[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, costs edged down slightly, coke producers' profits improved somewhat, and the overall operating rate remained moderate. However, downstream purchasing sentiment was average, the shipment pace of some coke producers slowed down, and inventory pressure persisted to some extent. On the demand side, steel mills' profitability did not improve significantly, and the procurement pace of some steel mills slowed down, with purchase as needed remaining the main approach for coke. Overall, the coke market may remain temporarily stable next week, and expectations for price cuts have temporarily dissipated.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Struggled to Break Out of Rangebound Trading, Spot Market Held Prices Steady While Actively Shipping SMM News, March 13: SS futures remained in the doldrums. However, after opening higher in the night session, SS fluctuated downward, with the pace of pullback accelerating further in the afternoon, and closed at 14,190 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by fluctuations in futures, quotations were largely stable, with limited changes during the week. Although the recovery in downstream demand and cargo pick-up of previous orders provided support, and stainless steel social inventory stopped rising and pulled back this week, market expectations remained mediocre, with merchants mainly holding prices steady while actively making shipments. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated stronger. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 stood at 14,275 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 245-445 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi were all basically stable; for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were basically stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted basically stable in Wuxi; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable. Entering the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April,” the stainless steel market ushered in a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually recovering and inquiry and purchase activity having picked up notably recently. However, stainless steel spot prices overall remained basically stable, with no obvious fluctuations. End-user procurement mainly followed rigid demand, and a full-scale peak-season boom had yet to emerge, while wait-and-see sentiment still lingered in the market. On the futures side, affected by Yi...

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke producers' profits were weak, coupled with the relatively small room for coal mines to offer concessions, which did not fully restore coke producers' profits. As a result, their willingness to increase output was low, and they maintained normal production. On the demand side, the Two Sessions are about to conclude, and steel mills that had previously imposed voluntary production restrictions are expected to resume production, which may increase demand for coke. However, due to the slow destocking speed of finished steel products, steel mills remained cautious toward coke and adopted a purchase-as-needed strategy. In summary, with steel mills purchasing cautiously and coke producers' cost downside room limited, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Pulled Back and Fluctuated Around 7.3]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio pulled back and fluctuated around 7.3, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, easing inflation concerns boosted a rebound in zinc prices; subsequently, investors stayed cautious about an escalation of the Middle East conflict, while a stronger US dollar, together with US February CPI coming in line with expectations and still-sticky inflation, drove LME zinc to fluctuate lower.

In contrast to the typical price declines seen during the traditional spring festival low season from January to February in previous years, China’s domestic manganese sulfate market has recently staged an independent rally of “strong performance amid the off-season”, with prices rising steadily along the way.

This week, China’s domestic manganese-based battery materials market has shown a differentiated operation trend. The price of battery-grade manganese tetroxide has slightly declined, the price of electrolytic manganese dioxide has slightly increased, and lithium manganate has maintained a weak balance of supply and demand.

SMM News, March 6: This week, LME lead opened at $1,940/mt. Early in the session, affected by the rapid fading of geopolitical safe-haven sentiment and broad weakness across the nonferrous metals sector, lead prices fluctuated downward and once fell to $1,927.5/mt. Subsequently, market sentiment somewhat recovered, and lead prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,949/mt. As bullish momentum weakened, prices turned weaker again and finally closed at $1,933/mt, down $13/mt from the beginning of the week, a decline of about 0.67%. This week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at around 16,780 yuan/mt, and early-session lead prices climbed to 16,815 yuan/mt. Subsequently, affected by both weak supply and weak demand in the spot market, prices fluctuated downward. During the session, lead prices rebounded slightly, but bearish strength remained strong, and the price center moved lower again. Near the close, after consolidating at lows, lead prices fell to 16,550 yuan/mt and finally closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, down about 220 yuan/mt from the beginning of the week, a decline of about 1.31%. 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

At the start of this week, US nonfarm payrolls for February unexpectedly declined, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts rebounded somewhat, briefly boosting copper prices. Trump then signaled that tensions between the US and Iran might ease, sending oil prices lower and the US dollar weaker, which triggered a phased rebound in copper prices. However, after oil tankers in the Gulf region came under attack and Iran stated that it would continue to close the Strait of Hormuz, tensions in the Middle East escalated again. Rising crude oil prices lifted safe-haven sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. At the same time, US February CPI came in line with expectations, and market bets on interest rate cuts within the year were scaled back markedly, weakening expectations for macro liquidity. In terms of positioning, bulls continued to reduce positions, and capital turned more cautious. Overall, macro uncertainty and repeated shifts in interest rate cut expectations remain intertwined, and copper prices are still likely to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Fundamentals side, TC in the copper concentrates market was still falling. Recent mine tender prices pointed to a median of -$60/mt. For copper cathode, the inventory buildup showed a turning point, and the import window opened slightly. According to SMM, downstream operating activity was more active than expected, with active pricing below the copper price range of 100,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is expected to remain unchanged, and geopolitical tensions are still expected to provide strong support to the US dollar, leaving significant short-term resistance for copper prices. However, fundamentals are supporting copper prices, which are expected to remain fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,800/mt and $13,200/mt, and SHFE copper between 99,000 yuan/mt and 101,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as delivery approaches, spot market trading logic will fluctuate with the price spread between futures contracts and funding costs, and is expected to gradually rise next week. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt.

On March 13, the average price of SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate rose slightly.

[Weak Spot Demand During the Week, Wider Spot Discounts]: This week, spot discounts in Ningbo widened, with the weekly average price down 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday this week, spot prices in Ningbo against the 2604 contract were at a discount of 100 yuan/mt and at a premium of 20 yuan/mt against Shanghai, with the premium against Shanghai fluctuating during the week..