On August 7, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$173.91/dmt, down $14.54/dmt from the previous -$159.37/dmt. The payable indicator for domestic trade ore with 20% grade stood at 98.5%-99.5%. This week, spot market transactions were relatively active, but transaction prices declined further. In spot trading, a trader sold 30,000-50,000 mt of bundled ore for delivery from Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 to a smelter at -$170/dmt, QP: M+1/M+5; another trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore at -$183/dmt to a smelter, with shipment in August/September, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 40,000-60,000 mt of bundled ore for Q4 delivery at -$170/dmt to -$175/dmt to a smelter, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 20,000 mt of bundled ore at -$174/dmt to -$175/dmt and also sold 10,000 mt of high-arsenic ore at around -$100/dmt to smelters, with shipment in Q4, QP: M+1/M+4; a trader sold 70,000 mt of bundled ore to smelters at an index minus $18/dmt, with shipment in Q4; a trader sold 10,000 mt of bundled ore for August/September shipment at an index minus $22/dmt to $23/dmt to smelters; a trader offered 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at an index minus $20/dmt. In mine tenders, on the trader side, the winning bid price for 10,000 mt of BISHA ore, September-October shipment, was -$240/dmt to -$230/dmt; the winning bid result for Chuquicamata was below -$200/dmt. Overall, fixed-price transactions increased in the spot market this week. Due to weather-related shipment delays from some mines in Chile and Peru, there was restocking demand. Coupled with rigid restocking needs from new smelting capacity, spot TC continued to deteriorate, and smelter profit margins kept narrowing. However, smelters had limited acceptance of low-priced supply. Downward pressure remained but downside room was limited. According to foreign media reports, the DRC government signed a decree on June 29 to ban the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, effective immediately. Under "strategic" conditions, the Minister of Mines may still grant an export exemption for a period of one year. It should be noted that the DRC had already imposed strict controls on copper and cobalt concentrate exports. Under current policy, such exports are prohibited in principle, and enterprises must obtain government-approved export quotas or exemptions before shipping. Therefore, this policy is more about reaffirming and further tightening the existing management framework, rather than a sudden complete halt to copper concentrate exports. The additional impact of the ban on short-term global copper concentrate trade is likely to be relatively limited. What is more noteworthy is the policy signal it sends: As the strategic importance of critical minerals grows, resource-rich countries are using export restrictions, local processing mandates, and tax policies to capture a greater share of the industry chain and resource value added at home. Resource nationalism is increasingly disrupting global copper raw material flows and the supply landscape. On August 4, Codelco announced that it had temporarily suspended the development and construction activities of the Andes Norte project at its El Teniente mine, due to a potential new-type seismic risk in the deep areas of the project. This measure only applies to the Andes Norte project and does not mean a full stoppage at the El Teniente mine. Other production areas at the mine continue to operate, with seismic monitoring and related safety measures in place. According to the latest data from China Customs, China's copper concentrate imports in July 2026 totaled 2.379 million mt, up 1.88% MoM and down 6.93% YoY. From January to July 2026, cumulative copper concentrate imports amounted to 16.985 million mt, representing a cumulative YoY decline of 1.8%. On August 6, 2026, SMM recorded copper concentrate inventories at eleven ports of 692,000 mt in physical content, up 27,600 mt in physical content from July 31. The main increase came from Fangchenggang Port and Qinzhou Port, up MoM by 20,000 mt and 29,000 mt respectively; the main decrease was from Yantai Port and Qingdao Port, down MoM by 22,400 mt and 20,000 mt respectively.

【Agratas Develops In-House LFP Battery Technology Amid China Export Restrictions】 Tata Group's battery unit Agratas is building a pilot lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cell production line at its Sanand battery plant in India and will develop LFP cells using its own technology for the first time. Amid tighter Chinese restrictions on battery manufacturing technology exports, the company has shifted to an in-house development strategy to reduce reliance on external technology licensing. Agratas will validate pilot LFP cells before moving toward commercial-scale production.

