Conclusion first: cobalt prices in H2 are more likely to rise than fall. Any disruption from external factors could further exacerbate tight supply, thereby pushing cobalt prices higher. Most Chinese-invested miners own self-built smelters or have cross-shareholding and long-term close cooperative relationships with downstream enterprises. Therefore, the DRC export quotas obtained by Chinese-invested companies will be delivered to China's downstream market in a timely and stable manner. We calculate the quotas of Chinese-invested and foreign-invested companies separately. I. Based on current market conditions, we make the following assumptions: 1. DRC shipment pace: maintaining current efficiency. It is expected that in July this year, goods from 25Q4 and 26Q1 will arrive at ports successively; by the end of 2026, goods from 26Q2-3 will arrive in batches. 2. Indonesian MHP supply: even with disruptions from external factors such as Middle East geopolitical conflicts, cobalt supply from Indonesian MHP will at least not decline YoY. Total cobalt imports from MHP in 2025 were 53,000 mt in metal content, and 2026 is expected to be no less than 53,000 mt in metal content. 3. China recycling volume: annualized based on enterprise recycling volumes in 26Q1. Monthly ternary cobalt recycling volume is expected to be no less than 1,000 mt in metal content, and high-cobalt recycling volume no less than 1,500 mt in metal content. 4. Raw material supply structure: intermediate product supply directed to ternary cathode is expected to decline to approximately 7,000 mt in metal content in H2 2026; no major shifts in other existing supply structures. 5. China inventory buffer: current upstream and downstream enterprise raw material inventories can sustain supply through June this year. Before intermediate products arrive in bulk during June-July, no supply disruption will occur across the market. Moreover, apart from refined cobalt, other raw materials no longer have large inventories. II. Supply and Demand 1. Ternary sector: Demand side: full-year 2026 ternary cobalt demand is estimated at 58,000 mt in metal content. Supply side: cobalt imports from MHP in 2026 at 53,000 mt in metal content; ternary cobalt recycling at approximately 12,000 mt in metal content; intermediate product supply to ternary in H2 2026 at 7,000 mt in metal content. 2. LCO, cathode additives, and cobalt powder: Demand side: total full-year 2026 demand for LCO, cathode additives, and cobalt powder is estimated at 81,000 mt in metal content. H1 is primarily focused on digesting inventories and high-cobalt recycling, with H2 (July-December) demand at approximately 42,000 mt in metal content. Supply side (H2): non-DRC quota sources combined with high-cobalt recycling are expected to provide at least 12,000 mt in metal content; from DRC export intermediate products, counting only the Chinese-invested enterprise portion, approximately 40,000 mt in metal content can be supplied. Total H2 supply is approximately 52,000 mt in metal content. 3. Refined Cobalt Rigid demand production: certain downstream industries have rigid demand for refined cobalt, consuming approximately 400 mt in metal content of intermediate products per month for refined cobalt production, with all raw materials being intermediate products. This volume is not high overall but remains stable. Inventory impact: under the high-priced intermediate product environment, the current large inventory of refined cobalt will have a significant impact on the production side. Therefore, we currently calculate based primarily on rigid demand production. 4. Chemicals Industries such as feed and adhesives have relatively stable monthly demand for cobalt hydroxide. On average, monthly demand is approximately 1,000 mt in metal content, with raw materials primarily being MHP. Considering all the above, inventory buildup by the end of 2026 is 8,000 mt in metal content for MHP and 7,000 mt in metal content for intermediate products. Miner behavior: some miners are currently purchasing intermediate products on the market at relatively high prices, close to or reaching the level of $26/lb. Judging from this behavior, market participants generally have expectations for the H2 market, and the likelihood of selling at low prices is relatively small. III. Future Expectations Based on the above supply-demand balance analysis, whether on the upstream supply or downstream demand side, any shortfall in supply versus expectations or any recovery in downstream demand will impact the current fragile balance, at which point foreign-invested goods will need to enter the market to supplement supply. Therefore, the overall tone for the 2026 cobalt market is considered to be more likely to rise than fall. Wang Zhaoyu 15927163529

