Recently, the center of copper prices continued to shift upward. The most-traded SHFE copper contract steadily climbed after hitting a periodic low of 91,500 yuan/mt on March 23, 2026, reaching a high of 103,130 yuan/mt as of April 15, representing a gain of 12.71% from low to high, with the latest closing price at 102,090 yuan/mt. The latest LME copper price stood at $13,262.5/mt. The interaction between macro sentiment and fundamentals jointly drove the market to hold up well. This round of copper price strength was not dominated by a single factor, but rather the result of a resonance of multiple factors including geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, inventory changes, and seasonal consumption patterns. Regarding the core driving logic behind the current copper price strength, SMM will provide a detailed analysis from three dimensions: the contraction of SX-EW copper supply outside China, the macro perspective on the US dollar and geopolitical developments, and China's copper inventories and supply-demand pattern. The details are as follows: （I) Sulphuric Acid Export Restriction Policies Strengthened Expectations for SX-EW Copper Production Cuts, and Supply Contraction Supported Copper Prices Sulphuric acid prices have been rising continuously since March, mainly due to the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 50% of the world's seaborne sulphur volume, has been disrupted, leading to an overall tightening of global sulphur supply. In China's sulphuric acid production, approximately 40% comes from sulphur-based acid production and 40% from smelting acid. China is highly dependent on sulphur imports, and the tightness in raw material supply has provided certain support for domestic sulphuric acid prices. The DRC is the world's second-largest copper-producing country, with production highly dependent on sulphuric acid. According to SMM, producing 1 mt of copper cathode locally requires 2–6 mt of sulphuric acid. Based on an average of 4 mt, annual sulphuric acid consumption is approximately 10 million mt, of which more than half relies on imports from the Middle East. The Middle East is both a critical global energy transportation route and a core hub for sulphur trade. The current US-Iran conflict has lasted 46 days, and local smelter sulphuric acid inventory is at low levels. Coupled with China, as a major global sulphuric acid exporter, imposing export restrictions, ex-China sulphuric acid supply has tightened further. The sulphuric acid shortage has constrained SX-EW copper output to a certain extent, creating expectations of a contraction in global copper cathode supply and providing clear bullish support for copper prices. According to SMM, SX-EW copper production in the DRC and Zambia has been gradually suffering losses recently, especially at some smaller smelters. The originally projected SMM global copper cathode balance surplus for 2026 is expected to slow down YoY. Expectations of copper cathode supply losses have strengthened, and the market is expected to gradually shift from a loose balance to a tight balance. The tightening supply-side expectations are set to provide support for copper prices. II. Easing geopolitical tensions coupled with inflation pullback push the US dollar index lower, providing support for copper prices Earlier, the escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to push up energy prices, increasing inflationary pressures. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled somewhat, and the market gradually priced in unchanged interest rates for the full year. Recently, signs of easing emerged in the geopolitical conflict. Trump stated that the US and Iran are expected to hold talks in Pakistan within the next two days. Pakistan called for a 45-day ceasefire extension, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations, with only the time and location yet to be determined. According to sources familiar with the matter, Iran is considering temporarily suspending shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz to create a favorable atmosphere for negotiations, and the US military has no plan to attack Iranian oil tankers. On April 14, Trump publicly stated that the military campaign against Iran was nearing its end, with positive signals being gradually released, The pullback in crude oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar index provided some support for copper prices. Meanwhile, the pullback in oil prices eased inflationary pressures, leaving room for subsequent interest rate cuts, and sentiment improved somewhat. III. Social Inventory Declined for Five Consecutive Weeks; Combined with Peak Consumption Season and Maintenance Cycle, Tight Supply-Demand Conditions Supported Copper Prices After the Lantern Festival, copper prices gradually pulled back, downstream consumption recovered somewhat, and SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China continued to destock from mid-March. Recently, copper prices rebounded somewhat, downstream purchasing became more cautious, and the destocking pace slowed down. As of April 13, SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China had decreased from 578,900 mt on March 9, 2026 to 299,800 mt, maintaining destocking for five consecutive weeks. China is currently entering the traditional peak consumption season. Copper scrap policies still carry certain uncertainties, and the overall operating rate of scrap utilization enterprises remains relatively low, providing some support for copper cathode rod consumption. Meanwhile, global smelters are entering a concentrated maintenance period in Q2, further tightening the supply side. The continued decline in inventory, combined with a tight supply-demand pattern, is providing some support for copper prices. Overall, the macro front and fundamentals are currently forming a degree of resonance, providing relatively positive support for copper prices. From a macro perspective, geopolitical conflicts showed signs of easing, the US dollar index pulled back somewhat, and earlier inflationary pressures were alleviated to some extent. On the fundamentals side, tightening sulphuric acid supply constrained SX-EW copper output outside China, SMM China social inventory continued to decline, and combined with relatively strong domestic fundamentals, the supply-demand pattern showed a tightening trend. However, as copper prices rebounded above 100,000 yuan/mt, downstream acceptance weakened somewhat, and recent purchase willingness also turned slightly cautious. Going forward, it is worth watching whether actual demand performance during the traditional peak season can meet expectations against the backdrop of high copper prices.

