[SMM Daily Review: Cost Support Met Cooling Downstream Prices, Putting Pressure on High-Grade NPI Prices] March 16 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.89, down 0.03 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.63, down 0.09 MoM.

[SMM Nickel Flash] March 16 News: Supply side, upstream cost support still remained. Demand side, downstream spot order procurement mainly focused on cargoes with higher nickel units. Amid declining stainless steel prices, downstream psychological price levels showed a downward trend. Overall, the stage of back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream had not yet ended, and high-grade NPI prices were capped by finished stainless steel products on the upside.

Overall, supply in China’s petroleum coke market continued to tighten, while downstream demand remained generally stable with support, and supply and demand fundamentals provided two-way support to the market. Coupled with recent fluctuations in crude oil prices and intensified cost-side bargaining, SMM expected that in the short term, the petroleum coke market would mainly remain in consolidation, with prices of different categories continuing to diverge.

A review of the data showed that auto production and sales in China remained at low levels, while exports stayed resilient. Excavators retreated from highs, and overall downstream performance was moderate. In terms of supply, HRC production was expected to rebound this week, but the pressure remained moderate. On exports, freight rates surged rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts, and most clients outside China stayed on the sidelines. Exporters in China reported mediocre order-taking for sheets & plates. Overall, HRC fundamentals were relatively stable in the short term, and prices would still mainly move sideways with the cost side.

[SMM Secondary Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Secondary aluminum alloy market quotations were generally lowered by 100 yuan/mt today. Affected by the pullback in futures, most enterprises lowered their quotations accordingly. However, as aluminum scrap raw material prices remained at a relatively high level, the cost side provided some support for ADC12 prices, and enterprises were generally restrained in the extent of their price adjustments. Demand side, downstream procurement still mainly met immediate needs, and no concentrated restocking driven by the price pullback had yet emerged. Wait-and-see sentiment in the market increased somewhat, and overall trading remained relatively stable.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fell Back as Steel Mill Price Adjustments Dampened Downstream Buying Interest SMM News, March 16: SS futures showed a downward pullback. Although the contract was relatively stable during Friday's night session, Monday's open was dragged lower by a broad decline across the nonferrous metals sector, with SS also pulling back to close at 14,185 yuan/mt by midday. In the spot market, affected by the decline in SS futures and an overall cut of 200 yuan/mt in the morning guidance prices from a major stainless steel mill, retail quotations in the market edged lower. Price fluctuations fueled stronger wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers, and intraday transactions were weak. However, market feedback indicated that transactions had been broadly steady earlier, and coupled with relatively strong expectations for the cost side of stainless steel, most market participants had not expected this round of price cuts. Traders' spot quotations fell by less than the reduction in the guidance price. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back after falling. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,045 yuan/mt, down 230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for Wuxi 304/2B were in the range of 245-445 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally stable; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt and the average price in Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coils were stable; Wuxi quotations for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were stable; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also stable. As the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April" begins, the stainless steel market is entering a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually resu...

[SMM Daily Chrome Commentary: Ore Prices Continued to Rise, While Ferrochrome Remained Temporarily Stable] March 16, 2026: Spot chrome ore prices continued to rise, while ferrochrome quotations saw no adjustment for the time being...

Ouyang Minggao pointed out that large-scale mass production of all-solid-state batteries will still require 3–5 years, with test vehicles expected to appear by the end of 2026. Sulphide electrolyte has fallen from 20 million/mt to the million-level range. However, he stressed that the technical difficulty is extremely high and advised consumers that they “need not wait,” as LFP batteries remain the “ballast stone” at present.

Iron ore futures fell first and then rebounded today. The most-traded I2605 contract finally closed at 809 yuan/mt, down 0.74% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price fell by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were only moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall, transactions in the spot market were relatively subdued. Last week, SMM's global iron ore shipments increased by 4.13 million mt WoW to 31.97 million mt, up 14.85%. Meanwhile, total port arrivals in China reached 28.13 million mt, up 5.06 million mt WoW, or 21.93%. The sharp surge in port arrivals further highlighted resistance on the fundamentals side. At the same time, the release of certain iron ore products from ports to some extent weighed on today's spot procurement demand. Together, these two factors curbed bullish sentiment in the iron ore market to a certain extent. Looking ahead, although the supply side was relatively loose this week, blast furnaces that had previously undergone maintenance are expected to resume production in a concentrated manner this week. Therefore, the market is expected to shift into a pattern of both strong supply and strong demand this week. Meanwhile, iron ore has again entered a structurally tight market, while the continued rise in freight rates has also provided cost support for iron ore. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or hold up well in the short term.

As of March 16, tungsten prices in China saw a slight correction, with APT quoted at 1.505 million yuan/mt. The market's fear of high prices was released, entering a phase of rational wait-and-see. Outside China, supply remained persistently tight, with the average APT Rotterdam price at $2,200/mtu, while weekly gains in tungsten scrap prices in India and Europe exceeded 25%.