According to foreign media reports, the DRC government signed an order on June 29 banning the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, with the ban taking effect immediately; projects that meet "strategic" conditions may be granted an export exemption of up to one year upon approval by the Minister of Mines. The DRC had already imposed strict approval procedures on copper and cobalt concentrate exports, with enterprises required to obtain export quotas or exemptions before shipping, so this policy is more a reiteration and tightening of existing controls rather than a sudden, complete halt of exports. According to SMM, the copper concentrates previously exported by the DRC mainly came from the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine, jointly owned by Zijin Mining and Ivanhoe. In 2025, the mine produced copper concentrates containing 388,800 mt of copper, and a supporting 500,000 mt/year blister copper smelter was commissioned at year-end, producing copper anode with a purity of 99.7% that still needs to be shipped overseas for further refining. In Q2 2026, the smelter produced 62,100 mt of copper anode, and as capacity ramps up, the project’s export product is shifting from copper concentrates to copper anode. Given that DRC copper concentrate exports were already subject to approval restrictions and Kamoa-Kakula possesses local smelting capacity, this ban may have limited additional impact on short-term global copper concentrate trade. However, the policy sends a relatively clear signal: as the strategic status of critical minerals rises, resource-rich countries are increasingly focusing on keeping more resource added value and industry chain segments at home through export restrictions, local processing requirements, and tax policies, and the impact of resource protectionism on the global copper raw material supply landscape is continuously rising.

[Platinum and Palladium Price Review and Forecast] This week (from July 31 to August 6), platinum and palladium prices moved sideways before breaking out and rebounding strongly, ending the week with a sharp overall gain. At the start of the week, signals from US-Iran negotiations showed renewed divergence, with Trump and the Iranian military each holding their own stance on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East situation remained in a stalemate. This, combined with the continuation of a hawkish tone from the US Fed's July FOMC meeting, where rates were held steady but internal division intensified (9:3 vote, with three voters advocating a rate hike), kept the US dollar and Treasury yields high. As a result, platinum and palladium futures mainly consolidated. Mid-week, US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled that a deal between the US and Iran, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, was likely on August 4 or 5. International oil prices plummeted overnight, easing inflation expectations and driving down expectations for US Fed rate hikes (the probability of a September rate hike fell from around 72% to near 58%). Additionally, the US Commerce Department's plan to add 14 downstream derivatives of steel, aluminum, and copper to the Section 232 tariff scope raised the tail-end premium for platinum group metals (PGMs) trade protection. Combined with the release of oversold short positions and the return of safe-haven funds after platinum and palladium had cumulatively plunged over 45% year-to-date, the most-traded NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts both surged about 7.4% in the night session on August 4, marking their largest single-day gain since February 2026. This directly drove the domestic market to open higher with a gap and rally strongly on August 5, with the GFEX most-traded platinum contract settling at 441.15 yuan/g and the palladium contract at 329.65 yuan/g, both hitting new highs since early July. At the end of the week (August 6), the US ADP employment data for July showed only 44,000 new jobs, below expectations and the lowest this year. The weakness in small nonfarm data further dampened rate hike expectations. This, along with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister's statement that the Hormuz navigation agreement with Oman was near finalization (with the new temporary route expected to be available for 2-4 months) and continued easing US-Iran tensions, kept platinum and palladium slightly higher, consolidating at highs. However, on the same day, US Fed Governor Cook reiterated readiness to raise rates if inflation didn't slow, signaling that hawkish cues remained. Platinum and palladium continued to consolidate at highs for the short term. The GFEX most-traded platinum contract hit a weekly high of 444.5 yuan/g and a low of 398.7 yuan/g, closing at 433.5 yuan/g as of August 6, for a weekly gain of about 8.4% for platinum. The most-traded palladium contract hit a weekly high of 333.75 yuan/g and a low of about 300.4 yuan/g, closing at 325.75 yuan/g as of August 6, for a weekly gain of about 6.5% for palladium. In the spot market, driven by the sharp single-day futures rally on August 5, spot discounts for platinum and palladium widened slightly compared to the previous week. Spot prices lagged behind in the rally due to the spot-futures linkage. Mainstream quotations for platinum were quoted at discounts of about 4-2 yuan/g against the most-traded contract, and palladium discounts were about 3.5-1.5 yuan/g. As futures prices kept rising, downstream buying interest remained low, with bid-ask spreads widening. Trader warehouse warrant quotes were relatively firm, concentrated around discounts of 2 yuan/g against the GFEX most-traded contract. Consumption in automotive catalysts and industrial