【SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash Update】Orders for copper cathode rod at enterprises that have resumed operations have generally increased significantly, mainly supported by three factors: first, spot copper cathode rod supply is relatively tight; second, operating rates at secondary copper rod enterprises are relatively weak, and with the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap at a relatively low level, the substitution effect between copper cathode and copper scrap has weakened; third, downstream wire and cable enterprises have an urgent need to pick up goods, and concentrated restocking has boosted demand for copper cathode rod.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,146/mt and hit an early high of $13,153/mt. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower, dipping to $12,975/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,027.5/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume rose to 25,000 lots, and open interest to 306,000 lots, down 1,096 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,640 yuan/mt and climbed early to 102,080 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 101,200 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally settled at 101,700 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. Trading volume rose to 44,800 lots, and open interest to 195,000 lots, down 213 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Pulled Back, Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment Downstream] Affected by news-related factors, the Pr-Nd oxide market saw heightened wait-and-see sentiment among downstream metal plants, and some traders proactively cut prices to boost shipments. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices had pulled back to 845,000-850,000 yuan/mt.

SMM News, March 5: Data Brief: As of Thursday, March 5, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased 8.56% WoW from last Thursday, with total inventories up 209,200 mt YoY versus the same period last year, showing divergent performance across regions. By region, Shanghai’s copper cathode inventories continued to build up. Despite some recovery in consumption, inventories still trended upward due to continued arrivals of imported cargoes; in Jiangsu, recovering downstream consumption drove a slight destocking; in Guangdong, downstream enterprise consumption gradually recovered, and inventories edged down. Looking ahead, on the supply side, imported cargoes are expected to continue arriving at ports, while deliveries of domestic supply are expected to remain stable. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have resumed work and production; coupled with a pullback in copper prices, consumption has recovered notably. Based on the overall supply-demand pattern, supply is expected to remain normal next week and consumption is expected to recover steadily, with weekly inventories expected to see some destocking.

Today, the average spot prices of #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract were at a discount of 280 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average transaction price was 101,300 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

According to SMM data, the composite operating rate of copper bar enterprises in February was 22.78%, down 22.08 percentage points MoM and down 17.64 percentage points YoY.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,843/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,722/mt, then rose in a stepwise manner and climbed to $12,987/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,964.5/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 40,500 lots, and open interest reached 307,000 lots, down 4,847 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2704 contract opened at 100,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 100,200 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and hit a high of 101,530 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 101,330 yuan/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 92,000 lots, and open interest reached 194,000 lots, down 3,792 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 89,260 yuan/mt. Early in the session, the center moved lower and hit bottom at 88,740 yuan/mt, then the center rose all the way, touching a high of 90,860 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 90,220 yuan/mt, down 0.69%. Open interest rose to 5,896 lots, an increase of 88 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume rose to 8,845 lots, down 276 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, the situation in Iran continued to escalate, with intensified military maneuvering among parties, and the US Senate sought to limit Trump’s war powers; the market worried that tensions in the Middle East would further push up inflation expectations, driving the US dollar index to close higher, which was bearish for copper prices. In addition, high inflation expectations in the US weakened market expectations for further US Fed interest rate cuts, also weighing on copper prices. On the fundamentals, domestically produced copper and previously price-locked imported supplies continued to arrive, and overall market circulating supply remained ample. Demand side, consumption recovered, and purchase willingness continued to rebound. The SHFE copper 2604 contract settled at 101,660 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 90,220 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 101,949 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was -289 yuan/mt, with the spread remaining in backwardation and widening from the previous day.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to continue a mild recovery. Futures prices declined somewhat, and downstream enterprise orders increased. From the market structure perspective, the price spread between futures contracts for the next month and the C contract narrowed, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouse may decline. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive; coupled with social inventory remaining at high levels, overall circulating supply in the market is ample. Demand side, downstream enterprises continued to advance work and production resumptions, providing some support to spot premiums. Overall, spot premiums showed a pattern of slow recovery and gradual stabilization.

[SMM Analysis: What Impact Does the Middle East Situation Have on the Recycled Copper Raw Materials Market?] Recent turbulence in the Middle East has once again rattled global commodity markets. However, zooming in on the recycled copper raw materials segment, the market has remained remarkably calm. This article examines the trade structure and supply-demand dynamics to explain why the Middle East situation has, in practice, a relatively limited impact on Asia's scrap copper market.