[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, most coke producers were in a loss-making position, and some coke producers saw inventory buildup, which continued to suppress their production incentives, with coke oven operating rates edging down. Demand side, steel mills’ coke inventory was at a reasonable level, and they were still mainly purchasing as needed; steel mills showed signs of controlling arrivals. In addition, the impact of steel mills’ voluntary production cuts during the Two Sessions led to a decline in the daily average hot metal output, weakening rigid demand for coke. Overall, coke fundamentals remained unoptimistic, and cost support was expected to weaken; in the short term, the coke market may remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, during the major meetings, apart from some coke enterprises in regions such as Tangshan, Hebei being passively subject to 20%–30% production restrictions, most enterprises in other regions maintained normal production, and supply was relatively ample. Demand side, due to the Two Sessions, some steel mills proactively implemented production cuts; this week, hot metal continued to decline, and rigid demand for coke continued to weaken. Overall, coke fundamentals were weak, but supported by gains in coke futures, bearish sentiment temporarily dissipated, and the coke market may run steadily in the short term.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,418/mt Ni in metal content, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $49,918/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 85.5-86.5, and the payable indicator for MHP cobalt element (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 91. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,777/mt Ni in metal content.

Raw material side, this week lithium carbonate and nickel sulphate prices fluctuated, while cobalt sulphate prices began to drop slightly after remaining stable for an extended period.

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices declined slightly. Raw materials, nickel sulphate prices edged up today, cobalt sulphate prices declined again, and manganese sulphate prices held steady.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,549/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $49,819/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 85-86, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 91. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,910/mt Ni.

Philippine Ore Prices Strengthened Sharply, With Multiple Supply-Side Risks Supporting the Cost Floor Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of pricing, Philippine nickel ore CIF China: NI 1.3% grade at $58-63/wmt, NI 1.4% grade at $65-69/wmt, and NI 1.5% grade at $72-76/wmt, up $4 from the previous week. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $62.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $69.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, the Philippines was in a transition to the dry season, but affected by a developing low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao, heavy rainfall continued in mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon Island. Although Metro Manila and most of Luzon had sunny and hot weather, the probability of weekly rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and the Caraga region was “high to extremely high,” and strong thunderstorms and scattered rainfall were expected to further intensify from March 9 to 13. Influenced by the LPA trough and the Dongfeng, this persistent rainy weather could continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in the southern regions mentioned above. Currently, available spot cargo in the market was limited; coupled with the tightness in nickel ore supply and a potential demand gap driven by expectations of RKAB quota cuts in Indonesia, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have risen markedly in recent periods. As of Friday, March 6, China’s port nickel ore inventory stood at 5.73 million mt, down 370,000 mt WoW. Current total port nickel ore inventory was equivalent to metal content of about 45,000 mt Ni. Demand side, domestic NPI prices rose this week, while spot transaction prices fell by about 1,092.6 yuan/nickel unit. From the perspective of smelters’ procurement departments, given ample earlier stockpiling and limited acceptance of recently extremely high-priced ore, most were currently staying on the sidelines. In terms of ocean freight rates, ocean freight rates rose sharply recently due to the situation in Iran, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Tianjin Port at $11/mt. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs. Indonesia Market: Tight Supply and Demand Drove Premiums Higher; Authorities Clarified the RKAB Supplement Mechanism Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose significantly this month. For the first half of March, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM data on Indonesia nickel ore premiums, the average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $34, $38, and $38.5/dmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2–72.2/wmt. The dual strengthening of premiums this month reflected the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota reductions; meanwhile, the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up in tandem to $24–26/wmt. Supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 6, Sulawesi and Halmahera were in a period of wild swings at the tail end of the rainy season, and intermittent heavy rainfall continued to hinder mine logistics. Morowali was currently overcast with extremely high humidity (94%); although rainfall remained light for now, a strong rainfall system was expected around March 13, with precipitation reaching 48 mm. Konawe likewise remained mostly cloudy with daily thunderstorms. Meanwhile, Halmahera was set to face a high-precipitation weekend, with the probability of thunderstorms as high as 65% on March 7–8. Although Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecast that the dry season would arrive earlier in April, the above areas were still unable to reach full-load mining and loading capacity due to highly saturated soil moisture and localized gusts. Under the dual pressure of tight tradable availability and uncertainty over RKAB quotas, some NPI smelters were forced to significantly step up procurement this month to secure raw material supply. While spot supply of limonite ore was relatively ample, a tailings dam landslide incident at certain MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park kept the relevant production lines operating at low load, resulting in a phase of overall demand weakness. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over uncertainty in RKAB approvals, raw material stockpiling needs for newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices were expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain elevated. Policy side, regarding recent widespread market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly increased by an additional 25%–30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026 that RKAB increases would be based on individual assessments of enterprises’ production capability and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would begin in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this move was a routine regulatory process to optimize resources, not a passive offset against the previous production cap policy.

[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, losses at coke producers have widened, dampening their production incentives. Coke supply is expected to tighten slightly, but coke producers are seeing inventory buildup, and supply remains loose for now. Demand side, the Two Sessions have already convened, and some steel mills have already carried out blast furnace maintenance; the daily average hot metal output has declined, weakening rigid demand for coke. Meanwhile, after the first round of coke price cuts, steel mill profits remain poor, and they still intend to push for lower prices. Overall, the coke market may be generally stable with slight fall and in the doldrums; after the first round of proposed cuts, expectations remain for a second round of price cuts.

Intermediate Product Nickel Market Trading Was Sluggish, Awaiting Guidance From Papua New Guinea Tender Results

So far, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $15,658/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $49,660/mt Co. The MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 88-89, and the payable indicator for MHP cobalt element (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 91. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $16,021/mt Ni.