sectors stayed weak, with end-users mainly restocking on a need basis. Overall, spot market consumption for platinum and palladium continued to be sluggish throughout the week. Looking ahead, platinum and palladium prices are currently in a rebound phase following oversold corrections, with both short-term upward drivers and downward constraints coexisting. On the bullish side, after deep corrections, short positions have been partially released, and the logic of fund inflows and oversold recovery remains in place. If the US-Iran navigation agreement is substantively finalized, oil prices and inflation expectations retreat further, and expectations for US Fed rate hikes converge, the valuation recovery for precious metals will continue. Trade protection expectations from Section 232 tariffs form a mid-term support floor. However, excessive optimism about the upside room and sustainability is not warranted. The core constraints are: first, this rebound is mainly driven by "international price correlations + oversold recovery fund flows," and the supply-demand fundamentals haven't undergone a reversal, with institutions widely questioning sustainability; second, the US Fed's hawkish stance remains unshaken, and the 9:3 divide in the July FOMC shows rate hike expectations for this year have not reversed, with the probability of a September rate hike still high, capping rates; third, doubts about the US-Iran agreement's implementation and escalating Houthi blockades in the Red Sea mean oil prices and inflation expectations could fluctuate again, potentially restarting a negative feedback loop. Future price direction still awaits further guidance from the evolution of US-Iran tensions, actual navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, US inflation data for August, and the US Fed's policy path. [Platinum and Palladium Weekly Data Comments] COMEX platinum and palladium inventories showed divergent trends this week. The earlier consistent destocking trend for platinum inventories slowed down temporarily. Total inventory remained around 399,000 oz (August 6), with registered inventory accounting for about 48%, indicating significantly weakened destocking momentum. The key reason was that after a sharp price rebound (over 7% in a single day), industrial buying turned cautious, with market entry pace slowing down and low-price restocking demand receding. For palladium, the inventory buildup trend continued, with total inventory at about 255,000 oz (August 5), with registered inventory accounting for nearly 80%. Buffer stocks in US warehouses were near a one-year high, keeping the supply oversupply pattern unchanged. In terms of imports, platinum imports in June rose YoY again; palladium imports also picked up slightly, with the overall level significantly higher than from 2023 to 2025. China's platinum and palladium imports have grown rapidly since early 2026, and currently, domestic supply is relatively ample. Additionally, export restrictions on platinum and palladium make it hard to absorb the domestic surplus through exports. [Platinum Group Compounds] This week, chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride were stable at first before rising sharply. In the early part, trading was weak due to downstream maintenance, but hydrogen energy demand provided some support for platinum-based compounds. Driven by soaring platinum and palladium prices overseas, domestic compound prices surged and hit recent highs, but actual downstream demand remained weak. Chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride prices followed a two-stage trajectory this week, stable initially before surging. In the first stage, from July 30 to August 4, they mainly moved sideways in a narrow range. Chloroplatinic acid fluctuated narrowly around 162-167 yuan/g, and palladium chloride consolidated in the 187-191.5 yuan/g range. Spot market trading was sluggish, with high temperatures causing concentrated maintenance in automotive, pharmaceutical, and petrochemical sectors, which dragged down spot transactions. In the hydrogen energy sector, peak deliveries of hydrogen production equipment provided some support for platinum-based catalyst demand, with platinum compound deliveries slightly outperforming palladium. In the second stage, from August 5 to 6, prices surged violently. On August 5, chloroplatinic acid jumped to 177 yuan/g, and on August 6, it extended gains to 180 yuan/g, for a weekly change of 18 yuan/g, or a 11.11% weekly gain. Palladium chloride rose to 195.5 yuan/g on August 5, up 7 yuan/g, and then broke through 200 yuan/g to reach 204 yuan/g, for a weekly change of 17 yuan/g, or a 9.09% weekly gain, both hitting recent highs. This was mainly driven by the surge in overseas platinum and palladium, which transmitted to higher domestic raw material prices, boosting short-term bullish sentiment and pulling up compound raw material prices. However, from the overall downstream demand perspective, trading was quite sluggish, and demand continued to show a weak trend.

【U.S. Issues Black Mass Export Rule, Restrictions Effective Aug 27】 The U.S. Department of Commerce on August 5 published the Interim Final Rule implementing export restrictions on black mass and tungsten scrap, following President Trump's Executive Order signed on July 30. The rule will take effect on August 27, 2026, and remain in force until August 27, 2027. During this period, exports of the covered materials will be subject to new U.S. export control requirements, with certain exports requiring authorization or meeting specified conditions. The U.S. government said the measure aims to strengthen domestic critical mineral supply and support the country's battery recycling and critical minerals industries.

