting inventory and shipping to delivery warehouse, leading to a continued increase in visible lead ingot inventory. Together with growing arrivals of imported lead, this dragged the overall price center lower. At the same time, losses in secondary lead widened, and many smelters cut production or postponed the resumption of operations, while smelters' in-factory inventory declined. In the short term, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. After the bearish impact of inventory buildup from delivery warehouse shipments is fully absorbed, attention should be paid to the possibility of lead prices stabilizing. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,400-16,850 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,650 yuan/mt. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises maintained stable production, and as lead prices fell, producers will gradually buy the dip. Supply side, production at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises is gradually recovering, while inventory pressure from enterprises' in-factory inventory eased. In addition, given the prominent losses in secondary lead, even with supplementary imported crude lead, spot discounts for primary lead and secondary lead are unlikely to widen further and may instead narrow as lead prices weaken.

It was learned that the weekly composite operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises across five provinces tracked by SMM stood at 73.45% from March 6 to March 12, 2026, up 1.78 percentage points WoW from the previous week. In March, major lead-acid battery enterprises basically resumed normal production. The last batch of enterprises that resumed work in early March also recently completed production ramp-up on their production lines, with operating rates of 80-100% at medium and large enterprises and 50-80% at small enterprises. At present, most orders for e-bike and automotive battery enterprises came from dealers' routine post-Chinese New Year restocking, but actual improvement in end-use market consumption remained limited. Among them, battery exports were affected by factors such as tariffs, the SHFE/LME price ratio, and transportation, and export-oriented enterprises saw weak order performance. In addition, orders for ESS battery enterprises were moderate, especially tender orders from data centers, and the production lines of such enterprises were operating at full capacity.

SMM News, Mar 12: The most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at around 16,605 yuan/mt during the day. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within the 16,570-16,610 yuan/mt range. Bears then turned aggressive, dragging lead prices down to 16,550 yuan/mt. During the session, lead prices fluctuated and rebounded, touching a high of 16,630 yuan/mt. As downstream enterprises only made bargain-hunting purchases at low prices, mainly for rigid demand, and lacked momentum for concentrated restocking, support from the consumption side was insufficient. Lead prices pulled back again toward the close and finally settled at 16,555 yuan/mt. A full-bodied bearish candlestick was recorded, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.36. As China's refined lead supply gradually recovered and more imported lead arrivals reached ports, spot cargo available in circulation remained ample, weakening sellers' bargaining power. Ahead of SHFE lead delivery, inventory was transferred to warehouses, while social inventory continued to accumulate, further capping room for a price rebound. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM News, March 13: This week, finished product inventories of secondary lead destocked significantly, standing at 26,600 mt as of March 12, down 13,100 mt from March 5. The main reasons were: the resumption progress of secondary lead smelters was slow, raw material inventories at downstream battery enterprises were depleted, and demand for cargo pick-up under long-term contracts increased. In addition, starting next week, the release of capacity at two large smelters in east China will somewhat ease the tight regional supply of secondary lead; however, as high raw material prices led suppliers of secondary lead to hold prices firm, downstream purchase willingness for spot orders remained weak. Secondary lead finished product inventories are expected to return to a supply-demand balance level next week, with a lower probability of unilateral wild swings. 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices