Market reports on March 3, 2026, indicate that the ongoing conflict in the Gulf region has caused a significant spike in ocean freight rates. This is particularly affecting the landed cost of iron ore and HRC (Hot Rolled Coil) for sensitive destinations. While mine-side prices remain stable, the rising cost of logistics is beginning to squeeze margins for international steel traders.

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fluctuate Rangebound; Bullish Sentiment for Spot Stainless Steel Set Back SMM News on March 4: SS futures showed a fluctuate upward trend, overall fluctuating rangebound with limited upside momentum, and closed at 14,205 yuan/mt before noon. In the spot market, affected by factors including weakening momentum for further upside in SS futures, unchanged guidance prices from major mainstream stainless steel mills yesterday, a sharp increase in expected stainless steel production schedules within the month, and the buildup of social inventory, bullish sentiment was set back and quotes loosened. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated downward. At 10:30 a.m., SS2604 was quoted at 14,245 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 275-475 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally stable; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was stable while the average price in Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were stable; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes rose by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable. The stainless steel market is gradually recovering, and SS futures strengthened and moved higher. Driven by warming expectations for the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April” and the continued fermentation of news on Indonesian nickel ore, market participants’ bullish sentiment was strong. However, the recovery pace on the spot side was slow. Some traders and downstream end-users have not yet resumed operations, market trading activity has not fully recovered, and only a small number of rigid-demand orders were concluded during the week, presenting a clear pattern of “strong futures, weak spot.” On the inventory side, ...

This week, hot-rolled coil inventory in Zhangjiagang was 313,000 mt, up 9,000 mt WoW from pre-holiday levels, an increase of 2.96%; the YoY decline was 29.98% on a calendar-year basis and 29.82% on a lunar-calendar basis.

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - Gold's appeal as it draws support from the widening conflict in the Middle East is expected to ​remain intact even if some investors have favoured the dollar as their preferred safe haven, traders and analysts said.

On March 1, Shagang released its latest ex-factory price for hot-rolled steel. The specific details are as follows: the price of Q235B hot-rolled coil remained unchanged from the previous period. The current price of Q235B 5.75*1500*C hot-rolled coil is 3,500 yuan/mt. All adjustments include taxes and took effect starting from March 1, 2026. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, and 441# silicon was at 9,200-9,500 yuan/mt. Yesterday afternoon, silicon metal futures prices fluctuated sharply due to macro disruptions; the most-traded contract fell below 8,200 yuan/mt at its low and closed at 8,205 yuan/mt in late trading. Some silicon enterprises in northern China lowered their quoted prices, but they still did not match the price advantage of spot-futures traders, and downstream users mainly bought the dip. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 46-53 yuan/kg, the polysilicon price index was 49.17 yuan/kg, and polysilicon prices have declined significantly recently, mainly due to pressure from wafer price cuts and the impact of related meetings. At present, as the wafer segment has yet to stop falling, market sentiment is weak, and there may still be some downside room going forward.

[smm stainless steel daily review] geopolitical boost and cost support drive ss futures higher, spot stainless steel prices follow with a positive outlook smm march 2 news, ss futures fluctuated upward. influenced by the escalation of middle eastern geopolitical conflicts over the weekend, precious metals and crude oil-related futures rose first, followed by non-ferrous metals, with ss futures also strengthening, closing at 14,385 yuan/mt. in the spot market, driven by the strong performance of ss futures and the further increase in high-grade npi raw material prices, spot stainless steel quotations have risen; however, due to insufficient downstream end-user operations, overall purchasing attitudes remain cautious. despite this, under the multiple benefits of cost support, expectations for the peak "golden march and silver april" season, and recent increases in futures, traders generally hold an optimistic view of the future. the most-traded ss futures contract strengthened and probed higher. at 10:30 am, ss2604 was quoted at 14,160 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. in wuxi, the spot premiums and discounts for 304/2b were in the range of 360-560 yuan/mt. in the spot market, wuxi cold-rolled 201/2b coils remained stable; the average price of wuxi cold-rolled 304/2b coils with trimmed edges increased by 50 yuan/mt, and foshan's average price also rose by 50 yuan/mt; wuxi cold-rolled 316l/2b coils increased by 200 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316l/no.1 coils in wuxi rose by 300 yuan/mt; both wuxi and foshan cold-rolled 430/2b coils remained stable. the stainless steel market is gradually recovering, with ss futures strengthening and probing higher, fueled by rising expectations for the traditional "golden march and silver april" consumption peak and indonesian nickel ore...

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,146/mt and hit an early high of $13,153/mt. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower, dipping to $12,975/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,027.5/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume rose to 25,000 lots, and open interest to 306,000 lots, down 1,096 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,640 yuan/mt and climbed early to 102,080 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 101,200 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally settled at 101,700 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. Trading volume rose to 44,800 lots, and open interest to 195,000 lots, down 213 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 89,260 yuan/mt. Early in the session, the center moved lower and hit bottom at 88,740 yuan/mt, then the center rose all the way, touching a high of 90,860 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 90,220 yuan/mt, down 0.69%. Open interest rose to 5,896 lots, an increase of 88 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume rose to 8,845 lots, down 276 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, the situation in Iran continued to escalate, with intensified military maneuvering among parties, and the US Senate sought to limit Trump’s war powers; the market worried that tensions in the Middle East would further push up inflation expectations, driving the US dollar index to close higher, which was bearish for copper prices. In addition, high inflation expectations in the US weakened market expectations for further US Fed interest rate cuts, also weighing on copper prices. On the fundamentals, domestically produced copper and previously price-locked imported supplies continued to arrive, and overall market circulating supply remained ample. Demand side, consumption recovered, and purchase willingness continued to rebound. The SHFE copper 2604 contract settled at 101,660 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 90,220 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 101,949 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was -289 yuan/mt, with the spread remaining in backwardation and widening from the previous day.