SMM News, April 2: Data Brief: As of Thursday, April 2, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell 14.04% WoW from last Thursday. Total inventory increased 53,800 mt YoY from the same period last year, marking three consecutive weeks of destocking. By region, in Shanghai, copper cathode inventory continued to pull back, supported by downstream consumption, while smelters gradually entered the maintenance cycle and arrivals tightened, with warehouse withdrawals significantly exceeding inflows. In Jiangsu, downstream consumption steadily recovered, and inventory continued to decline in tandem. In Guangdong, consumption remained robust, and coupled with tight supply in some areas, inventory kept falling. Looking ahead, on the supply side, imported copper cargoes continued to arrive, while arrivals of domestically produced copper decreased somewhat due to smelter maintenance. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mostly purchased as needed based on their production pace. Judging from the overall supply-demand pattern, China’s copper cathode supply is expected to remain tight next week, while consumption is expected to stay broadly stable, and weekly inventory is expected to continue destocking.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,223/mt. In early trading, it saw wide swings and climbed to $12,278/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of $12,153.5/mt, before fluctuating widely again and finally closing at $12,195/mt, up 0.44. Trading volume reached 15,300 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots, down 454 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 96,100 yuan/mt and hit a high of 96,240 yuan/mt in early trading. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower to 95,210 yuan/mt, before fluctuating rangebound and finally closing at 95,350 yuan/mt, down 0.05. Trading volume reached 36,500 lots, and open interest stood at 183,000 lots, down 2,394 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.

SMM News, March 27: Data Brief: As of Thursday, March 26, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell 18.29% WoW from last Thursday. Total inventory increased 92,900 mt YoY and has posted destocking for two consecutive weeks. By region, in Shanghai, copper cathode inventory continued to pull back as downstream consumption boosted warehouse withdrawals well above warehouse inflows; in Jiangsu, downstream consumption recovered steadily, and inventory continued to decline in tandem; in Guangdong, consumption remained robust, coupled with tight supply in some areas, driving a faster pace of inventory decline. Looking ahead, on the supply side, imported copper cargoes continued to arrive, while arrivals of domestically produced copper decreased somewhat; on the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement. Based on the overall supply-demand pattern, China’s copper cathode supply is expected to remain tight next week, while consumption is expected to stay broadly stable, and weekly inventory is expected to continue destocking.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,093.5/mt. Early in the session, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and fell to $11,754/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of $12,228.5/mt, before seeing wide swings and finally closing at $12,211.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 46,900 lots, open interest stood at 288,600 lots, an increase of 239 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 92,500 yuan/mt and fell to 91,820 yuan/mt early in the session. The center of copper prices then fluctuated upward to a high of 95,530 yuan/mt, before fluctuating rangebound and finally closing at 94,920 yuan/mt, down 0.91%. Trading volume reached 153,000 lots, open interest stood at 197,000 lots, down 6,302 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long liquidation.

