[Zinc Fundamental Trading Logic Amid the Middle East Conflict: Risk Identification and Opportunity Capture] Global geopolitical conflicts have continued unabated, and news of the recent Middle East conflict has emerged frequently. What impact will this have on the zinc industry? This article provides an analysis from both fundamental and market perspectives:

Following review and deliberation, Baosteel hereby announces the adjustments to its domestic sales prices for April 2026 based on March 2026 (unless otherwise specified, all prices are tax-exclusive), as follows: I. Hot-rolled: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. II. Plate: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. III. Pickling: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. IV. Cold-rolled: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. V. Hot-dip galvanizing: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. VI. Electrogalvanization: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. VII. Al-Zn-Al-Mg (medium aluminum): Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. VIII. Al-Zn-Al-Mg (high aluminum): Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. IX. Aluzinc: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. X. Color-coated: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. XI. Non-oriented silicon steel: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. XII. Grain-oriented silicon steel: Unchanged. XIII. Seamless pipe: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. XIV. Welded pipe: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. XV. Wire rod: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. XVI. Bar: Base price raised by 200 yuan/mt. XVII. For adjustments to alloy surcharges as well as coating and plating surcharges, please refer to the April 2026 price list. XVIII. The above price adjustment notice shall take effect from the date of publication. XIX. The Marketing Center (Baosteel International) of Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. reserves the right of final interpretation of this price adjustment notice. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. Marketing Center (Baosteel International) March 9, 2026

According to SMM research, most galvanising enterprises resumed production between the tenth day (February 26) and the sixteenth day (March 4) of the first lunar month. Small and medium-sized enterprises generally resumed operations after the Lantern Festival (March 2), with an average holiday duration of around 21 days.

[SMM Titanium Weekly Review: Titanium Market Diverged Post-Holiday, Titanium Dioxide Led Gains While Titanium Products Steadily Recovered] This week, the titanium industry chain showed divergent performance. Titanium concentrate operated steadily, with mines awaiting new March orders. Sentiment for titanium dioxide price hikes remained strong, led by the chloride process; high sulphuric acid costs supported expectations for price increases, though actual implementation still depends on demand follow-through. Titanium slag was in the doldrums, under cost pressure, with prices consolidating at the bottom. Sponge titanium saw weak supply and demand, prices held steady, and future performance relies on downstream restocking to boost recovery. The titanium products market recovered steadily, mainly driven by rigid demand restocking, and is expected to stabilize next week.

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, the domestic alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. The 16 green electricity smart hydrogen production systems built by Shuangliang Group for ACME Group’s Oman green ammonia project with a daily output of 300 mt officially commenced shipment. Updates on electrolyzer projects: Xinjiang Hynda Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The EPC tender was released for an integrated production line project with an annual production of 120,000 mt of green hydrogen and 700,000 mt of green ammonia. It is understood that this project is the largest green ammonia producer in China in terms of both scale and production, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan. At present, company registration, project filing, and equipment selection have been completed. The preliminary site is in Wusu West Industrial Park, covering about 600-800 mu; the next step will be to accelerate project planning and design, EIA, energy assessment, safety assessment, and other pre-project procedures, striving to commence production and achieve results as early as possible. Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd. Xinjiang Jiangbei Petroleum Branch: The first public notice for the EIA information disclosure of the new construction project of the Kunlun Road integrated energy supply station in Karamay District was released. Construction location: opposite the bus company on Kunlun Road, Karamay District. Construction content: the project covers an area of 7,504.01 m², with a newly built station building of 390 m² and a canopy of 450 m²; it will include 4 oil storage tanks, 2 fuel dispensers, 1 set of LNG skid-mounted equipment, 2 fast charging piles, 1 set of water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, a set of hydrogen storage cylinders, and one set of hydrogen skid-mounted and refueling equipment. Annual sales: 3,500 mt of refined oil products, 800 mt of LNG, and 120 mt of hydrogen. China Coal Pingshuo Group Co., Ltd. : A change announcement was released for the procurement project of complete sets of alkaline electrolyzer equipment and ancillary facilities for Phase I of the 600,000 kW off-grid renewable energy hydrogen production project in the coal mining subsidence area of China Coal Pingshuo Group (green hydrogen coupled with the coal chemical segment), and the bid opening time was postponed to March 17, 2026. It is understood that the project adopts a main-and-auxiliary supply model, and the quotation includes 12×1,200 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzers, 3×4,800 Nm³/h gas-liquid separation systems, 3×4,800 Nm³/h gas purification systems, etc. Junrui Green Hydrogen Energy (Shangdu County) Co., Ltd. : The 30,000 mt/year hydrogen production project in Lingyuan City completed filing. Total investment was 146,037 yuan; the project covers 375 mu, including an electrolysis workshop, 2 purification and compression workshops, a power station, a hydrogen tank farm, etc.; core equipment includes 84 sets of 1,000 Nm³/h electrolyzers, hydrogen storage tanks, as well as hydrogen purification units, compressors, etc. Inner Mongolia Green Hydrogen Steel Union Technology Co., Ltd.: The filing for the green electricity and green hydrogen steel mill plant construction project, a banner/county industrial project, was successfully completed. It was learned that the project’s main construction location is Guyang County, Baotou City; total investment: 1.02 billion yuan, funded by self-owned capital; planned construction period: from March 2026 to October 2027; construction content: construction of green electricity, green hydrogen, and green steel plant buildings and auxiliary facilities. Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd.: Cancellation of the Green Methanol Plant Building Construction Project. It was learned that the Green Methanol Plant Building Construction Project of Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Baotou City—Guyang County—Jinshan Industrial Park. The project entity is Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan. Policy Review 1. Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report at the Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress, emphasizing that efforts must be made to advance the development of a green, low-carbon economy. Specific measures include: improving relevant policies to promote green and low-carbon development; carrying out actions to improve quality, reduce costs, and cut carbon emissions in key industry; further advancing the development of zero-carbon industrial parks and factories; establishing a national low-carbon transition fund and actively fostering emerging growth drivers such as hydrogen energy and green fuels; implementing strong and effective controls over high energy-consuming and high-emission projects, accelerating the phase-out of outdated capacity, while supporting innovation and application of green and low-carbon technology and equipment; improving the mechanism for total resource volume management and the comprehensive conservation system, and strengthening the recycling and utilization of renewable resources. 2. The European Commission stated that it will maintain the fertilizer carbon tariff mechanism, while simultaneously implementing temporary tariff reductions and exemptions for fertilizers such as ammonia and urea, in order to balance environmental protection goals with agricultural cost pressure, ensure fair competition, and stabilize clean energy investment. 3. The European Commission approved a 4 billion euro dedicated fund for electrolyzers, providing a 30% equipment cost subsidy for projects with capacity ≥500MW/year, and setting the 2030 electrolyzer efficiency target for green hydrogen projects at ≥60% (LHV basis). Enterprise Updates Shandong Port Qingdao Port (Group) Co., Ltd. : At the Qianwan Port Area of Shandong Port Qingdao Port, the methanol bunkering vessel “Jianhang Lida” successfully carried out 2,500 mt of green methanol ship-to-ship bunkering operations for two international seagoing vessels. SPIC Green Energy Co., Ltd.: Tender Announcement for the 10th Batch of Centralized Tenders in 2026 (infrastructure projects). This includes multiple tenders related to the Lishu wind and solar power hydrogen-ammonia-methanol project: the foundation pile detection service project for the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project; the non-destructive detection service project for the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project; and the EPC project for the design and construction of the fine interior fit-out of the office building and canteen in the plant-front area of the chemical section of the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project. Hangzhou Fenghua Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : The major project approved by the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Marine Economic Development, jointly applied for with Windey, Baimahu Laboratory, Zhejiang University of Technology, and others—R&D and application demonstration of key equipment for an offshore wind power direct-coupled hydrogen production off-grid system—was approved. Tangshan Haitai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Held a symposium with Beijing Energy International Holding Co., Ltd. The two sides focused on areas such as the construction of green electricity transmission corridors into Beijing and green hydrogen pipeline transportation, and conducted discussions and exchanges on deepening cooperation. China Huadian Corporation Ltd. : Party Secretary and Chairman Jiang Yi held talks in Baotou with Chen Zhichang, Member of the Standing Committee of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Party Committee and Party Secretary of the Baotou Municipal Party Committee, and Meng Qingwei, Deputy Party Secretary and Mayor. The two sides exchanged views on further deepening cooperation between central enterprises and local governments. CIMC Enric Holdings Limited​​​​​​​: Formally signed the Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement in Jakarta with PT SAMATOR Group, an Indonesian provider of industrial gases and energy solutions. Based on their deep accumulation in energy equipment, industrial gases, and clean energy, the two sides reached a consensus on long-term strategic cooperation. Zhizi Automobile Technology Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​: Completed a Series B financing of several hundred million yuan, with investors including Shengshi Juxin, Guoxin Venture Capital, Hebei Industrial Investment, Green Era, Youda Shangrong, the Private Economy Fund, Huoshui Capital, and Huitou Zhizao. The funds will mainly be used for R&D of core technologies such as intelligent driving and autonomous driving, replenishment of working capital, and global market expansion. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested service life of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications 1. Xi’an Jiaotong University and a Peking University team jointly developed a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of AEM water electrolysis for hydrogen production, supporting the large-scale deployment of low-cost green hydrogen. 2. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum-group metals and ionomers from PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, significantly reducing the carbon footprint. 3. Relevant research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering of Xi’an Jiaotong University and the National Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment Materials successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF seawater electrolysis bifunctional electrocatalyst. 4.《Technical Specification for Wind and Solar Power + ESS Coupled Green Electricity Electrolysis Hydrogen Production (No. T/CIEP 0272—2025), a group standard, was issued and implemented by the China Industrial Environmental Protection Promotion Association. Zhongneng Dayou Energy Technology Co., Ltd. successfully conducted R&D of a 100 kW-class PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production multi-field coupling test device. 5. GKN Powder Metallurgy announced that it had developed a new-generation high performance, high-porosity, high-purity porous transport layer (HP-PTL) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis.