Refined Cobalt: Spot refined cobalt prices hovered at lows this week. Supply side, the firm-pricing sentiment persisted, with mainstream smelters holding ex-factory quotes steady and traders maintaining spot-futures price spreads at parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises saw weak orders and adopted a cautious purchasing stance, mostly procuring in small batches at high frequency to control inventory risks. However, after prices stabilized at low levels, some enterprises turned bullish on the outlook, and restocking willingness improved. In the short term, weak demand continued to weigh on prices, but high raw material costs and the reverse price spread provided strong floor support. Prices were expected to remain range-bound; as demand recovers going forward, refined cobalt still has upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: Cobalt intermediate product prices held up well this week, with spot quotes edging up gradually. Supply side, suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, and some miners also participated in market purchases, further intensifying the tight spot supply situation. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness recovered somewhat, but as cobalt salt prices struggled to catch up, enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach with inquiries, and actual transactions were limited. It was learned that DRC export volumes in March increased significantly, but most cargoes currently remained stranded at South African ports or in transit by land, with a low proportion having secured vessel bookings. Concentrated arrivals at ports were not expected until June–July. As downstream orders gradually materialize and restocking demand is released going forward, cobalt intermediate product prices still have upward momentum. Cobalt Sulphate: The cobalt sulphate market saw sluggish trading activity this week, with prices continuing a gradual downward trend. Supply side, mainstream smelters lowered quotes to 94,000-97,000 yuan/mt; some recycling enterprises and traders, under cash flow pressure, made concessions on shipments, with low-quality cargo prices staying at 90,000-93,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream orders remained uncertain, compounded by top-tier enterprises having ample inventory and low-priced cargo dampening purchase sentiment, resulting in overall weak restocking willingness downstream, with only small volumes of low-priced resources procured on an as-needed basis. Cost side, cobalt intermediate product prices rose, and Indonesia's nickel tax policy pushed up smelting costs, significantly weakening enterprises' willingness to cut prices; meanwhile, some downstream players believed prices were already at low levels and their own inventory was approaching safety margins, generating restocking willingness. Cobalt sulphate prices may gradually stabilize, and once procurement demand recovers, prices are expected to see a corrective rebound.

