As of March 9, SMM recorded total social inventory of copper cathode in major regions of China at 578,900 mt, up 1,700 mt from last week and up 70,400 mt from February 24, reaching a historical high. Over the same period, spot premiums for SMM #1 copper cathode gradually recovered from premium -260 yuan/mt on February 27 to parity on March 10. Overall, this upswing in spot premiums was mainly driven by the approach of delivery, under which the contango price spread between nearby and next-month contracts stayed around 300 yuan/mt; suppliers held prices firm and withheld sales, while about half of the material was converted into warrants and locked in, jointly tightening circulating supply. Observing the inventory accumulation pace, from the week of March 2 to March 9, inventories in three key regions increased by 14,400 tons, a growth of 2.65%. This marks a significant slowdown compared to the average weekly increase of approximately 45,000 tons during the period from February 5 to February 26. The deceleration in inventory buildup provided room for improvement in premiums. Current inventory accumulation primarily stems from two factors: First, the continued arrival of imported copper. According to SMM research, a substantial volume of imported copper continues to arrive recently, and it is expected that arrivals will not see a significant decline in March. The steady inflow of imported materials provides a continuous supply supplement to the domestic market and is a crucial support for maintaining high total inventory levels. The actual situation of imported arrivals in April remains to be confirmed, requiring close attention to customs data at month-end and changes in port clearance pace. Second, some cargoes are being delivered into bonded/warehouse warrant stocks. According to the electrolytic copper spot purchasing and selling sentiment indices for the Shanghai region recorded by SMM, the purchasing sentiment index rose from 2.08 on February 24 to 2.78 on March 10, while the selling sentiment index increased from 2.09 to 2.90 over the same period. Some downstream players have limited acceptance of current copper prices, maintaining a procurement strategy focused on immediate needs, resulting in selling sentiment slightly outpacing purchasing sentiment. Based on SMM's communications with enterprises: Upstream Producer 1: Recent consumption is relatively good, with daily sales around 2,000 tons. Upstream Producer 2: Currently produced electrolytic copper is primarily for export. Domestic inventories are low, so there's no rush to sell. Unwilling to sell when discounts are excessive. Trader 1: Quotations in the Changzhou market are higher than in Shanghai, mainly because locally available circulating cargoes are mostly warrants. Under the current spread structure, holders have high flexibility in selling – they can choose to sell or hold. Trader 2: The market is not short of supply; there are still a large number of warrants in warehouses awaiting digestion. However, due to the delivery mechanism, the incentive to sell depends on the premium level. Only when the premium exceeds the cost of capital will there be a strong willingness to liquidate. Downstream User 1: Recent orders are relatively robust. When copper prices fell on March 9, we already replenished inventories at the low point. Current raw material inventory can sustain operations until March 15. There are no immediate plans for further procurement; subsequent needs will primarily be met through long-term contract drawdowns. Downstream User 2: The recent spot premium has been quite firm, mainly due to the spread between months. Without such a high monthly spread, the premium would definitely not reach this level. In summary, this round of recovery in spot premiums is driven by multiple factors: First, the approach of delivery and the widening monthly spread strengthened holders' willingness to support prices. With delivery approaching, the Contango spread between months remains around 300 yuan/ton. Holders are underpinning prices, reluctant to sell, and strongly inclined to deliver stocks into warrants. Second, the inventory structure further amplified the tightness of available circulating supply. Taking Jiangsu as an example, out of 118,000 tons of social inventory, 94,000 tons were futures warrants. This portion is locked in delivery warehouses, making it difficult to form effective supply in the short term, leading to a phase of relative tightness in spot market circulating cargoes. According to SMM, some downstream companies in Jiangsu struggled to source materials in the market and opted to procure using the SMM Flat Copper Price average as a benchmark with minor adjustments. Third, the comprehensive resumption of work by downstream enterprises released procurement demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream processing enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai entered a full resumption phase. Surveys indicate that companies in the battery materials sector maintain high operating rates. Copper foil processors reported that downstream battery manufacturers sustain high operating rates, with March production schedules already showing characteristics of the peak season. Copper tube companies, supported by peak season stocking from the air conditioning industry, have operating rates exceeding pre-holiday levels. Although the recovery pace in the wire & cable and copper rod sectors is relatively slow, overall procurement demand has significantly improved compared to the first week after the holiday. Fourth, the decline in copper prices activated downstream restocking intentions. Recently, Shanghai copper futures prices retreated somewhat, stimulating downstream enterprises to purchase at dips. Previously suppressed by high copper prices, downstream players mostly maintained a cautious just-in-time procurement strategy, resulting in generally low raw material inventory levels. After the price pullback, some companies took the opportunity to replenish stocks, boosting spot transaction activity.

SMM News, March 9: Data Commentary: As of Monday, March 9, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased 3.37% WoW from last Monday, and also showed an inventory buildup versus last Thursday, with divergent performance across regions. Specifically, downstream consumption in Shanghai continued to improve, but concentrated arrivals of imported copper drove a slight inventory buildup; in Jiangsu, downstream demand recovered in tandem, yet arrivals of domestic copper increased, with market inflows and outflows basically balanced, and inventories showing a slight buildup; in Guangdong, driven by the pull back in copper prices and downstream enterprises resuming production, inventories continued to decline. Looking ahead, imported copper is still expected to arrive in a concentrated manner, while arrivals of domestic copper are expected to remain stable, with overall supply increasing steadily; demand side, the pullback in copper prices effectively stimulated downstream consumption, with rigid demand gradually being released. Survey results showed that the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod was expected to increase to 70.46% this week, up 7.99 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand, the market currently shows a pattern of “rising supply and recovering consumption,” and social inventory was expected to see some destocking this week.

