SMM Nickel News, March 16: Macro and Market News: (1) The financial statistics report for February released by the central bank showed that at month-end February, broad money (M2) balance stood at 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; cumulative aggregate social financing for the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans in the first two months increased by 5.61 trillion yuan; the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 345.72 trillion yuan, up 8.8% YoY; and the month-end RMB deposit balance was 337.94 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. (2) The central bank said in its tender announcement for open-market outright reverse repo operations that on March 16, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through a fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, and multiple-price allocation method, with a tenor of six months (182 days). Spot Market: On March 16, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 2,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,700 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream branded electrodeposited nickel was at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fell sharply intraday and closed the morning session at 135,990 yuan/mt, down 1.83%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the industry-level support logic has not changed, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products remain. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,938/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead prices moved steadily around the daily average line, briefly touching a high of $1,638.5/mt. Entering the European session, bulls and bears were evenly matched, and LME lead prices continued to fluctuate rangebound around the daily average line. Thereafter, bears took the lead, and LME lead fluctuated downward. Around midnight, LME lead prices plunged to a low of $1,890/mt, and finally closed at $1,903/mt, down $32.5/mt, or 1.68%. Trading volume fell to 7,363 lots, while open interest increased by 2,494 lots to 176,000 lots. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,550 yuan/mt. It edged up in early trading, touched a high of 16,565 yuan/mt, and then slipped slightly. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within the 16,385-16,465 yuan/mt range, and closed at 16,395 yuan/mt near the session low. It posted a long bearish candlestick, down 160 yuan/mt, or 0.97%. Trading volume fell to 28,599 lots, while open interest increased by 2,715 lots to 66,396 lots. On the macro front: 1. US GDP for Q4 last year was revised down to only 0.7%, while core PCE inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY. 2. Sources said neither the US nor Iran intended to agree to a ceasefire, and the conflict in the Middle East may become prolonged. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu released a video to prove he was still "alive" and said operations against Iran would continue. The Israeli military said its military operations against Iran would last at least another three weeks. Iran's foreign minister said Iran had never requested a ceasefire or negotiations. A senior Iranian commander said there were two conditions for ending the war: Iran must recover all losses and the US must leave the Persian Gulf. 3. International Energy Agency: Record strategic crude oil reserves will be released immediately to the Asian market, while Europe and the US will need to wait until month-end. 4. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki: Preparations have been made to take all necessary exchange-rate measures. 5. State Council executive meeting: It discussed and approved the Work Division Plan for the State Council's Key Tasks in 2026 and studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies. 6. The central bank: Aggregate social financing added up to 9.6 trillion yuan in the first two months, 31.62 billion yuan more than the same period last year; M2 balance at the end of February rose 9% YoY. 7. The National Financial Regulatory Administration, together with the People's Bank of China, formulated the Provisions on Disclosure of Comprehensive Financing Costs for Personal Loan Business. 8. China Securities Regulatory Commission: It will closely track changes in international financial markets and the internal and external environment, and strengthen coordinated monitoring of at home and abroad and futures and spot markets. 9. China-US economic and trade consultations were held in France from March 14 to March 17. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers quoted in line with market conditions. In Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, suppliers mostly waited for delivery, with few quotations. Meanwhile, quotations for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site diverged. Suppliers in the north actively made shipments at discounts, while in south China, due to limited circulating cargoes, some suppliers held prices firm and shipped at premiums. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. In addition, secondary lead smelters were mostly cutting or suspending production due to losses, leaving fewer circulating cargoes in the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises bought the dip on demand, and due to the price difference between primary lead and secondary lead, rigid demand from downstream enterprises was more inclined toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 13, LME lead registered warrants fell 0.18% to 279,125 mt. As of March 12, total SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued to increase. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Current lead prices were still generally moving in a weak rangebound pattern, lacking a clear one-way trend. The primary lead spot market showed a clear north-south divergence, with northern suppliers shipping at discounts and some southern cargoes staying tight, supporting firm offers. Secondary lead smelters cut or suspended production due to losses, and tighter circulating cargoes provided some price support, but downstream procurement remained cautious and mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak purchase willingness. As the price spread between primary lead and secondary lead narrowed, some demand shifted to primary lead, while transactions in secondary lead remained sluggish. Overall, lead prices are unlikely to see a notable rebound in the short term and will likely maintain rangebound consolidation. Further attention should be paid to inventory changes and smelter production conditions.

In early March 2026, Qatalum—the 648,000-tonne-per-year primary aluminum smelter in Qatar, a 50/50 joint venture between Norsk Hydro and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company initiated a controlled shutdown of production. The decision, effective from March 3, followed a warning from gas supplier QatarEnergy that natural gas deliveries would be fully suspended due to disruptions linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, including attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

Platinum prices fell sharply today. In early trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 528.95 yuan/g, down 4.18%. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at discounts of 7-9 yuan/g against PT2606, or at discounts of 3-5 yuan/g against the SGE Sell 1 price, with spot discounts narrowing slightly from the previous trading day. In terms of spot transactions, cargo-holding traders actively offered quotes. Downstream purchase willingness improved today due to order demand and lower spot prices. Some traders reported that platinum transactions were relatively good today, and overall trading in the spot market recovered somewhat.

After a strong start, the price of gold slipped twice to around $5,060 during this trading week. Now, it appears that gold prices might manage to stay just above $5,100 heading into the weekend, continuing the persistent sideways movement of the past five weeks.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Geopolitical Premiums Persist, Aluminum Prices Remained Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and was expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China, meanwhile, was in a phase of high inventory plus weak spot fundamentals, with upward momentum clearly weaker than outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to remain fluctuating at highs in the short term.

We all know the relationship between Gold and US Dollars in the financial markets. When the USD rises, gold tends to fall and vice versa. It sounds simple to you, right? But understanding why this happens, and how to actually trade it like a pro trader, takes more than knowing that the pattern exists.

SMM News, March 12: Today in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 50 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 110 yuan/mt from last Friday; a discount of 10 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 50 yuan/mt from last Friday; and a discount of 85 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 85 yuan/mt from last Friday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 98,955 yuan/mt, down 1,640 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 98,850 yuan/mt, down 1,625 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory did not continue to decline, but instead increased slightly, mainly due to increased arrivals. As today was the contract rollover day, market quotations were mixed. Mainstream transaction prices for standard-quality copper were at a discount of 120 yuan/mt against the next-month contract, while transaction prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 10 yuan/mt; overall trading was relatively quiet. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.32, down 0.08 from the previous trading day, and shipments sentiment was 3.01, down 0.29 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, market quotations were mixed on the contract rollover day, and overall trading was relatively quiet.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US Dollar Strengthened, LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,315.5/mt. At the beginning of the session, bulls and bears were intertwined, and LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,316.5/mt. Subsequently, bulls reduced their open interest, and LME zinc fluctuated downward, touching a low of $3,270.5/mt during European trading hours. পরে, the center moved up slightly and fluctuated in consolidation along the daily average line, finally closing down at $3,293.5/mt, down $21/mt, or 0.63%. Trading volume fell to 7,065 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,630 lots to 215,000 lots.

March 13 (Reuters) - Gold was on track for a second straight weekly loss, even as it edged higher on Friday, as surging oil prices dampened rate cut bets and caused investors to cover margin calls, while a rising dollar and U.S. yields also pressured prices.