India's aluminum scrap importers are seeking alternative supplies from Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Malaysia after several Gulf countries imposed aluminum scrap export restrictions from June 10. In FY2025/26, India imported 2.02 million tones of aluminum scrap worth INR 40,203 crore (US$4.2 billion), with the Middle East supplying around 400,000 tones, or nearly 20% of total imports. The restrictions are expected to remain in force until October 8. Industry participants said higher global scrap prices, longer shipping routes and India's 2.5% import duty are raising landed costs, prompting calls to remove the duty to improve the competitiveness of India's secondary aluminum industry.

The US has authorised potential export restrictions on waste streams containing recoverable critical minerals, including black mass, end-of-life magnets and certain electronic waste. Copper scrap is explicitly excluded because it is already covered by a separate copper policy framework introduced in July 2025. The move nevertheless reinforces the broader trend toward domestic retention of secondary raw materials.

Background: Pangkalpinang Case Triggers Tighter Regulation of Rare Earth Elements in Indonesia’s Mineral Exports Recently, the detection issues surrounding Indonesia’s rare earth elements, or Logam Tanah Jarang (LTJ) , primarily stemmed from stricter government oversight of related mineral product exports following the Pangkalpinang case. The initial case involved an anomalous export of approximately 390 mt of materials containing rare earth elements and implicated PT Putraprima Mineral Mandiri, PT Sucofindo, and the Pangkalpinang Customs Office. It raised a broader regulatory question: when a mineral product contains rare earth or radioactive elements as associated elements, should the product continue to be treated under its primary export commodity classification or be subject to rare earth-related export restrictions. This issue quickly rippled through Indonesia’s broader mineral export chain. High-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products are not themselves exported as rare earth products, but they may contain trace amounts of associated rare earth elements or radioactive elements. Consequently, with regulatory parameters not yet fully clarified, surveyors and customs tended to be cautious, causing a slowdown in LS report issuance and customs clearance for some shipments. For the nickel industry, the incident quickly became a market focal point, as exports of high-grade NPI, NPI, and MHP were all affected by additional testing requirements. Market feedback indicated that some cargoes experienced short-term port detentions or shipment disruptions, and the impact was not confined to a single enterprise. Some traders also reported that related cargoes faced shipment difficulties during the period of disruption. Why Rare Earth Elements Matter: Indonesia Strengthens Value Controls Over Critical Minerals Before Export Rare earth elements have drawn attention due to their extensive application in high-value-added fields such as EVs, permanent magnet materials, electronic products, new energy, and national defense-related materials. For Indonesia, this issue is not only about export customs clearance but also about resource value control. The Indonesian government is placing increasing emphasis on identifying, regulating, and protecting the value of critical mineral resources before they leave the country. The problem is that rare earth elements often do not exist as standalone products but appear as associated or trace elements in other minerals. If all products containing small amounts of rare earth elements were treated as restricted rare earth exports, normal mineral exports could be disrupted; yet if rare earth content is not identified or regulated at all, Indonesia could lose control over the value of strategic minerals. The commonly recognized 17 rare earth elements include: lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium, yttrium, and scandium . In recent market discussions, the testing scope mainly involved these 17 rare earth elements, while radioactive elements such as thorium and uranium also became items of inspection concern. Rare earth elements are often not produced as independent products but exist in other minerals in the form of associated elements . This also creates a regulatory gray area. If every export shipment containing trace rare earth elements were treated as rare earth exports, many normal mineral shipments could face delays. But if associated rare earth content is not tested at all, Indonesia risks the loss of strategic mineral value. Therefore, the market’s focus is not merely on whether nickel product exports are disrupted; the larger question is whether Indonesia is entering a new regulatory phase requiring more detailed chemical composition verification for mineral exports. What Happened in the Market: LS Report Delays and Additional Testing Disrupted Mineral Shipments According to SMM’s market understanding, the recent testing requirements temporarily affected the export of some processed mineral products from Indonesia. For nickel products, the impact was mainly reflected in three aspects. Delays in LS report issuance. LS reports are critical documents in the export process, and delays in their issuance directly affect customs clearance and cargo release. According to SMM’s understanding as of July 24, relevant authorities also noted that laboratory testing preparations remained relatively limited, and due to differing interpretations of how to handle rare earth elements during export verification, 102 LS survey reports were still pending. Short-term port detentions for some cargoes. Market feedback indicated that shipments of some NPI and MHP cargoes were affected, and some traders also mentioned that QMB-related cargoes faced shipment difficulties during the disruption. Export enterprises required to organize additional testing. The government required testing of 17 rare earth elements and radioactive elements in certain products, and some enterprises were still awaiting testing results or further clarity from surveyors and customs. Thus, this incident is not a direct export ban on nickel products but a short-term administrative and testing bottleneck arising from unclear regulatory parameters for associated rare earth and radioactive elements. Impact on the Nickel Market: NPI and Other Nickel Product Exports Mainly Affected by Shipment Pace Disruptions For the high-grade NPI and NPI market, the short-term impact was mainly on shipment pace rather than production. Some port cargoes experienced delays due to affected LS reports and customs clearance processes. According to SMM’s latest understanding, LS survey reports were being released in batches, and some high-grade NPI cargoes at ports had begun to be released progressively. As the current disruption primarily occurred in export documentation and customs clearance, the direct impact on NPI production was limited. If LS report issuance and customs clearance continue to normalize, the impact on the overall NPI market is expected to be limited. At this stage, the issue appears more as a short-term export process disruption rather than a confirmed structural restriction on NPI exports. For the MHP market, some cargoes were also affected by the rare earth-related testing requirements. According to market feedback, some MHP shipments faced short-term inability to ship smoothly during the disruption. Similar to NPI, the core issues centered on LS report issuance, testing requirements, and customs clearance, rather than direct restrictions on MHP production. The latest Indonesian government coordination outcome clarified that export procedures should refer to the primary mineral product and its derivative attributes, rather than automatically treating associated rare earth elements or radioactive elements in the product as grounds for export restrictions. Therefore, for MHP, the key lies in whether the product can continue to be classified and exported based on its primary product attributes. Market Feedback and Industry Concerns: Unclear Technical Standards Create Uncertainty for Export Enterprises Market feedback indicated that rare earth-related testing requirements had already caused real disruptions to Indonesia’s mineral product export chain. According to Arif Perdanakusumah, Chairman of FINI (Indonesian Nickel Smelting Association), at least 120 bulk commodity vessels were unable to sail or depart due to the need to test for rare earth content. He noted that this situation caused losses not only for enterprises but also for the government, primarily because there were still no clear regulations providing technical guidance on rare earth content thresholds. Industry associations generally understood that this policy was part of the government’s effort to improve mineral governance, but they also stressed that technical implementation still needed re-examination, particularly given that rare earth elements in many mineral products exist only as associated or trace elements rather than primary products. This distinction is especially important for commodities such as nickel, bauxite, tin, and copper, as enterprises' permits and processing designs are primarily centered on the main minerals, and rare earth elements may merely be naturally occurring by-products or associated elements. The bauxite industry also raised similar concerns. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of ABI (Indonesian Bauxite Association), stated that the rare earth issue should be addressed based on its technical nature and handled by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, as the ministry possesses the relevant mining and mineral expertise. He emphasized that the key question is whether rare earth elements are primary products or merely associated elements. If they are primary products, relevant export restrictions could apply; but if they are only associated elements, more detailed technical clarification is needed rather than causing widespread export disruptions. Sari Esayanti, Executive Director of IMA (Indonesian Mining Association), also pointed out that most mining enterprises still center on the primary commodities covered by their permits and existing processing designs. In multiple commodities such as tin, bauxite, nickel, and copper, rare earth elements are typically just associated elements. She also stated that most mining enterprises currently lack adequate facilities or technology to identify, separate, or economically utilize rare earth elements. Thus, new interpretations regarding rare earth element declarations or export obligations have created uncertainty for enterprises. From an industry perspective, the most urgent need currently is technical certainty. Enterprises require clearer parameters, testing methods, and declaration mechanisms so that all exporters, surveyors, and customs authorities can adopt uniform standards. Without consistent technical guidance, even if the current bottleneck gradually eases, similar shipment delays could still recur. Latest Government Developments and Resolution Direction: Primary Product Attributes Become the Core Clarification Point The most important development came from the Indonesian government’s coordination letter dated July 31, 2026. According to the document, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs convened a coordination meeting on July 30 to discuss export obstacles related to the presence of rare earth elements and/or radioactive elements in mineral products and their derivatives. Key points from the government coordination included: Exports of mineral products and their derivatives should still be conducted in accordance with existing trade regulations, including Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023 on Export Policies and Arrangements and Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023 on Prohibited Export Goods, with reference to subsequent amendments. Relevant regulations should be understood as applying to primary mineral products and their derivatives, rather