SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. It touched a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, then the center moved lower to a low of $12,929/mt, and finally closed at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume came in at 17,000 lots, down 235 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 304,000 lots, up 279 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting an increase in bears' positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt at the open, then the center moved lower to a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume came in at 26,000 lots, down 62,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 189,000 lots, down 3,320 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting a reduction in bulls' positions overall.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of China Customs (GACC), China's total iron ore imports for January and February 2023 reached 211 million tonnes, with a cumulative value of approximately US$9.89 billion. The average import price across these two months was US$101.3 per tonne , a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. An analysis by month shows January imports totalled 110.35 million tonnes, representing a 7.77% decrease from the previous month but a 13.59% increase year-on-year. February imports were 99.67 million tonnes , down 9.68% month-on-month, yet showing a 5.80% increase year-on-year. The decline in import volumes is primarily attributed to frequent weather-related disruptions in key supplying nations like Australia and Brazil, which adversely affected mine-to-port rail networks and port loading operations, causing a temporary downturn in overseas shipments. Concurrently, operational activity at major domestic ports slowed during the Chinese New Year holiday, impacting the efficiency of vessel unloading, cargo warehousing, and customs clearance procedures. These combined factors contributed to the reduction in import scale during the first two months of 2023. Looking ahead to March, iron ore imports are forecast to experience a month-on-month rebound. This is anticipated due to shipping disruptions in the Middle East, caused by a partial blockade in the Strait of Hormuz , which may lead some vessels to be rerouted to China , thereby boosting import figures. Furthermore, weather-related logistical constraints are expected to ease, allowing shipments from producing countries to normalise. Finally, as March marks the end of the first quarter , some mining companies may increase their shipment volumes to meet quarterly targets, which would further support a recovery in import levels.

SMM News, March 5: Data Brief: As of Thursday, March 12, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 0.57% WoW from last Thursday, ending the inventory buildup seen over the previous three consecutive weeks; total inventories increased 218,400 mt YoY from the same period last year, while regional performance remained differentiated. By region, copper cathode inventory in Shanghai continued to build up. Although consumption recovered somewhat, inventories still trended upward due to the impact of concentrated arrivals of imported cargoes and delivery factors; in Jiangsu, inventories declined slightly, supported by recovering downstream consumption; in Guangdong, consumption rebounded significantly and warehouse withdrawals increased, with inventories already reaching an inflection point and expected to continue declining going forward. Looking ahead, on the supply side, imported cargoes continued to arrive at port and domestic arrivals remained steady; on the demand side, downstream enterprises fully resumed production, and consumption recovered markedly. Based on the overall supply-demand pattern, supply is expected to remain normal next week while consumption steadily rebounds, and weekly copper cathode inventories are expected to destock somewhat.

SMM, March 12: Guangdong: Spot premiums in the region continued to rise this week. Lower copper prices, coupled with an increase in terminal orders, lifted consumption among copper processing enterprises, driving inventory lower and supporting higher spot premiums. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 160 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from last Thursday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread in standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong stood at 0 yuan/mt. With the spread relatively small, there was no cross-region cargo transfer. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 90,800 mt, down 6,300 mt from last Thursday. Warrants totaled 51,300 mt, down 1,500 mt from last Thursday. As spot cargo supply decreased and discounts turned into premiums, warrants began flowing into the market. Specifically, warehouse arrivals this week were 13,100 mt/week, down 2,500 mt/week WoW and slightly below the annual average of 14,000 mt/week. Arrivals of both imported copper and domestic copper declined WoW this week. Warehouse withdrawals were 20,200 mt/week, up 8,600 mt/week WoW and far above the annual average of 14,200 mt/week. After the Lantern Festival, downstream enterprises fully resumed operations. In addition, many enterprises had not stockpiled much before the holiday, and actively replenished inventory after the holiday while copper prices remained low. Looking ahead to next week, although delivery is approaching, spot cargo has already shifted to premiums. Suppliers are expected to show weaker willingness to deliver cargo to warehouses for delivery, and imported copper arrivals have also not increased. Total supply is expected to be slightly lower than this week. On the demand side, demand is expected to remain at this week's high level. Therefore, inventory is expected to remain in a state where demand exceeds supply next week, with inventory fluctuating lower, and spot premiums are expected to continue rebounding. (The above information is based on market collection and the comprehensive assessment of the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Alloy Prices Continued to Hover at Highs, While Market Demand Was Significantly Suppressed] This week, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued to rise, but the pace of demand follow-up was relatively slow. In the short term, raw material costs remained at high levels, providing strong support for ADC12 prices; however, if prices continue to rise, the suppressive effect of high prices on demand will become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, as operating rates gradually recover, there are also expectations of a mild increase on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on the pace of downstream order release, the pressure on the market from the supply recovery process, and the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices.