Jakarta, April 14, 2026 – Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, revising the calculation formula for the Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM). The regulation will officially take effect on April 15, 2026, marking a significant shift in resource valuation policy for Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. The new decree revised the previous Decree No. 268.K/2025, with core changes aimed at reflecting the true commercial value of nickel ore and its associated minerals: 1. Adjustment of the Correction Factor (CF): · The correction factor for 1.6% grade nickel ore was significantly raised from the original 17% to 30%. · For every 0.1% increase or decrease in nickel grade, the correction factor will be adjusted inversely by 1%. 2. Inclusion of Associated Mineral Value: · The new formula for the first time explicitly incorporated associated minerals such as cobalt (Co), iron (Fe), and chromium (Cr) into the HPM calculation. · Cobalt: Included when content >= 0.05%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Iron: Included when content <= 35%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Chromium: The correction factor set at 10%. 3. New Pricing Formula: HPM Nickel Ore = [(Nickel HMA * %Ni * CF) + (Cobalt HMA * %Co * CF) + (Iron HMA * %Fe * CF * 100) + (Chromium HMA * %Cr * CF * 100)] * (1-MC) (Note: MC refers to moisture content) Assumptions: · Average grade: moisture content 35-40%, cobalt content 0.07% (HPAL ore), iron content 25% (saprolite ore), chromium content 3%. Based on SMM's estimates, HPM prices have the most obvious room for upward movement. · Here, HPAL ore refers to nickel ore with a grade of 1.3% and below, while saprolite ore refers to nickel ore with a grade above 1.3%.Since HPAL ore has a higher cobalt grade and iron content generally above 35%, the HPM formula for HPAL ore here only considers nickel, cobalt, and chromium, with iron not priced in. · Since saprolite ore has a lower cobalt grade and iron content generally below 35%, the HPM formula for saprolite ore here only considers nickel, iron, and chromium, with cobalt not priced in. Note: This is only a scenario assumption based on publicly available information and does not constitute actual market action advice. Please refer to actual conditions. Driven by the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the benchmark price, the nickel ore benchmark price center shifted significantly upward, providing a higher pricing anchor for mine-side sales. Overall, the CF (adjustment coefficient) for 1.6% grade nickel ore increased from 17% to 30%, driving a significant rise in the benchmark price, reflecting a policy and market reassessment of the value of medium-to-high-grade ore. As the CF increased, the linkage between ore prices and nickel content further strengthened, and price elasticity amplified accordingly. On the other hand, under the current pricing system, by-product value has been fully incorporated into consideration. In particular, the cobalt pricing mechanism provided significant support for low-grade ore (such as limonite). Benefiting from the increase in cobalt prices and its recovery value, the economics of limonite improved notably, and its price performance showed a more prominent upward trend compared to the past, gradually changing the market's traditional perception of it as a "low-value resource." Based on SMM prices, Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.2% grade (delivered price) averaged $30.5/wmt, far below the new HPM benchmark price of $40.18/wmt. The CIF price of 1.2% grade HPAL nickel ore may subsequently rise to $48.18 (40.18+8)/wmt. Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.5% grade (delivered price) averaged $70.7/wmt, above the new HPM benchmark price of $57.13/wmt, so theoretically absolute price fluctuations would not be as drastic. Assuming the tax cost increase driven by the HPM benchmark price rise is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute price of saprolite nickel ore may rise to $72.47/wmt after the new HPM benchmark price takes effect. **MHP** According to SMM estimates, taking 1.2% grade nickel ore as an example, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, the new nickel ore HPM is expected to be raised to $40.18/wmt, compared with the previous nickel ore HPM of $16/wmt. Currently, SMM's latest Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore 1.2% (port arrival price) average price is $30.5/wmt, lower than the new HPM. Assuming the HPM benchmark price serves as the minimum price floor for mines, after factoring in freight costs, the selling price of 1.2% grade HPAL ore after April 15 would be $48.18/wmt. Based on this estimate, the cost of producing MHP from externally purchased HPAL ore (after cobalt credit) will rise to approximately $17,760/mt Ni, an increase of approximately $2,600/mt Ni. **NPI** According to SMM estimates, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, taking 1.5% grade nickel ore price as an example, the nickel ore HPM price under the old formula was $26.66/wmt, while the nickel ore HPM price calculated under the new formula is $57.13/wmt, still lower than the current 1.5% Indonesia's local port arrivals under domestic trade price of $70.7/wmt. Assuming the tax cost increase resulting from the HPM price hike is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute nickel ore price is forecast to rise to approximately $72.47/wmt after the new policy is implemented. Based on this estimate, this adjustment will push the full cost of NPI up to $15,741.51/mt Ni, an increase of $570.48/mt Ni from the current level, representing a rise of approximately 3.76%, which is expected to provide further upward support for NPI prices. **Refined Nickel** On the basis of the above-mentioned increases in MHP and high-grade nickel matte raw material costs, the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated high-grade nickel matte is estimated at approximately $21,773/mt Ni, an increase of $622/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment; the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) is estimated at approximately $20,560/mt Ni, an increase of $2,652/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment. In addition, based on the LME spot settlement price on April 14 and the nickel intermediate product transaction coefficients (91.5% for MHP and 92.5% for high-grade nickel matte), the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased high-grade nickel matte is $18,705/mt Ni, and the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased MHP is $19,378/mt Ni. Both costs are higher than the current LME nickel prices, indicating relatively strong cost support. In summary, Indonesia's ESDM reform of the HPM benchmark price formula represents a systematic restructuring of the pricing system, upgrading nickel ore pricing from "single nickel element pricing" to "nickel + cobalt + iron + chromium multi-element comprehensive pricing," reshaping the nickel ore cost basis from multiple dimensions. In the short term, the policy landing beyond expectations has already driven nickel prices to rise significantly, with market sentiment leaning bullish; however, medium and long-term impacts depend on cost pass-through efficiency, the pace of high inventory digestion, and downstream demand absorption capacity. Going forward, close attention is still needed on the actual implementation by Indonesian mine enterprises, smelter procurement price negotiation outcomes, and the substantive magnitude of price increases for intermediate products such as MHP and NPI. Risk warning: According to ESDM Ministerial Decree NO.144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, the benchmark ore price (HPM) is the minimum selling price for metal mineral sales. If metal minerals are sold below the HPM price, the HPM must still be used as the basis for calculating tax obligations and as the benchmark price for levying production fees (royalties). Therefore, the above costs are calculated based on the assumption that the wet-process ore selling price is no lower than the new HPM benchmark price. The resulting integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) production cost of refined nickel is relatively high. However, the actual selling price of nickel ore will need to be negotiated between mines and smelters, and there is a possibility that the final transaction price may be lower than the new HPM benchmark price.