than automatically applying to associated elements within these products. This is the most critical clarification for high-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and other processed mineral products. If radioactive elements are present in the product, as long as they fall under naturally occurring radioactive material, i.e., NORM (Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material), exports can still proceed. This helps mitigate the risk of trace radioactive elements automatically causing export obstructions. Export enterprises, surveyors, and customs authorities should refer to the export attributes of the primary mineral product and its derivatives when handling exports. This provides a basis for the gradual resumption of LS report issuance and customs clearance. The Indonesian Attorney General’s Office will concurrently issue a legal opinion, to support the clarification of relevant regulatory interpretations. The government plans to accelerate the revision of relevant regulations, including Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023, Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023, and Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 25/2018. Relevant discussions are expected to commence on August 3, 2026, targeting completion of revisions within approximately one week. SMM View: Short-Term Export Disruption, but Medium and Long-Term Signal of Tighter Mineral Oversight Released SMM believes that this rare earth testing incident is a short-term disruption but also an important policy signal. In the short term, as LS reports are progressively issued and customs enforcement parameters become clearer, the impact on NPI and MHP exports is expected to gradually ease. If cargo clearance continues to normalize, the impact on the overall nickel market supply-demand pattern is expected to be limited. However, the incident also demonstrates that Indonesia is strengthening its oversight of critical mineral element content, export documentation, and resource value protection. Even if this round of disruption is resolved relatively quickly, export enterprises may still face stricter testing requirements, clearer declaration obligations, and tighter coordinated supervision among agencies such as surveyors, customs, ESDM, and the Ministry of Trade in the future. Subsequent market focus should include: whether all previously delayed LS reports can be fully released. whether future cargoes will need to undergo complete testing for rare earth elements and radioactive elements. whether the government will clarify specific thresholds for rare earth elements, thorium, uranium, and NORM classification. whether the revised regulations can clearly distinguish between primary export products and associated trace elements. whether high-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products will face different enforcement standards. Overall, this incident should not be interpreted as Indonesia directly banning NPI or MHP exports, but rather as a process of regulatory clarification under the backdrop of strengthened oversight of rare earth and radioactive elements. If the subsequent implementation details are clarified quickly, the market impact will largely remain at the short-term level; if rules remain unclear, similar shipment delays and administrative friction could still recur.

Background: Pangkalpinang Case Triggered Wider REE Scrutiny Indonesia’s recent rare earth element (REE), or Logam Tanah Jarang (LTJ) , inspection issue appears to have been triggered by stricter government scrutiny following the Pangkalpinang case. The initial case was linked to alleged irregularities involving around 390 tonnes of REE-containing material and involved PT Putraprima Mineral Mandiri, PT Sucofindo, and the Pangkalpinang Customs office. This raised a broader regulatory question: when a mining product contains rare earth elements or radioactive elements as associated content, should it still be treated as its main export product, or should it fall under rare-earth-related export restrictions? This issue quickly affected Indonesia’s wider mineral export chain. Products such as NPI, ferronickel, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products are not exported as rare earth products. However, they may contain trace amounts of associated REE or radioactive elements. As a result, surveyors and customs became more cautious, causing delays in LS issuance and customs clearance for some cargoes. For the nickel industry, the issue became an immediate concern because both NPI/ferronickel and MHP exports were affected by additional testing requirements. Market feedback indicated that some cargoes were temporarily stuck, and the disruption was not limited to one company. Some traders also reported that QMB-related cargoes could not be shipped smoothly during the disruption period. Why REE Matters: Indonesia Moves to Protect Critical Mineral Value Before Export REE matters because rare earth elements are strategic materials used in high-value industries such as electric vehicles, permanent magnets, electronics, renewable energy, and defense-related materials. For Indonesia, the issue is not only about export clearance, but also about resource-value control. The government is increasingly focused on identifying and protecting critical mineral value before it leaves the country. The challenge is that REE often appears not as a standalone product, but as an associated or trace element in other mineral products. If every product containing small REE content is treated as a restricted rare earth export, normal mineral shipments could be delayed. However, if REE content is not monitored at all, Indonesia may lose control over strategic mineral value. The 17 rare earth elements generally include lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium, yttrium, and scandium . In the recent market discussion, testing was understood to cover these 17 REE elements, while radioactive elements such as thorium and uranium also became part of the inspection concern. The problem is