[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially quote against the 2604 contract. In terms of market structure, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts was in the range of 110 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and with the import window wide open, expectations for continued inflows of cargo from outside China strengthened, putting spot premiums under pressure. Demand side, although copper prices pulled back again below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises did not improve significantly. Intraday trading was light on both buying and selling sides, and at current price levels, end-users still maintained wait-and-see sentiment toward the subsequent price trend, with procurement turning cautious. Supply side, SMM recorded social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt from the previous period, but the absolute level remained high. Coupled with stronger import expectations, overall supply pressure still persisted. Overall, with the contract rollover completed and import expectations strengthening, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, and discounts may widen further.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,205 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly rose to a high of 24,255 yuan/mt, then bears added to their positions, sending SHFE zinc fluctuating downward all the way to a low of 24,070 yuan/mt near the close. It finally closed down at 24,080 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.25%, with trading volume falling to 37,382 lots and open interest increasing by 1,553 lots to 76,744 lots.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in January-February, China’s real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential investment was 728.2 billion yuan, down 10.7%, with the decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points. In January-February, the floor space of buildings under construction by real estate development enterprises nationwide was 5.3537 billion m², down 11.7% YoY. Of this total, residential floor space under construction was 3.7135 billion m², down 11.9%. The floor space of buildings newly started was 50.84 million m², down 23.1%. Of this total, residential floor space newly started was 36.95 million m², down 23.3%. The floor space of buildings completed was 63.2 million m², down 27.9%. Of this total, residential floor space completed was 46.25 million m², down 26.9%. I. Completion of Real Estate Development Investment In January-February, China’s real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% YoY (calculated on a comparable basis; see Note 5 for details), with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential investment was 728.2 billion yuan, down 10.7%, with the decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points. In January-February, the floor space of buildings under construction by real estate development enterprises was 5.3537 billion m², down 11.7% YoY. Of this total, residential floor space under construction was 3.7135 billion m², down 11.9%. The floor space of buildings newly started was 50.84 million m², down 23.1%. Of this total, residential floor space newly started was 36.95 million m², down 23.3%. The floor space of buildings completed was 63.2 million m², down 27.9%. Of this total, residential floor space completed was 46.25 million m², down 26.9%. II. Sales of Newly Built Commercial Buildings and Pending Sale Status In January-February, the floor space of newly built commercial buildings sold was 92.93 million m², down 13.5% YoY, with the decline widening by 4.8 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential sales floor space fell 15.9%. Sales of newly built commercial buildings amounted to 818.6 billion yuan, down 20.2%, with the decline widening by 7.6 percentage points; of which, residential sales value fell 21.8%. At month-end February, the floor space of commercial buildings pending sale was 799.98 million m², up 0.1% YoY, with the growth rate pulling back by 1.5 percentage points from year-end 2025. Of this total, the floor space pending sale for less than three years was 606.16 million m², down 1.6%. III. Funding Sources of Real Estate Development Enterprises In January-February, funds in place for real estate development enterprises totaled 1,304.7 billion yuan, down 16.5% YoY. Of this total, China domestic loans stood at 257 billion yuan, down 13.9%; self-raised funds were 493.9 billion yuan, down 5.9%; deposits and advance receipts were 358.9 billion yuan, down 21.5%; and individual mortgage loans were 112.8 billion yuan, down 41.9%.

Among them, the Gulf region was an important consumer market for China in the Middle East: China’s exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to Saudi Arabia reached 42,500 mt, and aluminum foil 58,000 mt; exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip to the UAE reached 103,500 mt, and aluminum foil 93,800 mt; the other four countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman) accounted for combined exports of about 22,000 mt of aluminum plate/sheet and strip and about 11,000 mt of aluminum foil.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US Dollar Strengthened, LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,315.5/mt. At the beginning of the session, bulls and bears were intertwined, and LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,316.5/mt. Subsequently, bulls reduced their open interest, and LME zinc fluctuated downward, touching a low of $3,270.5/mt during European trading hours. পরে, the center moved up slightly and fluctuated in consolidation along the daily average line, finally closing down at $3,293.5/mt, down $21/mt, or 0.63%. Trading volume fell to 7,065 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,630 lots to 215,000 lots.

Ouyang Minggao pointed out that large-scale mass production of all-solid-state batteries will still require 3–5 years, with test vehicles expected to appear by the end of 2026. Sulphide electrolyte has fallen from 20 million/mt to the million-level range. However, he stressed that the technical difficulty is extremely high and advised consumers that they “need not wait,” as LFP batteries remain the “ballast stone” at present.

In early March 2026, Qatalum—the 648,000-tonne-per-year primary aluminum smelter in Qatar, a 50/50 joint venture between Norsk Hydro and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company initiated a controlled shutdown of production. The decision, effective from March 3, followed a warning from gas supplier QatarEnergy that natural gas deliveries would be fully suspended due to disruptions linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, including attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

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[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Geopolitical Premiums Persist, Aluminum Prices Remained Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and was expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China, meanwhile, was in a phase of high inventory plus weak spot fundamentals, with upward momentum clearly weaker than outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to remain fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[China Oversupply Weighed on SHFE Zinc]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,250 yuan/mt. In early trading, bears added to open interest, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward all the way, falling to a low below 24,140 yuan/mt. Its center then slightly rebounded, and it finally closed down at 24,140 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt, or 0.66. Trading volume increased to 85,941 lots, while open interest rose by 2,465 lots to 75,191 lots.