This week, the lead-acid battery market basically resumed normal trading. After logistics recovered, dealers gradually restocked as needed. Both the e-bike and automotive battery markets showed post-holiday restocking momentum, but lead prices struggled to rise, and selling prices in the battery wholesale market remained unchanged for the time being. In addition, on the producer side, lead-acid battery enterprises gradually resumed lead ingot procurement after the holiday. However, due to lead ingots stored before the holiday or long-term contract pre-sales, downstream enterprises had limited short-term replenishment purchases of spot orders, and the improvement in trading activity in the spot lead market was also limited.

In the spot market, during this week (March 2, 2026–March 6, 2026), post-holiday social inventory of primary lead continued a slight upward trend. Downstream buyers still mainly picked up goods under long-term contracts and worked down pre-holiday inventory, and overall spot transactions remained sluggish. This week, refined lead supply in Henan increased steadily, with suppliers concluding deals at a discount of 230 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract or at a discount of 50–0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In Hunan, smelter supply had not yet fully recovered, suppliers’ offers were relatively firm, and spot transactions were at a slight premium of 0–30 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price.

[SMM Analysis]Macro Factors Drove, and Supply and Demand Gradually Recovered,ADC12 Prices Were Expected to Rise in March

[Prices Lack Upward Momentum; Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices May Temporarily Hold Steady Next Week] Steel mill production remained stable, with no significant production cuts or expansion. After the holiday, supplies gradually arrived in the market, and market supply was ample, with no pressure from resource shortages for the time being. Meanwhile, grain-oriented silicon steel has relatively high barriers in production processes, making supply-side rigidity relatively strong; coupled with the benchmark pricing role of leading steel mills, downside room for prices is limited.

In February 2026, the operating rate of secondary copper rod was 7.98%, above expectations of 7.46%, down 9.7 percentage points MoM and down 23.72 percentage points YoY. In February 2026, China’s secondary copper rod market, jointly driven by the Chinese New Year holiday and policy uncertainty, went through a full cyclical evolution of “pre-holiday volatility and positioning...

This week (February 27–March 5), the operating rate of SMM copper wire and cable enterprises was 60.9%, an increase of 33.17 percentage points MoM and up 3.79 percentage points from the second week after work resumption last year on a YoY basis. This week, wire and cable enterprises had basically fully resumed operations, and production continued to recover. Demand side, power grid orders placed in a concentrated manner before the holiday entered a concentrated delivery period, accelerating enterprises’ production pace. In addition, after the Lantern Festival, workers gradually returned to their posts, and engineering and market orders were also gradually released. Inventory side, driven by restocking on the copper price pullback and production preparation, enterprises’ raw material inventory increased 7.01% MoM; finished product inventories fell 5.7% MoM, mainly because downstream players resumed operations after the holiday and gradually began to pick up goods, accelerating the drawdown of finished product inventories. Looking ahead to next week, as downstream ordering and cargo pick-up progress accelerates and enterprises fully resume production, SMM expects the operating rate of copper wire and cable to increase 5.21 percentage points MoM to 66.1% next week (March 6–March 12).

It was learned that as of March 5, in-factory inventory of primary lead’s major delivery brands stood at 40,600 mt, down 7,700 mt WoW. This week, some primary lead smelters gradually resumed operations after maintenance, and supply increased WoW. Meanwhile, lead consumption recovered, and downstream enterprises purchased as needed, driving smelters’ in-factory inventory lower. In addition, as some downstream enterprises still held a certain amount of pre-holiday lead inventory, replenishment via spot orders was limited, resulting in relatively slow inventory drawdowns at smelters. Market participants should watch subsequent delivery-related inventory transfers by suppliers to help shift pressure away from in-factory inventory.

This week (February 27–March 5), the enamelled wire industry saw a strong post-holiday rebound, with the weekly operating rate rising sharply by 31.14 percentage points WoW to .....

[Downstream Held Some Raw Material Inventory; Trading Remained Weak During the Week]: This week, spot discounts in Ningbo widened, while the weekly average price was basically flat WoW. As of this Friday, spot prices in Ningbo against the 2604 contract were at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, and a premium of 30 yuan/mt against Shanghai. The premium against Shanghai fluctuated during the week.

[Frequent Supply Disruptions; Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC for SMM Zn50 domestic remained flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell by $8.37/dmt MoM to $15.38/dmt...