SMM, March 12: Today in Guangdong, spot premiums and discounts for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at 160 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt, for high-quality copper; 40 yuan/mt premium, up 20 yuan/mt, for standard-quality copper; and 20 yuan/mt discount, up 20 yuan/mt, for SX-EW copper. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 100,860 yuan/mt, down 475 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,740 yuan/mt, down 470 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory continued to decline, with the drop widening, mainly due to increased warehouse withdrawals. As inventory kept falling and copper prices moved lower, suppliers actively held prices firm, and the price of standard-quality copper rose 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. However, downstream enterprises were less active in restocking than yesterday, and suppliers reported greater difficulty in making shipments than yesterday, with overall trading sentiment weaker than yesterday. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.51, down 0.23 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.57, up 0.15 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, inventory continued to decline and copper prices moved lower, prompting suppliers to actively hold prices firm, but downstream procurement was weaker than yesterday, and overall trading was average.

According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, China imported 316,000 tonnes of unwrought copper and copper products in February 2026. For the January–February period, cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products reached 700,000 tonnes, down 16.1% year-on-year, compared with 834,000 tonnes imported during the same period last year.

China’s silver prices fluctuated and consolidated this week. The price spread between the Gold Exchange TD price and the SHFE March contract kept narrowing, while a large volume of imported silver ingots entered the market to meet downstream demand, driving down spot premiums for physical silver ingots rapidly. Although many suppliers were reluctant to sell and mostly held firm on offers, downstream buyers actively negotiated for lower prices, and spot premiums in China had already fallen sharply by the end of the week. As of Thursday, in the Shanghai market, the tradable quote for domestic standard silver ingots against TD premiums had been lowered to 600-700 yuan/kg. A few suppliers held firm and were reluctant to sell at premiums of 700-800 yuan/kg against TD, but actual transactions were thin. In Shenzhen, imported large ingots were processed into small ingots before entering the market for trading. Some suppliers, concerned that spot premiums would continue to fall, sold at premiums of 400-500 yuan/kg against TD. Downstream buyers actively negotiated, but remained cautious and mostly stayed on the sidelines due to concerns over further declines in both absolute prices and spot premiums. Actual procurement transactions weakened, and some downstream purchasing demand was delayed until next week. Inventory side, silver social inventory across different regions rose and fell this week. Imported large ingots or silver ingots processed from imported crude silver raw materials entered social warehouses. As downstream demand remained strong, the increase in supply only led to a slight overall buildup in silver ingot social inventory this week.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode was quoted at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to premiums of 100 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average premium up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 100,625 yuan/mt, down 610 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 89,120 yuan/mt today. Early in the session, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and rose to 89,950 yuan/mt, then fluctuated in wide swings. After the daytime session opened, the center of copper prices fell sharply to a low of 88,920 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and finally closed at 89,400 yuan/mt, down 0.71%. Open interest reached 5,673 lots, an increase of 123 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume totaled 3,831 lots, indicating short position buildup by bears. From a macro perspective, the US February CPI rose 2.4% YoY, in line with market expectations. Although Trump said the war was expected to end quickly, uncertainty in the Middle East still remained, and the market stayed alert to escalating conflict. The US dollar index edged up, weighing on copper prices. Fundamentals side, supply was ample due to the impact of concentrated arrivals of imported cargoes and delivery factors, while downstream rigid demand was gradually released on the demand side. As of March 12, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 0.57% from before the Chinese New Year. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 101,010 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 89,400 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 101,022 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2603 contract and BC copper was -12, and the inverted spread remained in place but narrowed significantly from the previous day.