SMM News, March 10: Today, Guangdong spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 120 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 110 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong spot #1 copper cathode was 101,335 yuan/mt, up 1,910 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,190 yuan/mt, up 1,925 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory ended a three-day decline and increased slightly, mainly due to higher arrivals. Although both inventory and prices rose, the price spread between futures contracts widened versus yesterday, which instead increased suppliers’ reluctance to sell; on the downstream side, after the sharp rise in copper prices, restocking enthusiasm fell versus yesterday, and overall trading was weaker than yesterday. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.62, down 0.13 from the previous trading day, and shipment sentiment was 3.12, down 0.12 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried by logging into the database). Overall, copper prices rose, but the widening price spread between futures contracts led suppliers to hold back sales; spot premiums increased, but overall trading was weaker than yesterday.

BC copper, the most-traded 2604 contract, opened at 88,740 yuan/mt, fluctuated rangebound early in the session and bottomed at 88,620 yuan/mt. The center of copper prices then gradually moved higher, and after the daytime open it continued to fluctuate upward, testing 90,460 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 90,110 yuan/mt, up 1.90%. Open interest fell to 5,829 lots, down 172 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume rose to 4,634 lots, indicating bears reduced positions. On the macro front, Trump claimed the Iran war was basically over and mentioned considering control of the Strait of Hormuz. Market concerns over geopolitical conflicts eased, driving international oil prices to retreat from highs; the US dollar index was under pressure, which was bullish for copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side saw sustained increases in availability, with ample replenishment from both domestic and imported sources; demand side, affected by rising copper prices, downstream purchasing sentiment was slightly restrained, and the pace of release in rigid demand slowed somewhat. SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 101,520 yuan/mt. Based on BC copper 2604 at 90,110 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 101,824 yuan/mt, and the price spread between SHFE copper 2604 and BC copper was -304. The price spread remained in backwardation and widened markedly versus the previous day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,794.5/mt. After dipping to $12,734/mt in early trading, its center rose throughout the session, touching a high of $12,968.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $12,919/mt, up 0.39%. Trading volume rose to 31,000 lots, an increase of 6,518 lots from the previous trading day; open interest rose to 303,000 lots, down 5,089 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,230 yuan/mt. After bottoming at 100,050 yuan/mt in early trading, its center rose throughout the session, touching a high of 101,250 yuan/mt at the close, and finally settled at 101,160 yuan/mt, up 1.28%. Trading volume fell to 46,000 lots, down 148,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest fell to 197,000 lots, down 3,094 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] As the delivery period approaches, spot discounts for SHFE copper are expected to continue narrowing steadily. From the perspective of market structure, the inter-month contango price spread between futures contracts has widened, significantly strengthening suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses. In particular, inventory in Jiangsu is mainly in the form of warrants, and suppliers tend to opt for delivery rather than spot sales, resulting in persistently tight availability of deliverable spot cargo. In addition, spot premiums quotes in Jiangsu are slightly higher than those in Shanghai. Against this backdrop, suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm intraday, and quotes in the second session were raised slightly, making procurement more difficult for some downstream enterprises. Looking ahead to tomorrow, under delivery-driven dynamics, spot premiums in Shanghai are expected to remain at current levels.

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated again recently, as the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to intensify, drawing renewed global attention to energy transportation security in the Gulf region.Given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the development of the situation, market risks are clearly skewed to the upside. This article provides a brief analysis of how the current conflict may affect the copper market going forward.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Easing Geopolitical Sentiment Supports Base Metals; SS Futures Hold Up Well and Fluctuate Upward SMM News on March 10: SS futures showed a hold-up-well, rangebound pattern. US President Trump said regarding the situation related to Iran that “the war is about to end,” which supported base metals futures and led to signs of strengthening. SS futures also rose in tandem, closing at 14,265 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, driven by stronger SS futures, traders turned more optimistic and confidence improved, with fewer low-priced supplies in the market. Downstream end-users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions remained steady. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated downward. At 10:15 a.m., SS2604 was quoted at 14,310 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums for 304/2B were in the 210-410 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally stable; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was stable and the average price in Foshan was stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted stable; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable. As the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April” begins, the stainless steel market is entering a window for demand recovery. Downstream demand is gradually returning as market participants resume work and resume production after the Chinese New Year holiday, but although transactions improved compared with the earlier period, the bustling peak-season momentum has yet to emerge. End-user procurement remains mainly just-in-time, and stockpiling willingness is relatively low. On the futures side, driven by risk aversion triggered by geopolitical conflicts...

March 10, 2026: Today, the average price of warrants was unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of B/L was unchanged from the previous trading day, while the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose by $2/mt from the previous trading day, with quotes referring to cargoes expected to arrive from mid-to-late March to early April. There were still relatively many offers in the market intraday, but transactions declined from yesterday. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/L arriving in late March was closed at $55-60/mt, quotation period (QP) April; EQ B/L arriving in late March and early April was offered at $25-30/mt, and EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was offered at $35/mt, quotation period (QP) May. ER copper and two-brand B/L for delivery within this week were offered at $60-65/mt, quotation period (QP) April.

Today, in North China, the average spot prices against the front-month contract for #1 copper cathode were at a discount of 100 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price was 101,305 yuan/mt, up 1,910 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.