[SMM Henan Copper Cathode Flash] The purchasing sentiment index in the Henan copper cathode market was reported at 2.6 today. Spot cargo available in the market was limited, and some downstream buyers mainly engaged in just-in-time procurement. Overall trading activity in the market was average.

[SMM Analysis] It cannot be ignored that the shortage of copper concentrates has gradually been transmitted to copper cathode. In the first half of 2024, there were continuous reports of production cuts and even shutdowns at overseas smelters. This indicates that despite the launch of new smelting and refining projects in the second half of the year (H2), the global supply of copper cathode will not ease.

[SMM Analysis: Deep B's performance is not enough, while transition to C is not yet complete] SMM believes that the backwardation structure of SHFE will weaken in the future market. The premise of our following discussion is based on the existing tariff levels in the US.

Recently, the copper market has shown stability, with copper prices continuing to fluctuate rangebound near the 5-day moving average.

On April 23, at the CCIE-2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo - Main Forum , hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., with Jiangxi Copper Corporation and Yingtan Inland Port Holding Co., Ltd. as main sponsors, Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. as a special co-organizer, and New Huang Group and Zhongtiaoshan Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. as co-organizers , SMM Big Data Director Jianhua Ye shared insights on the theme "Copper: Micro Drivers and Macro Volatility." Macro - Unpredictable Dynamics The manufacturing PMI of major global economies mostly remained below 50. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and US tariff policies, the copper/gold ratio declined, reflecting strong market risk aversion sentiment. The US economy's "stagnation," "inflation," and "recession" disrupted global asset prices. He analyzed data changes, including the US long-term and short-term Treasury yields, US non-farm payroll changes (previous values), the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the University of Michigan Current Conditions Index, the University of Michigan Expectations Index, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI (final value), and the US Markit Services PMI: Business Activity (final value). Key economic indicators in Europe began to recover, and a large-scale infrastructure investment fund was established to boost the economy. He elaborated on the gradual reduction of Eurozone interest rates and the slowdown in the decline of Eurozone construction and retail confidence. China's domestic consumer market needs further stimulation, while the export market will face greater challenges, and local bond issuance has accelerated. He discussed the rising inventory area in the real estate sector, the continued negative growth in construction and completion areas, as well as export data and monthly local bond issuance. The US reciprocal tariffs, anchored on the "trade deficit," aim to address the $36 trillion+ US debt, causing significant market volatility. At 4:00 AM Beijing time on April 3, reciprocal tariffs were imposed on approximately 60 countries with the largest trade imbalances with the US, with rates far exceeding market expectations. An additional 10% baseline tariff will take effect at 12:01 AM ET on April 5, and reciprocal tariffs will take effect at 12:01 AM ET on April 9. Canada and Mexico are excluded from this round of tariffs. Previously delayed tariffs will soon be implemented, and goods compliant with the USMCA will continue to be exempt. Steel, aluminum, automobiles & parts, as well as copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber, and energy products, which are already subject to a 25% tariff under Section 232, are not affected by the reciprocal tariffs. Supply: Global Copper Supply Tightening The shortage of copper concentrates has intensified, and the short-term supply-demand structure is unlikely to improve. He analyzed the projected global copper concentrate supply-demand balance from 2021 to 2030 (including supply and demand disruption rates), annual long-term contract benchmark TC for copper concentrates, and the comparative advantages of copper smelting raw materials. In 2024, US exports of secondary copper raw materials are expected to exceed 900,000 mt, equivalent to approximately 700,000 mt of metal content. In the long term, China's copper scrap supply will increasingly rely on domestic production growth, with a higher proportion flowing to smelters. Under tariff expectations, COMEX prices are strongly leading, with the US siphoning off global copper cathode. He elaborated on the LME-COMEX copper price spread, the ratio of LME registered warrants to cancelled warrants, visible copper