[SMM Analysis] Persian Gulf Shutdown? The Impact of the U.S.-Iran Conflict on Global Steel Trade On February 28, 2026, the conflict between the United States and Iran escalated into a full-scale outbreak, causing a sudden spike in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. As a global chokepoint for energy and bulk commodity maritime transport, the Strait of Hormuz has seen shipping disrupted and routes tightened, directly impacting the nerves of the global supply chain. This "Golden Waterway" is not only a lifeline for oil but also a critical strategic corridor for the global steel import and export trade . Once passage is restricted, it will deliver a comprehensive shock to the international steel trade landscape. Amidst the turmoil of war, what disruptions and restructuring will the global steel trade face? SMM's latest research provides an in-depth analysis. In the short term, the U.S.-Iran conflict poses a risk of stalling steel imports and exports in the Persian Gulf region, putting pressure on China's steel exports. Multiple disruptions along Gulf shipping routes have caused significant delays in exporters' orders. According to SMM research, the current Middle East situation has disrupted multiple ports in the Gulf region. Bahrain has suspended port activities, including pilotage services. Jebel Ali Port has halted all operations due to a fire caused by intercepting airstrike debris. Qatar's Ras Laffan and Messaid ports remain operational but with reduced traffic, GPS signal interference, and the government closure of its airspace. Similarly, new orders and shipments for Chinese exporters have also been significantly hindered. Data Source:SMM Impact Assessment of Core Ports within the Strait of Hormuz Should a physical blockade occur at this strategic chokepoint, the five most directly affected key inner-bay ports experiencing “instant logistics paralysis” would be: Port of Bandar Abbas, Port of Khomeini, Port of Jebel Ali, Port of Khalifa, and King Abdullah Port. Simultaneously, a Strait blockade would threaten to disrupt approximately 10% of global seaborne steel trade (primarily semi-finished products and specialty ores) . Iran's production of direct reduced iron (DRI) also holds significant weight in global supply; any disruption could drive up costs for electric arc furnace steelmaking in the Middle East. Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping After the blockade, will goods become completely impossible to transport? While maritime routes will indeed come to a near standstill, the flow of goods won't cease entirely. It will simply become extremely costly, slow, and require complex overland transshipment. For instance, strategic alternative ports outside the strait include Sohar Port, Chabahar Port, and Gwadar Port. Data Source: Compiled by SMM based on publicly available information Trade Chokehold Triggered by Insurance Withdrawals Equally severe as the strait blockade is the withdrawal of war risk insurance. Marine insurers Skuld and Gard have announced they will cancel war risk coverage due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Local feedback from the UAE indicates most insurers refuse to underwrite war risk insurance for the Red Sea. This means traders must bear multiple uncontrollable factors and assume all consequences, which will significantly impact new orders. Summary: The Hormuz Crisis's “Hedging Effect” on China's Steel Market Leads to Short-Term Export Pressure Short-Term Negative Impact (Suppression of Demand and Logistics): The sudden halt in Gulf shipping routes will cause China's total exports to Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to plummet dramatically. Export disruptions may even force resources to flow back into the domestic market, intensifying supply pressure and exerting downward pressure on steel prices. Data Source: SMM, GACC Mid-term outlook: As a major steel supplier, Iran's halted exports will trigger tightening supply of steel billets in Southeast and South Asia. From Construction to Industry: Iran's Steel Export Structure Transformation and the Peak Era Dominated by “Billet” According to data released by the Iranian Steel Producers Association (ISPA), 2025 marked the “peak era” for Iran's steel exports, with its export structure exhibiting an extremely aggressive trend: ① Absolute Dominance of Semi-Finished Products: From March to December 2025, Iran's billet exports reached 4.58 million tons (+37.7% YoY), while slab exports hit 1.54 million tons (+44.6% YoY). This confirms the earlier observation that the current strait blockade will trigger significant “slab panic” among downstream steel mills in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. ② Structural Leap in Flat Products: Finished flat product exports surged from 307,000 tons in the same period last year to 1.03 million tons. Notably, the significant increase in hot-rolled coil (867,000 tons) and coated steel (up 76.7% YoY) indicates Iran's gradual transition from a “construction steel supplier” to an “industrial raw material supplier.” ③ Weakness and contraction in long products: In contrast, exports of finished long products (rebar, wire rod) declined by 9.9%, while structural steel exports plummeted by 27.7%. This trend of “reducing long products while increasing flat products” has, against the backdrop of stalled infrastructure projects, actually heightened the risk of inventory buildup for finished goods. Data Source: ISPA Mid-term positive factors: Cost and substitution support Iran's steel export shortfall of nearly 11 million tons will trigger regional supply tightness, forcing some Southeast Asian and South Asian buyers to shift procurement to China, creating “substitution-driven incremental demand.” Simultaneously, rising crude oil prices may push up costs across the entire industrial chain, providing bottom-up support for steel prices. Although logistics disruptions and project suspensions will suppress export performance in the short term, the reshuffling of the global supply landscape is expected to partially offset the negative impact. Chinese steel may play a key role in filling the global gap. Long-term outlook: Iran's ceasefire may temporarily impact the global steel market Hoarding effect under blockade: Iran's sharply rising mill and port inventory pressures According to the latest global steel statistics report released by the World Steel Association (WSA), Iran's cumulative crude steel production reached 31.8 million tons in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.4% compared to 2024 and solidifying its position as the world's tenth-largest steel producer. In December 2025, Iran's monthly crude steel output hit 3 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 16.2%. This indicates that Iranian steel mills were operating at peak capacity just before the conflict erupted. In January 2026, its crude steel output reached approximately 2.6 million tons, marking a 15.1% year-on-year increase. Against the backdrop of a 6.5% year-on-year decline in global crude steel production during January, Iran demonstrated an “independent trend.” According to SMM research, the high production levels from earlier periods have led to severe inventory backlogs at domestic steel mills. The logistics blockade that began in late February prevented the full shipment of steel produced during this high-output phase out of the Persian Gulf. Consequently, ports and mill warehouses are now stockpiling large quantities of slabs and billets originally intended for export. Once the situation eases, this “low-priced inventory” could flood the market at dumping prices. However, considering Iran's post-ceasefire reconstruction needs and the actual release of these supplies, SMM will continue to monitor developments closely. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 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Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. 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Last week the average operating rate of galvanising enterprises fell 0.17 percentage point from the previous week to 64.83%.

Last week, the average operating rate of galvanising enterprises rose 2.51 percentage points from the previous week to 67.94%. Galvanising plants purchased raw materials as needed as zinc prices remained rangebound. Some enterprises resumed production after the Dragon Boat Festival holidays.

Last week, the average operating rate of galvanising enterprises rose 0.90 percentage points from the previous week to 69.39%. Raw material inventory dropped slightly as downstream enterprises mainly purchased under long-term contracts. In terms of galvanised pipes, due to the introduction of favourable policies, the price of ferrous metals rose, improving the sales of galvanised pipes. Fearing price drop for ferrous metals, galvanised pipe plants kept production and sales balanced, reducing the inventory of finished products. Due to the rise in the price of steel and zinc ingots, some galvanised pipe plants entered losses.

Last week, the average operating rate of galvanising enterprises rose 1.06 percentage points to 65.89%.