that rare earth elements are often not produced as standalone products. They can appear as associated elements in other mining products. This creates a regulatory grey area. If every exported product containing trace REE must be treated as a rare earth export, then many normal mineral shipments could be delayed. But if associated REE content is not checked at all, Indonesia risks losing control over strategic mineral value. Therefore, the market concern is not only whether nickel exports are blocked. The larger concern is whether Indonesia is entering a new phase where exports of mineral products require more detailed chemical-content verification. What Happened in the Market: LS Delays and Additional Testing Disrupted Mineral Shipments According to SMM’s market understanding, the recent inspection requirement temporarily affected exports of several Indonesian processed mineral products. For nickel products, the impact was mainly reflected in three areas. LS issuance slowed down. The LS report is a key export document, so delays directly affected customs clearance and shipment release. According to SMM’s understanding on July 24, it is reported that around 102 surveyor reports were delayed due to differences in interpretation regarding REE checks during export verification. Some cargoes were temporarily stuck at ports. Market participants reported delays in NPI and MHP shipments, while some traders also mentioned that QMB-related cargoes faced similar obstacles. Exporters had to organize additional testing. The government required checks on 17 REE elements and radioactive elements in certain products. Some companies were still waiting for test results or clarification from surveyors and customs. Therefore, this was not a direct export ban on nickel products. It was mainly a temporary administrative and testing bottleneck caused by unclear implementation standards for associated REE and radioactive elements. Impact on the Nickel Market: NPI and other Nickel Product Exports Affected Mainly Through Shipment Delays For the NPI and ferronickel market, the short-term impact was mainly reflected in shipment timing rather than production. Some port-side cargoes were delayed because LS reports and customs clearance were affected. According to SMM’s latest market understanding, LS reports are currently being issued in batches, and some high-grade NPI cargoes at ports have started to be released. As the current disruption mainly occurred during the export documentation and clearance process, the direct impact on NPI production was limited. If LS issuance and customs clearance continue to normalize, the impact on the overall NPI market is expected to remain limited. At this stage, the issue is more related to temporary export procedure disruption rather than a confirmed structural restriction on NPI exports. For the MHP market, some shipments were also affected by the REE-related inspection requirement. According to market feedback, certain MHP cargoes, were temporarily unable to be shipped smoothly during the disruption period. Similar to NPI, the key issue was mainly related to LS issuance, testing requirements, and customs clearance rather than a direct restriction on MHP production. The government’s latest coordination result clarified that export procedures should refer to the main mining product and its derivatives, rather than automatically treating associated REE or radioactive elements as the basis for export restriction. Market Feedback and Industry Concerns: Lack of Technical Standards Created Uncertainty for Exporters Market feedback shows that the REE-related inspection requirement has created practical disruption for Indonesia’s mineral export chain. According to FINI Chairman Arif Perdanakusumah, at least 120 commodity vessels were unable to sail or leave ports due to the requirement to test rare earth element content. He noted that the situation caused losses not only for companies, but also for the government, mainly because there was still no clear regulation providing technical guidance on REE content limits. Industry associations generally understand that the policy is part of the government’s effort to improve mineral governance. However, they also emphasized that the technical implementation needs to be reviewed, especially because many mining products contain REE only as associated or trace elements rather than as the main product. This distinction is important for commodities such as nickel, bauxite, tin, and copper, where companies are licensed and designed to produce the main commodity, while REE content may naturally appear as a by-product or associated element. The bauxite industry also raised similar concerns. ABI Chairman Ronald Sulistyanto stated that the REE issue should be returned to its core technical framework and handled by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, as the ministry has the relevant mining and mineral expertise. He stressed that the key question is whether REE is the main product or only an associated element. If it is the main product, then specific export restrictions may apply. However, if it is only an associated element, the issue requires more detailed technical clarification rather than broad export disruption. IMA Executive Director Sari Esayanti also highlighted that most mining companies are currently oriented toward their main licensed commodity and existing processing design. In many commodities such as tin, bauxite, nickel, and copper, REE generally appears as an associated element. She also noted that most mining companies do not yet have sufficient facilities or technology to identify, separate, or economically utilize REE elements. As a result, new interpretations around REE reporting or export obligations have created uncertainty for business players. From the industry’s perspective, the most urgent requirement is technical certainty. Companies need clearer parameters, testing methodology, and reporting mechanisms so that all exporters, surveyors, and customs authorities apply the same standard. Without consistent technical