Nickel Intermediate Product Market Weekly Review: Continued Weakness in Both Supply and Demand, MHP Payables Under Pressure

Refined Cobalt: Spot prices of refined cobalt continued to fluctuate downward this week, dragged by capital flows and macro sentiment. Supply side, mainstream smelters maintained stable ex-factory quotes; after spot prices moved lower, traders showed stronger willingness to hold prices firm, and the spot-futures price spread rebounded to above parity. Demand side, the pullback in prices slightly stimulated downstream procurement demand, but end-users remained cautious due to fluctuations in associated metal prices. The DRC announced an extension of the Q4 2025 cobalt intermediate product export quota, and uncertainty over intermediate product exports persisted. The structural tightness in China's raw material supply continued, providing bottom support for cobalt prices. Cobalt Intermediate Products: Cobalt intermediate product prices continued to run steadily this week, with the market remaining in a "quoted but not traded" state. Supply side, apart from the domestic miner quotes from last week, other suppliers maintained a bullish stance and held off on quoting, with available supplies remaining tight. Demand side, most smelters adopted a cautious procurement stance due to insufficient rebound momentum in cobalt salt prices, and actual transactions were scarce. Based on current shipping progress, the concentrated arrival of cobalt intermediate products at ports may be delayed to June-July. Once downstream orders materialize and restocking demand kicks in, intermediate product prices still have room to move higher. Subsequent attention should be paid to the DRC's export approval progress and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: Spot prices of cobalt sulphate moved sideways this week. Supply side, the raw material shortage pattern continued, underpinning smelter quotes, with the mainstream price range maintained at 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt; some recycling enterprises and traders continued to offer concessions for shipments due to capital turnover pressure, with individual quotes dipping to 90,000-93,000 yuan/mt, but such supplies were limited in volume, not enough to shake the mainstream price center. Demand side, market sentiment remained subdued, with downstream enterprises holding conservative expectations for subsequent orders, and current raw material inventory still at safe levels, leading to weak restocking willingness, with only sporadic purchases of low-priced supplies and insufficient overall transaction activity. In the short term, the market remained in a destocking phase, with sellers and buyers in a stagnant tug-of-war, and prices lacked breakthrough momentum. From a medium and long-term perspective, the uncertainty of DRC raw material supply provides bottom support on the cost side; once downstream inventory is effectively depleted and procurement demand recovers, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to see a corrective rebound.

This Week, the MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte Markets Showed a Pattern of Weak Supply and Demand on Both Sides, with the Coefficient Remaining Stable

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt prices trended downward under the influence of capital flows and macro sentiment. Supply side, mainstream smelters kept ex-factory prices stable; after spot prices fell, traders' sentiment to hold prices firm strengthened, and spot-futures price spread quotations were raised to above parity. Demand side, lower spot prices improved downstream purchasing sentiment and slightly lifted transactions, but affected by fluctuations in related metals, downstream buyers remained cautious and mainly made just-in-time procurement. This week, the DRC announced an extension of cobalt intermediate product export quotas for Q4 2025, increasing export uncertainty; the structurally tight raw material situation in China remained unresolved, providing bottom support for cobalt prices. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices edged up. The DRC announced its quota extension policy, under which Q4 2025 quotas can be extended by up to one month, and Q1 2026 quotas can be extended to the end of June; it is understood that the core reason for the current slow approval process for intermediate products is the lack of local detection personnel. Supply side, some miners sold small volumes of futures cobalt intermediate products this week, with quotations above $25.9/lb. Demand side, most smelters remained on the sidelines as cobalt salt prices struggled to catch up and available-for-sale intermediate products were scarce, and actual transactions were sluggish. Overall, based on the current pace of shipments, large-volume arrivals of cobalt intermediate products at port may be delayed to June-July. After downstream orders become clear and procurement demand is released, intermediate product prices will still have upside room. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to export progress in the DRC and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, the spot market for cobalt sulphate operated steadily, with no significant price fluctuations, and overall continued to move sideways within a narrow range. Supply side, the continued tightness in raw materials supported smelter quotations, with the mainstream quotation range stable at 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the week, a small number of enterprises made low-priced shipments at 91,000-95,000 yuan/mt due to financial reporting and funding pressure, but these enterprises have now basically completed cash realization. Demand remained mediocre, as downstream enterprises were still cautious about expectations for subsequent orders, and their own raw material inventory remained ample, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. They only purchased small volumes of low-priced cargoes as needed, and overall market trading activity was weak. In the short term, the market remained in an inventory digestion cycle, with buyers and sellers in a stalemate, making large price swings unlikely. In the long term, uncertainty over raw material supply from the DRC will still support the cost side. As downstream inventories are effectively depleted, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to gradually rebound and recover.

Raw material side, spot lithium carbonate prices began to rise this week, while cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices remained temporarily stable.

SMM March 31 News: Raw material side, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated this week, cobalt sulphate prices dropped slightly, and nickel sulphate prices were temporarily stable.

Continued Weak Supply-Demand Pattern for Nickel Intermediate Products, Stable Coefficient, Absolute Prices Rose Driven by Higher Nickel Prices