[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: The SHFE/LME Price Ratio Continued to Weaken, and Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from overseas prices, and the backwardation structure was expected to persist in the short term. China was in a phase of high inventory + weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum was clearly weaker than that outside China. Amid diverging domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Alloy Prices Continued to Hover at Highs, While Market Demand Was Significantly Suppressed] This week, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued to rise, but the pace of demand follow-up was relatively slow. In the short term, raw material costs remained at high levels, providing strong support for ADC12 prices; however, if prices continue to rise, the suppressive effect of high prices on demand will become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, as operating rates gradually recover, there are also expectations of a mild increase on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on the pace of downstream order release, the pressure on the market from the supply recovery process, and the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Affected by Macro Disturbances, LME Zinc Maintained Wide Swings] LME zinc opened at $3,316/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,331.50/mt, after which prices fell rapidly. It then rose and recovered the losses, but during European trading hours, as bears reduced open interest, LME zinc quickly dipped to $3,284/mt. In the night session, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, LME zinc gradually recouped the losses and returned to fluctuate above the average price line, finally closing down at $3,314.50/mt, down $1/mt, or 0.03%. Trading volume decreased to 82,887 lots, and open interest increased by 527 lots to 217,000 lots.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,360 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly touched a high of 24,390 yuan/mt, then quickly fell to a low of 24,205 yuan/mt. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound and finally closed down at 24,240 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.25%. Trading volume decreased to 35,766 lots, while open interest increased by 1,359 lots to 74,085 lots.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke producers' profits were weak, coupled with the relatively small room for coal mines to offer concessions, which did not fully restore coke producers' profits. As a result, their willingness to increase output was low, and they maintained normal production. On the demand side, the Two Sessions are about to conclude, and steel mills that had previously imposed voluntary production restrictions are expected to resume production, which may increase demand for coke. However, due to the slow destocking speed of finished steel products, steel mills remained cautious toward coke and adopted a purchase-as-needed strategy. In summary, with steel mills purchasing cautiously and coke producers' cost downside room limited, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Aluminum Prices Strengthened This Week, Rising Costs Drove Up ADC12 Prices

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. It touched a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, then the center moved lower to a low of $12,929/mt, and finally closed at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume came in at 17,000 lots, down 235 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 304,000 lots, up 279 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting an increase in bears' positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt at the open, then the center moved lower to a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume came in at 26,000 lots, down 62,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 189,000 lots, down 3,320 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting a reduction in bulls' positions overall.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937.5/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the intraday moving average. After entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,945.5/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels before pulling back to a low of $1,932/mt. Before the close, it edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, and finally closed at $1,935.5/mt, down $3/mt, or 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/mt. After dipping to 16,550 yuan/mt in early trading, it rebounded and consolidated near the intraday moving average, finally closing at 16,595 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.21%. On the macro front: The fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in Beijing. The meeting voted to adopt the resolution on the government work report and reviewed and approved the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, charting the course for economic and social development over the next five years. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that although the February nonfarm payrolls report released last week came in weaker than expected, the mild pullback in initial jobless claims indicated that the scale of corporate layoffs remained limited, with employers still more inclined to retain workers. This eased market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labour market. After the data release, major US stock indexes maintained their declines, while energy stocks were among the few sectors that rose due to a sharp increase in oil prices. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. The center of SHFE lead moved further lower, and suppliers shipped in line with market conditions. In addition, with delivery approaching, some suppliers became less willing to sell, and quotations appeared somewhat firmer, with significantly fewer transactions at large discounts. Among them, ex-factory quotations in major primary lead producing areas were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, circulation of spot cargo in the secondary lead market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased under long-term contracts, with limited spot order replenishment, while some purchased as needed. Trading in the spot market was subdued on both sides. Inventory: As of March 12, LME lead inventory fell by 375 mt to 284,500 mt; as of March 12, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued its accumulation trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Approaching the weekend, operating rates at primary lead smelters in Hunan gradually resumed, though they had not yet returned to full production, and primary lead quotations in Hunan and Guangdong remained relatively firm. As the delivery date of the SHFE lead 2603 contract approached, suppliers were shifting inventory to delivery warehouses one after another, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to become more visible. With more imported lead arriving at ports and China refined lead supply gradually recovering, spot cargo in the spot market was relatively ample. Downstream enterprises had more procurement options, actively negotiated prices, and bought the dip. In the short term, the accumulation trend in social inventory of lead ingots is expected to be difficult to reverse, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Held Up Well, Spot Prices Remained Stable with Just-in-Time Procurement Dominating SMM News, March 12: SS futures showed a firm sideways movement. As geopolitical tensions in Iran continued to escalate and the US restarted the tariff war, macro news still had a notable disruptive effect on futures, and SS futures had yet to show a clear direction, closing at 14,245 yuan/mt by the midday break. In the spot market, affected by the sideways movement in futures, spot quotations continued to hold steady. Although the market has entered the traditional peak consumption season and downstream demand has recovered somewhat, expectations of high supply capped sentiment, limiting market acceptance of high-priced cargoes. Downstream players mainly made just-in-time procurement, while traders actively shipped goods for destocking. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated higher. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,290 yuan/mt, up 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi stood at 230-430 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi were generally stable; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, average prices in Wuxi and Foshan both held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi remained stable; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotations held steady; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also stable. As the market entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," the stainless steel market saw a window for demand recovery. The downstream side gradually resumed work and production after the Chinese New Year holiday, and demand showed a trend of gradual recovery. However, although transactions improved from the previous period, the market still did not show the briskness typical of the peak season, and end-user procurement was mainly...

[Market Sentiment Remained Primarily Cautious, Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices Might Continue to Hold Steady Next Week] This week, grain-oriented silicon steel quotations were temporarily stable, with only limited recovery in transactions. HRC futures strengthened and then fluctuated this week, but Baowu's base prices for grain-oriented silicon steel in April remained stable, overall market sentiment stayed cautious, and procurement demand was unlikely to be released.