guidance, similar shipment delays could occur again even if the current bottleneck is gradually resolved. Government Update and Resolution The most important update came from the Indonesian government coordination letter dated July 31, 2026. According to the letter, Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs held a coordination meeting on July 30 to discuss export obstacles related to REE and/or radioactive content in mining products and derivatives. Key points from the government coordination result: Exports should continue to follow existing trade regulations , including Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023 on export policies and arrangements, and Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023 on prohibited export goods, as amended by later regulations. The regulation should apply to the main mining product and its derivatives, not automatically to associated elements contained in those products. This is the most important clarification for NPI, ferronickel, MHP, alumina, and other processed mineral products. Products containing radioactive elements may still be exported if the content is classified as Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material, or NORM. This helps reduce the risk that trace radioactive content automatically blocks exports. Exporters, surveyors, and customs should refer to the main product classification when processing exports. This provides a basis for LS issuance and customs clearance to gradually resume. A Legal Opinion from the Attorney General’s Office will be prepared in parallel to support the regulatory clarification. The government plans to accelerate revisions to Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023, Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023, and Minister of ESDM Regulation No. 25/2018. Discussions are expected to start on August 3, 2026, with completion targeted within around one week. SMM View: Short-Term Export Disruption, but a Longer-Term Signal of Stricter Mineral Supervision SMM believes the REE inspection issue is a short-term disruption, but also an important policy signal. In the short term, the impact on NPI and MHP exports should gradually ease as LS reports are issued and customs interpretation becomes clearer. If cargo clearance continues to normalize, the impact on overall nickel supply-demand balance should remain limited. However, the event shows that Indonesia is strengthening supervision over critical mineral content, export documentation, and resource-value protection. Even after the current disruption is resolved, exporters may face stricter testing, clearer reporting requirements, and closer coordination among surveyors, customs, ESDM, the Ministry of Trade, and other agencies. Going forward, the market should monitor: Whether all delayed LS reports can be fully cleared. Whether future shipments will require full REE and radioactive-content testing. Whether the government will set clear thresholds for REE, thorium, uranium, and NORM classification. Whether the revised regulations clearly distinguish main export products from associated trace elements. Whether NPI, ferronickel, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products will face different implementation standards. Overall, this event should not be interpreted as a direct ban on NPI or MHP exports. It is more accurately a regulatory clarification process triggered by Indonesia’s stronger focus on rare earth and radioactive element content in mineral products. If implementation becomes clear quickly, the impact will remain temporary. If rules remain vague, shipment delays and administrative friction could reappear.

Zimbabwe exported US$782 million worth of lithium products in the first half of 2026, representing a 230% year on year increase from US$237 million in H1 2025, according to Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube during the country's mid-year budget review. Lithium accounted for approximately 12% of Zimbabwe's total mineral export revenue, ranking behind only gold and platinum group metals (PGMs), further strengthening its position as one of the country's key export commodities. The government expects lithium's contribution to increase further following the April 2026 commissioning of Zimbabwe's first lithium sulphate plant, marking a significant step in the country's strategy to move up the battery materials value chain. Zimbabwe continues to require foreign investors, particularly Chinese mining companies, to expand downstream processing capacity within the country. As part of its beneficiation policy, Zimbabwe plans to ban lithium concentrate exports from January 2027, encouraging producers to export higher-value processed lithium products instead. According to the Ministry of Finance, 2026 lithium production is forecast at 2.14 million metric tons, slightly below the 2.2 million metric tons produced in 2025. Earlier this year, Zimbabwe temporarily suspended lithium concentrate exports in February, citing irregularities and leakages in export activities. Official data also showed Zimbabwe exported 1.13 million metric tons of lithium products in 2025, suggesting inventories have accumulated at several mining operations as export restrictions and processing capacity continue to evolve. Zimbabwe's lithium sector remains dominated by major Chinese investors, including Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, Sinomine Resource Group, Chengxin Lithium Group, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group, and Tsingshan Holding Group, all of which have invested heavily in Zimbabwe's mining and downstream lithium processing projects. SMM Analysis: Zimbabwe is accelerating its transition from a lithium concentrate exporter to a battery materials producer through export restrictions and mandatory local beneficiation. While near-term concentrate exports may remain constrained, expanding domestic conversion capacity is expected to increase exports of higher-value lithium chemicals, reinforcing Zimbabwe's strategic role in the global EV battery supply chain.