cathode inventories at the three major global exchanges, and total COMEX copper cathode inventories. China's imports of copper cathode from Chile and Peru have significantly decreased, while the proportion from Africa continues to expand. Based on the share of China's major copper cathode import countries, he reached the above conclusion. With the decline in imported copper content, domestic copper cathode inventories are expected to decrease rapidly. He introduced perspectives from SMM China's copper cathode production, spot import profit/loss & Yangshan copper premiums, China's copper cathode imports, and total domestic social inventories. Demand: Divergence in End-Use Demand Structure Although dependence on US trade is decreasing, the US remains China's largest single trading partner. In 2024, exports to the US accounted for 14.7% of China's total export value. Asia is the main export market for China's copper semis, making it susceptible to US pressure. By 2025, US copper scrap exports to China will decline significantly. In 2024, exports of copper semis to the North American market reached 60,000 mt, accounting for 7.4% of total exports. Nearly 20% of China's copper scrap imports in 2024 came from the US. In 2025, the State Grid Corporation of China plans to invest over 650 billion yuan, an increase of more than 7% YoY compared to the actual investment in 2024. The construction sector remains in a negative growth trend and cannot yet provide positive feedback for copper consumption. The negative growth in construction and real estate-related data has narrowed. SMM expects copper consumption in the construction sector to decline by nearly 2% YoY in 2025. "Rush exports" demand persists, with domestic demand growing during the traditional peak season. The operating rate of copper pipe & tube remains high, but concerns about export demand are intensifying. The operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in April is expected to be 85.81%, up 0.58 percentage points MoM but down 0.72 percentage points YoY. Before the tariff policy takes effect, "rush exports" demand remains strong, with optimistic performance in March exports of air conditioners and copper pipe & tube. Domestic demand will strengthen in April during the traditional peak season. Although tariff disruptions increase, export growth is weaker than domestic growth. Overall, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube in April will stabilize at highs. In the medium and long term, the new energy sector remains one of the main drivers of global copper consumption growth. Global Copper Cathode Balance and Price Forecast ► In 2025Q1, before the implementation of Trump's tariffs, market risk sentiment increased, particularly regarding copper tariffs, which temporarily boosted COMEX copper prices, significantly widening the LME-CME price spread and maintaining a high spread. The US siphoned off a large amount of copper. Additionally, since December, US economic data has been relatively strong, inflation expectations have risen, and commodities have generally stabilized and rebounded. Domestically, favorable policies introduced at the beginning of the year boosted macro sentiment, benefiting copper prices. Fundamentally, the expected expansion of ore supply deficits and reduced copper cathode supply in 2025 also supported copper price increases. ► In 2025Q2, with the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs and intensified countermeasures from China, a tariff storm emerged. Coupled with weakening US economic data, the market anticipated economic damage from tariffs, leading to a sharp drop in copper prices, a global economic barometer. Subsequently, China may introduce various favorable policies to stimulate domestic demand. The US-China trade war began with significant measures, and copper prices may gradually rebound, supported by fundamentals (accelerated destocking outside the US, low inventories, and short squeeze expectations under a strong backwardation structure) and domestic favorable policies. However, it will be difficult to return to 80,000 yuan/mt. ► In 2025Q3 and Q4, as the negative sentiment from the trade war subsides, copper prices may stabilize. However, under the economic recession pressure caused by high tariffs, the surplus of copper cathode may increase. In Q3, copper prices may face upward pressure amid the supply-demand weakness caused by smelter production cuts and consumption damage. In Q4, the consumption damage caused by the trade war may weaken, global economic recovery expectations may gradually strengthen, and the effects of earlier relatively loose fiscal policies in the US and China may become evident. With high expectations for shortages in ore and copper cathode, copper prices may shift upward again. Click here to view the special report on the CCIE-2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo.