Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in January-February, China’s real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential investment was 728.2 billion yuan, down 10.7%, with the decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points. In January-February, the floor space of buildings under construction by real estate development enterprises nationwide was 5.3537 billion m², down 11.7% YoY. Of this total, residential floor space under construction was 3.7135 billion m², down 11.9%. The floor space of buildings newly started was 50.84 million m², down 23.1%. Of this total, residential floor space newly started was 36.95 million m², down 23.3%. The floor space of buildings completed was 63.2 million m², down 27.9%. Of this total, residential floor space completed was 46.25 million m², down 26.9%. I. Completion of Real Estate Development Investment In January-February, China’s real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% YoY (calculated on a comparable basis; see Note 5 for details), with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential investment was 728.2 billion yuan, down 10.7%, with the decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points. In January-February, the floor space of buildings under construction by real estate development enterprises was 5.3537 billion m², down 11.7% YoY. Of this total, residential floor space under construction was 3.7135 billion m², down 11.9%. The floor space of buildings newly started was 50.84 million m², down 23.1%. Of this total, residential floor space newly started was 36.95 million m², down 23.3%. The floor space of buildings completed was 63.2 million m², down 27.9%. Of this total, residential floor space completed was 46.25 million m², down 26.9%. II. Sales of Newly Built Commercial Buildings and Pending Sale Status In January-February, the floor space of newly built commercial buildings sold was 92.93 million m², down 13.5% YoY, with the decline widening by 4.8 percentage points from the full-year level of the previous year; of which, residential sales floor space fell 15.9%. Sales of newly built commercial buildings amounted to 818.6 billion yuan, down 20.2%, with the decline widening by 7.6 percentage points; of which, residential sales value fell 21.8%. At month-end February, the floor space of commercial buildings pending sale was 799.98 million m², up 0.1% YoY, with the growth rate pulling back by 1.5 percentage points from year-end 2025. Of this total, the floor space pending sale for less than three years was 606.16 million m², down 1.6%. III. Funding Sources of Real Estate Development Enterprises In January-February, funds in place for real estate development enterprises totaled 1,304.7 billion yuan, down 16.5% YoY. Of this total, China domestic loans stood at 257 billion yuan, down 13.9%; self-raised funds were 493.9 billion yuan, down 5.9%; deposits and advance receipts were 358.9 billion yuan, down 21.5%; and individual mortgage loans were 112.8 billion yuan, down 41.9%.

As of March 16, tungsten prices in China saw a slight correction, with APT quoted at 1.505 million yuan/mt. The market's fear of high prices was released, entering a phase of rational wait-and-see. Outside China, supply remained persistently tight, with the average APT Rotterdam price at $2,200/mtu, while weekly gains in tungsten scrap prices in India and Europe exceeded 25%.

SMM, March 16: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract opened higher and extended gains today, while market transactions were relatively sluggish. Futures later fell, and as buying sentiment strengthened and price acceptance improved, transaction prices in the spot market moved higher. Today’s mainstream quotations and transaction prices were mainly concentrated between a discount of 10 yuan/mt and the average price. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.07, down 0.26 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.66, up 0.11 WoW. Today, aluminum prices continued to edge lower from last Friday, and with inventory remaining high, traders in the central China market showed limited bullish sentiment. Overall purchase volumes recovered somewhat from the previous two trading days. As futures prices declined, market premiums showed a continued upward trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were mainly concentrated between a discount of 10 yuan to the central China price and a premium of 20 yuan to the central China price, and moved higher throughout the session. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.58, down 0.09 WoW; the purchase sentiment index was 2.36, up 0.01 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 18,500 mt WoW today, with all three regions showing inventory buildup. In the short term, following the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, as the Two Sessions ended, coke producers previously subject to production restrictions gradually resumed production. With losses per mt of coke remaining within an acceptable range, production enthusiasm was moderate, and coke supply increased steadily. On the demand side, as the country's important meetings ended, steel mills previously subject to production restrictions were expected to resume production, leading to some increase in coke demand. However, as no clearly positive policies emerged from the Two Sessions, market wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and steel mills maintained a cautious attitude toward coke, mainly purchasing as needed. In summary, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Module Prices Have Softened Somewhat, While Polysilicon Prices Remain Temporarily Stable] Recently, transaction prices for modules in China have softened somewhat. As demand outside China declines and domestic projects are at the point of being about to start, module enterprises have shown differing attitudes in their quotations. Some enterprises have begun offering concessions in advance to take orders, and distributors have also recently started shipments at low prices, thereby leading to a decline in the market transaction price center. At present, quoted prices for distributed Topcon183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are 0.752 Yuan/W, 0.767 Yuan/W, and 0.77 Yuan/W, respectively, while quoted prices for centralized Topcon182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are 0.727 Yuan/W and 0747 Yuan/W, respectively.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fell Back as Steel Mill Price Adjustments Dampened Downstream Buying Interest SMM News, March 16: SS futures showed a downward pullback. Although the contract was relatively stable during Friday's night session, Monday's open was dragged lower by a broad decline across the nonferrous metals sector, with SS also pulling back to close at 14,185 yuan/mt by midday. In the spot market, affected by the decline in SS futures and an overall cut of 200 yuan/mt in the morning guidance prices from a major stainless steel mill, retail quotations in the market edged lower. Price fluctuations fueled stronger wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers, and intraday transactions were weak. However, market feedback indicated that transactions had been broadly steady earlier, and coupled with relatively strong expectations for the cost side of stainless steel, most market participants had not expected this round of price cuts. Traders' spot quotations fell by less than the reduction in the guidance price. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back after falling. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,045 yuan/mt, down 230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for Wuxi 304/2B were in the range of 245-445 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally stable; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt and the average price in Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coils were stable; Wuxi quotations for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were stable; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also stable. As the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April" begins, the stainless steel market is entering a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually resu...

SMM, March 13: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at around 16,550 yuan/mt. In early trading, lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,195 yuan/mt, and then rebounded slightly on buying support, though the rebound was limited. SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,280-16,370 yuan/mt range and finally closed at 16,315 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, down 240 yuan/mt, or 1.45%. Recently, factors such as a strong US dollar driven by geopolitical tensions and stagflation concerns have weighed on lead prices. Meanwhile, losses at secondary lead smelters widened, with some enterprises suspending shipments or raising premiums on quotes; premiums for cargoes self-picked up from production sites at primary lead smelters remained firm, and proactive supply-side tightening underpinned spot prices. At present, lead prices are dominated by bears and are expected to remain in the doldrums. Subsequent lead price trends should focus on changes in downstream buying sentiment. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Daily Review: Cost Support Met Cooling Downstream Prices, Putting Pressure on High-Grade NPI Prices] March 16 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.89, down 0.03 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.63, down 0.09 MoM.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Bulls Lost Momentum at High Levels, Aluminum Alloy Futures Prices Should Watch Lower Support] Last Friday, quotations in the secondary aluminum alloy market were mainly stable. Before noon, fluctuations in futures narrowed, enterprises' willingness to adjust prices weakened significantly, and most producers chose to hold prices steady and wait on the sidelines. In the afternoon, as futures fluctuated downward, some producers began to lower quotations by 100 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream players still mainly made just-in-time procurement, but amid the pullback in aluminum prices and the approach of the weekend, some enterprises showed slightly stronger purchasing interest, and market transactions improved somewhat from the previous day.

Platinum prices fell sharply today. In early trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 528.95 yuan/g, down 4.18%. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at discounts of 7-9 yuan/g against PT2606, or at discounts of 3-5 yuan/g against the SGE Sell 1 price, with spot discounts narrowing slightly from the previous trading day. In terms of spot transactions, cargo-holding traders actively offered quotes. Downstream purchase willingness improved today due to order demand and lower spot prices. Some traders reported that platinum transactions were relatively good today, and overall trading in the spot market recovered somewhat.